Turn Off Ads?
Page 5 of 7 FirstFirst 1234567 LastLast
Results 61 to 75 of 97

Thread: Early NL Central predictions

  1. #61
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    2,913

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Based on advanced statistical analysis far too complicated to explain in a single post:

    Reds 162-0
    Pirates 81-81
    Brewers 71-91
    Cubs 71-91
    Cardinals 0-162
    Sweep!
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #62
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    538

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I don't think it's "ripe for failure" at all. I just think if Cards fans are expecting full seasons worth of production from Wacha, Miller and Kelly at the same pace they got last season, they're going to be disappointed. Yes they've got depth to go to. But it's a bunch of kids
    I wouldn't discount these guys because of their age. Miller, Kelly, Rosenthal have two seasons of playoff baseball under their belts, and the rest of the young guns have at least one season of pressure cooker baseball under their belts.

    The frustrating part of watching the Cards pitching staff is that their fans don't have to expect those guys to put out a full seasons worth of production. They are young and are being stretched out (Miller showed some lack of endurance last year ?). If a guy starts to falter ( like Westbrook/Lynn in 2013) or is injured (Westbrook/Garcia in 2013), they can just reach into their talent pool that they seasoned pretty well last year, and have a starter caliber pitcher ready for the rotation. I'm sure they'd take Lance Lynn's first half, and Joe Kelly's second half this year again. Bleh.... that depth really bailed them out last year....and they didn't lose a single bit of it in the offseason.

  4. #63
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Denver
    Posts
    10,852

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    I've made enough silly predictions on this site that I'm not going to touch this question until the teams have finished making moves. It seems pretty close among the top 3 teams but the Cardinals seem like the safest pick due to their depth. I also think the Cubs are players for Tanaka which obviously won't make them win the division but could swing their record 5+ games above a merely decent starter.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  5. #64
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Winston-Salem, NC
    Posts
    200

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Based on advanced statistical analysis far too complicated to explain in a single post:

    Reds 162-0
    Pirates 81-81
    Brewers 71-91
    Cubs 71-91
    Cardinals 0-162


    Wow, just wow! Thanks for the chuckle this morning.

  6. #65
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    Cincy
    Posts
    1,042

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    The basis is the statistical evidence of the last 10,000+ who have played Major League Baseball. Everyone's production is on a bell-curve in their career, and our RH bats are still on the upswing of that bell-curve, except for Phillips, who is on the down-swing.

    It's Baseball Statistics 101.

    I welcome you to revisit this at the end of 2014 for proof. The OPS's of 2014 for each of our RH bats can be plotted on a bell-curve along with the OPS' of each other year of their careers, and the 2014 plots and career plots of their OPS' should fall right in line with the curve that has already been established by the 10,000+ Major Leaguers who came before them....steroids era not being a part of the equation.
    Ludwick would also be on the downswing. That leaves 2 headed down and 3 (Cozart, Frazier, Mes) headed up. So even if we assume the bell-curve as gospel, that's 3 up 2 down.

    Anyway, pitching is still where it's at and I still think our pitching is much better than Pittsburgh. I think whether the Cardinals are in reach has a lot to do with predicting the health of Cueto.

    For now, I'll say
    Cards 94-68
    Reds 91-71
    Pirates 83-79
    Brewers 77-85
    Cubs 63-99

  7. #66
    Member DannyB's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Fort Lauderdale
    Posts
    806

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Here is SI's early prediction

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...14/?xid=si_mlb



    8. The Reds will finish fourth in the NL Central.

    Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...#ixzz2pQpxCJZQ

  8. #67
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    378

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    thats what happens when the main activity is signing a back up catcher

  9. #68
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,092

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    The 2012-13 Cardinals offseason, summarized:

    Oct: Lost Lance Berkman, Kyle Lohse and Brian Fuentes to FA
    Nov: Signed C Rob Johnson
    Dec: Signed RP Randy Choate, UT Ty Wigginton; Traded Skip Schumaker to LA for a AA SS
    Jan: Signd SS Ronny Cedeno

    Now, the Cardinals last year were not necessarily in the same situation as the Reds are this year, but they were coming off an 88 win season and did virtually nothing.

    We really need to stop acting like not making big moves in the offseason is a sign of stupidity, laziness, or irresponsibility. It's not like Walt simply missed out on guys who were good fits for this roster and payroll.

    I know we'd all like to see a little creativity on the trade front, but of all the GMs in baseball, if there's one guy who you can't judge based on the rumors that reach the internet, it's Jocketty. No, the Reds are not going to sign Nelson Cruz or Tanaka. But let's stop acting like a) The offseason is over and b) The lack of major activity is some great disaster.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. Likes:

    Captain Hook (01-05-2014), jimbo (01-04-2014), OGB (01-08-2014), Old school 1983 (01-05-2014), REDREAD (01-08-2014), RiverRat13 (01-04-2014), _Sir_Charles_ (01-05-2014)

  11. #69
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Lexington
    Posts
    6,227

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Cards 96-66
    Bucs 92-70
    Reds 88-74

  12. #70
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,062

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    4th. Just behind Milwaukee, holding off the Cubs.

  13. #71
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,873

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The 2012-13 Cardinals offseason, summarized:

    Oct: Lost Lance Berkman, Kyle Lohse and Brian Fuentes to FA
    Nov: Signed C Rob Johnson
    Dec: Signed RP Randy Choate, UT Ty Wigginton; Traded Skip Schumaker to LA for a AA SS
    Jan: Signd SS Ronny Cedeno

    Now, the Cardinals last year were not necessarily in the same situation as the Reds are this year, but they were coming off an 88 win season and did virtually nothing.

    We really need to stop acting like not making big moves in the offseason is a sign of stupidity, laziness, or irresponsibility. It's not like Walt simply missed out on guys who were good fits for this roster and payroll.

    I know we'd all like to see a little creativity on the trade front, but of all the GMs in baseball, if there's one guy who you can't judge based on the rumors that reach the internet, it's Jocketty. No, the Reds are not going to sign Nelson Cruz or Tanaka. But let's stop acting like a) The offseason is over and b) The lack of major activity is some great disaster.
    If the Reds had the Cardinals players, they wouldn't need to do anything either. The Cards had Carpenter and Adams ready to assume bigger roles and tons of pitchers ready to move in. The Reds have Cingrani and are counting on him. The difference is that the Reds are forcing in 2 kids, who haven't really had the success to deserve it, into an offense that was iffy in the first place. If Mesoraco and Hamilton had shown any of what they were in AA last season, I'd be perfectly content with status quo and letting them take over. But one has failed in the majors 2 years running and the other failed at AAA and the major moves to fix the problems the team had last year is to give them big roles in 2014.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #72
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,092

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If the Reds had the Cardinals players, they wouldn't need to do anything either. The Cards had Carpenter and Adams ready to assume bigger roles and tons of pitchers ready to move in. The Reds have Cingrani and are counting on him. The difference is that the Reds are forcing in 2 kids, who haven't really had the success to deserve it, into an offense that was iffy in the first place. If Mesoraco and Hamilton had shown any of what they were in AA last season, I'd be perfectly content with status quo and letting them take over. But one has failed in the majors 2 years running and the other failed at AAA and the major moves to fix the problems the team had last year is to give them big roles in 2014.
    It's easy to think of those things as plusses now, but let's remember what each of those guys was last winter:

    Carpenter was a 26 year old 3B with a grand total of 359 PA under his belt and who was moving to 2B for the first time in his career. His 2012 was solid but was supported by a .346 BABIP.

    After putting up 1.4 WAR in a half season in 2012, he put up 7.0 WAR in his first full season. Nobody wasn't expected that.

    Matt Adams, meanwhile, was a young masher built like a DH who bombed in a 91 PA cup of coffee in 2012. Frankly, he wasn't a huge driver of the Cards success last year.

    But Carpenter, he provided something like 3 wins more than one could reasonably have predicted.

    On top of that, the team smashed the MLB record for AVG w/ RISP, hitting .330 w/ RISP, 48 points higher than the next team and 19 points higher than the record. By comparison, they hit .269 overall. That's freaking insanely lucky and it resulted in about 50 more runs than their aggregate hitting performance suggested. No matter what anybody claims, that's not even remotely a function of a replicable skill to hit well in those situations. And yet, it drove a level of run production above and beyond what their raw performance would suggest. In 2012, they hit .264 w/ RISP with a very similar lineup.

    In any event, you get the idea. Stuff happens. The Cards had a hole at SS, a guy taking over 2B who never played there before and lost a guy from the rotation who only led them in IP (211) and ERA (2.86). The did nothing in FA and won 9 more games than they did the year before.

    Does that make me happy about our offseason his far? Of course not. But if you just go through this roster and project things out, it's pretty clear we should be in the hunt.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. Likes:

    Old school 1983 (01-05-2014), RedFanAlways1966 (01-05-2014), _Sir_Charles_ (01-05-2014)

  16. #73
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    538

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The 2012-13 Cardinals offseason, summarized:

    Oct: Lost Lance Berkman, Kyle Lohse and Brian Fuentes to FA
    Nov: Signed C Rob Johnson
    Dec: Signed RP Randy Choate, UT Ty Wigginton; Traded Skip Schumaker to LA for a AA SS
    Jan: Signd SS Ronny Cedeno

    Now, the Cardinals last year were not necessarily in the same situation as the Reds are this year, but they were coming off an 88 win season and did virtually nothing.

    We really need to stop acting like not making big moves in the offseason is a sign of stupidity, laziness, or irresponsibility. It's not like Walt simply missed out on guys who were good fits for this roster and payroll.

    I know we'd all like to see a little creativity on the trade front, but of all the GMs in baseball, if there's one guy who you can't judge based on the rumors that reach the internet, it's Jocketty. No, the Reds are not going to sign Nelson Cruz or Tanaka. But let's stop acting like a) The offseason is over and b) The lack of major activity is some great disaster.
    Solid logic, but that doesn't summarize their other roster moves which included a lot of promotions.

    The Reds aren't in the same boat. The Reds will benefit next year from healthy players.

  17. #74
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    columbus,ohio
    Posts
    2,223

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If the Reds had the Cardinals players, they wouldn't need to do anything either. The Cards had Carpenter and Adams ready to assume bigger roles and tons of pitchers ready to move in. The Reds have Cingrani and are counting on him. The difference is that the Reds are forcing in 2 kids, who haven't really had the success to deserve it, into an offense that was iffy in the first place. If Mesoraco and Hamilton had shown any of what they were in AA last season, I'd be perfectly content with status quo and letting them take over. But one has failed in the majors 2 years running and the other failed at AAA and the major moves to fix the problems the team had last year is to give them big roles in 2014.
    I'm 100% positive that if the Reds were counting on two guys that have had less than 500 major league at bats between the two of them and a few unproven pitchers to help improve on an 88 win season we wouldn't see any less second guessing than we already are.

  18. #75
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    columbus,ohio
    Posts
    2,223

    Re: Early NL Central predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If the Reds had the Cardinals players, they wouldn't need to do anything either. The Cards had Carpenter and Adams ready to assume bigger roles and tons of pitchers ready to move in. The Reds have Cingrani and are counting on him. The difference is that the Reds are forcing in 2 kids, who haven't really had the success to deserve it, into an offense that was iffy in the first place. If Mesoraco and Hamilton had shown any of what they were in AA last season, I'd be perfectly content with status quo and letting them take over. But one has failed in the majors 2 years running and the other failed at AAA and the major moves to fix the problems the team had last year is to give them big roles in 2014.
    Well we have Ludwick and Schumaker. Colby Rasmus still might be a possibility as well.

    Would 3 Cardinal player be enough to put the Reds over the top? I smell a poll question! How many Cardinal player would it take for the Reds to win a world series?


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25