Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 62

Thread: Sickels 2014 rankings

  1. #31
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    4,213

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I think ALL 4 are likely to be at least regular major leaguers for a while. The whole thing about A and B+ rankings is exactly that. Their wash rate is low except for injury cases.
    Daniel Corcino was a B+ last year.

    Do you think he is a good bet to be a major league starter?

    Go back and look at some of the rankings for the last decade. There are tons of A and B+ prospects who never pan out. Sure, they don't wash out as often as C prospects (almost all of whom wash out), but they still wash out at high rate. I'd guess that only half of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball for any given year ever amount to anything. A 50% washout rate beats the heck out of a 95% washout rate, but it's still a darn high hurdle for a prospect to clear.

  2. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (01-22-2014)

  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #32
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    4,213

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I wonder what position has the lowest washout rate for prospects?

    Corner OF has got to be up there. Ervin and Winker seem like safe bets to become major leaguer regulars. Stephenson too so long as he stays healthy. Hamilton is the wild card IMO.
    I'd argue corner OF and 1B have some of the highest washout rates, because their ability to stick hinges entirely on their bats. Defense oriented guys who play up the middle positions can hang around in the majors for a very long time even if they can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag.

    A good defensive shortstop always has value. A good defensive LF? Not so much.

  5. #33
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,232

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    I do think Corcino is a good bet to be a major league reliever. I get your point but prospect ranking is fluid, too. Few guys who rate an A washout from that perch - they get injured or reach a level they no longer continue to advance so part of it is also what level a prospect is at. An A grade at A ball is not a good bet, I'd agree with your 50% at that level. An A at AAA is much more sure - not perfect (ala Brandon Larson) but much higher odds.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

  6. #34
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    14

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    Daniel Corcino was a B+ last year.

    Do you think he is a good bet to be a major league starter?

    Go back and look at some of the rankings for the last decade. There are tons of A and B+ prospects who never pan out. Sure, they don't wash out as often as C prospects (almost all of whom wash out), but they still wash out at high rate. I'd guess that only half of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball for any given year ever amount to anything. A 50% washout rate beats the heck out of a 95% washout rate, but it's still a darn high hurdle for a prospect to clear.
    I think Corcino projects as a #3 guy on the Reds.
    Including Stephenson and Cingrani I believe the Reds have the best young pitchers in the Central and I don't think it's particularly close.

    Cingrani > Miller
    Stephenson >> Wacha
    Corcino > Martinez.

    Coupled with the Reds superior development for hitters(Bham is the best non-pitching prospect in the Central, for example) I suspect that the Reds farm system will be the driving force behind the continuation of the current Reds dynasty.

  7. #35
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    7,706

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    I'd even say one star + one league average + two washouts is more than a little luck.
    Again, I'm reminded that the Reds have just been the recipients of more than a little luck in this department. I really did not expect all four of their blue chippers from awhile back (Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto) to be major leaguers, let alone the players they are. Depending how you define it, you've got one superstar, one repeat all-star and two borderline all-stars from the same group. And certainly no washouts... and really not any average major leaguers at this point (Bailey is the only one who has floated around that level, but he looks to be on the uptick now).

    (I think at the time Sickels had them as two A's and two A-'s, but still, the Reds were very fortunate).
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  8. #36
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    7,706

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by RealitySetsIn View Post
    Cingrani > Miller
    Stephenson >> Wacha
    Corcino > Martinez.
    I want to believe you, but this strikes me as a lot of homerism. Miller and Cingrani are comparable, but I don't think that's a clear advantage to the Reds. Wacha has already pitched in the majors and Stephenson hasn't. Corcino isn't really better than many pitchers right now after last year's slide.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  9. #37
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Hamilton, OH
    Posts
    2,630

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by RealitySetsIn View Post
    I think Corcino projects as a #3 guy on the Reds.
    Including Stephenson and Cingrani I believe the Reds have the best young pitchers in the Central and I don't think it's particularly close.

    Cingrani > Miller
    Stephenson >> Wacha
    Corcino > Martinez.

    Coupled with the Reds superior development for hitters(Bham is the best non-pitching prospect in the Central, for example) I suspect that the Reds farm system will be the driving force behind the continuation of the current Reds dynasty.
    Cingrani = Miller
    Wacha = Stephenson (but Stephenson is higher risk)
    Rosenthal >> Martinez >>>>> Corcino

    Oscar Taveras, Javier Baez, Gregory Polanco, Kris Bryant and Albert Almora are all higher-rated NL Central prospects than Billy Hamilton in my opinion. Jorge Soler is equal to Billy Hamilton.

    The Brewers are the only minor league system in the NL Central that is not better than the Reds' system right now.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 01-22-2014 at 05:24 PM.

  10. #38
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    14

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I want to believe you, but this strikes me as a lot of homerism. Miller and Cingrani are comparable, but I don't think that's a clear advantage to the Reds. Wacha has already pitched in the majors and Stephenson hasn't. Corcino isn't really better than many pitchers right now after last year's slide.
    Miller strikes me as a flash in the pan. He hasn't had the sustained success in the majors that Cingrani has.

    Wacha isn't nearly as good as everyone thinks he is, and his performance all last year and the year prior was a fluke. I expect him to regress to a 4.50 ERA career pitcher with a K rate under 7 per 9 innings. Stephenson will be a Cy Young contender in 2 years.

    Martinez' has weak stuff; he basically lacks any plus pitches. Corcino is younger, and has better pitches across the board.

  11. #39
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    4,213

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I do think Corcino is a good bet to be a major league reliever. I get your point but prospect ranking is fluid, too. Few guys who rate an A washout from that perch - they get injured or reach a level they no longer continue to advance so part of it is also what level a prospect is at. An A grade at A ball is not a good bet, I'd agree with your 50% at that level. An A at AAA is much more sure - not perfect (ala Brandon Larson) but much higher odds.
    Three of the four Reds guys mentioned are at A ball. That's why I am skeptical.

  12. #40
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    14

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Wacha = Stephenson (but Stephenson is higher risk)
    I really believe that a guy that put up a 4.86 ERA and a 4.94 FIP and in AA is significantly better than a guy that a 2.73 ERA and a 3.15 FIP across 20 major league starts last season, including the postseason.

    Stephenson has simply shown himself to be better.

  13. #41
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Hamilton, OH
    Posts
    2,630

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    I'm sensing a troll.

  14. #42
    Trying not to be that guy
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Indianapolis
    Posts
    4

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    I'm sensing a troll.
    Good call. I was crafting a response, but I think you nailed it.

  15. #43
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    14

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    I'm sensing a troll.
    No more or less than those in last year's prediction thread where the following things were claimed:
    Bruce and Votto would each hit 40+ HRs
    Cueto, Latos, and Bailey would finish in the top 5 for Cy Young.
    The cardinals wouldn't win 70 games.
    The reds would win a playoff series.

    Historically, nothing I claimed is any more egregious than those claims.
    Last edited by RealitySetsIn; 01-22-2014 at 05:51 PM. Reason: Spelling

  16. #44
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    1,065

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    Top twenty is now posted.

  17. #45
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    1,065

    Re: Sickels 2014 rankings

    For the most part similar to RZ. Surprises were no Franklin and no Ortiz. Also, Rahier is back and Rosa is gone. Crabbe was added. Besides Rosa, Duran was removed from the preliminary list.

    I think his summary nailed it. He evaluates the organization as being around the middle and notes that there are a number of C's at low levels that could make the system look much better in a year.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25