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Thread: Sickels 2014 rankings

  1. #16
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Preliminary grades now posted:

    one A
    three B+
    four B-
    seven C+
    twenty C

    Not hard to speculate on the top grades. The B- and C+ will be interesting. All together, a little better than I was expecting.

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  3. #17
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    Preliminary grades now posted:

    one A
    three B+
    four B-
    seven C+
    twenty C

    Not hard to speculate on the top grades. The B- and C+ will be interesting. All together, a little better than I was expecting.
    I'm assuming Stephenson is the A and Hamilton, Winker and Ervin are the B+ guys. I'm curious about the B-/C+ group, because I have a ton of trouble sorting out between 5 and 15.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #18
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Preliminary Grade Breakdown is up
    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/...rade-breakdown

    35 players
    One Grade A
    Three Grade B+
    Zero Grade B
    Four Grade B-
    Seven Grade C+
    20 Grade C

    There is some play there but it does strike me as a top-heavy system. Feel free to speculate on the grades of course. That's the point of this!
    Edit; ooops missed this page of the thread. I assume the Grade A is Corky or Stephenson. We know BHam is b+ based on sickels comment to one of the postings.
    Last edited by klw; 01-21-2014 at 12:52 PM.

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  6. #19
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    What Grades Mean:
    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...at-grades-mean

    Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Grade A prospects should develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

    Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

    Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who have a significant question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

    Also note that there is diversity within each category and there are many borderline cases. A player rated as a Grade B+ may every well become a star, but there may be something that gives some doubt at this stage of his career, for example a player with great tools but who lacks refinement, experience, or who we just don't have a lot of data for. A Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.

    Again, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

  7. #20
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'm assuming Stephenson is the A and Hamilton, Winker and Ervin are the B+ guys. I'm curious about the B-/C+ group, because I have a ton of trouble sorting out between 5 and 15.
    Holmberg's a safe bet for B-. Sickels had him as a B last year. Corcino had been a B+, so it will be interesting to see how far he drops. Travieso had been a B-, but Sickels likes performance so I'd expect a drop there. Moscot had been a C+ and could bounce up. SMB also had been C+ and possibly could be in for a bump (at the very least he should maintain where he was).
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  8. #21
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    My guess:

    Stephenson A

    Hamilton, Ervin and Winker B+

    Y-Rod, Holmberg, Lorenzen and Lively B-

    Corcino, Rogers, Barnhart, Moscot, Contreras, SMB and Travieso C+ (Travieso and Lively could be flipped).

    (edited per my prior omission of Travieso; also upgraded Lively. This is my guess on Sickels as well as how I would grade them personally.)
    Last edited by Benihana; 01-21-2014 at 04:23 PM.
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  9. #22
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    My guess:

    Stephenson A

    Hamilton, Ervin and Winker B+

    Y-Rod, Holmberg, Lorenzen and Mejias-Brean B-

    Corcino, Rogers, Barnhart, Moscot, Contreras, and Lively C+ (Lively and SMB could be flipped). Not sure who the last C+ is, likely either Ortiz, Arias, Waldrop or Garrett.
    Travieso? I'm guessing he's a B- bumping SMB to C+. I have Rogers ahead of Ortiz and Arias, but it wouldn't surprise me if Rogers was a C with Ortiz and Arias as C+. I have Ortiz ahead of Barnhart already.
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  10. #23
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Travieso? I'm guessing he's a B- bumping SMB to C+. I have Rogers ahead of Ortiz and Arias, but it wouldn't surprise me if Rogers was a C with Ortiz and Arias as C+. I have Ortiz ahead of Barnhart already.
    Yep, see my edit above. The last few I mentioned are likely C's. I made Lively B- and Travieso C+.
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  11. #24
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Yep, see my edit above. The last few I mentioned are likely C's. I made Lively B- and Travieso C+.
    I'd be mildly in shock if Travieso gets above a C+. Holmberg, Lorenzen and Yorman are probably the safe bets for B-. Of those three, I'd say Lorenzen is the one with the biggest chance of dropping to C+ (Sickels often takes a cautious approach to guys who struggle out of the gate), though I expect his raw tools will keep him in the B-.The 4th guy is where the mystery lies. Could be Lively, Moscot, Contreras or SMB. All four have cases to make.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  12. #25
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'd be mildly in shock if Travieso gets above a C+. Holmberg, Lorenzen and Yorman are probably the safe bets for B-. Of those three, I'd say Lorenzen is the one with the biggest chance of dropping to C+ (Sickels often takes a cautious approach to guys who struggle out of the gate), though I expect his raw tools will keep him in the B-.The 4th guy is where the mystery lies. Could be Lively, Moscot, Contreras or SMB. All four have cases to make.
    If it isn't Lively, I would be shocked. He talked Lively up quite a bit the other day, so I get the feeling he really likes him.

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    HokieRed (01-21-2014), M2 (01-21-2014), RedlegJake (01-21-2014)

  14. #26
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    I think an A and 3 B+'s is pretty good. With a little luck you are talking about maybe one of the 4 becoming a superstar, 1 becoming a star and 1 becoming a league average player. All of them should end the year in at least AA, and a few may end in AAA.

    So, there does look to be some help close.

  15. #27
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    I think an A and 3 B+'s is pretty good. With a little luck you are talking about maybe one of the 4 becoming a superstar, 1 becoming a star and 1 becoming a league average player.
    That's not a little luck, that's a whole heaping mess of luck.

    I'd even say one star + one league average + two washouts is more than a little luck.

    One league average + one useful bench/bullpen spare part + two washouts is probably the norm.

    Hopefully the Reds beat the norm and get a star out of the deal or two league average guys.

  16. #28
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    I think ALL 4 are likely to be at least regular major leaguers for a while. The whole thing about A and B+ rankings is exactly that. Their wash rate is low except for injury cases. The washout rate gets much higher as you go down the letter grades. I'd guess maybe 10% of C players make the big leagues for more than a cup of coffee.
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  17. #29
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    I wonder what position has the lowest washout rate for prospects?

    Corner OF has got to be up there. Ervin and Winker seem like safe bets to become major leaguer regulars. Stephenson too so long as he stays healthy. Hamilton is the wild card IMO.
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  18. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I wonder what position has the lowest washout rate for prospects?

    Corner OF has got to be up there. Ervin and Winker seem like safe bets to become major leaguer regulars. Stephenson too so long as he stays healthy. Hamilton is the wild card IMO.
    I haven't seen a study as far as guys already in the minor leagues, but I have seen studies showing first round draft picks, and the safest was college third basemen, while catchers (high school or college) were the biggest wash outs (they were within 1% of each other).

    It would be interesting to see the washout rates over the last say 15 years of BA and Sickels ranked guys.

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