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Thread: 2014 Plan.....Now....

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    2014 Plan.....Now....

    Ok, we are coming up on Spring Training within a month, in the heart of arbitration cases now, and little to no movement in trades or free agency I believe we are right around 80 million right now, with a project 20-26 million more after arb deals are done. With this weeks articles coming out about Walt possibly feeling good about a Homer extension, assuming he is using money that was available for a Choo signing if Choo opted to come back here. It appears that Big Bob has room to go 110-120 million in payroll, I have to think this is because of the new tv deal kicking in.....

    I'm going to try and stick with guys/news we've actually been connected to from Twitter, MLBtraderumors, Fay, Ctrent, etc, particularly with the 2014 plan.

    Here is Cots Contracts for Reds link for reference:
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...ncinnati-reds/

    2014 before season
    1. Sign Homer 7 years, with opt out at 5 year for 15/105, front loaded in first few years.

    2. Sign Grady Sizemore to minor league deal for CF try out, not sure if he makes team for opening day if that deal has to be restructured for major league deal with incentives.

    -I don't see a deal for BP, or a signing of Arroyo now, unless Bailey doesn't sign long term, they may settle on 1 year with him, sign Arroyo, which may open up room to try and trade Cueto.

    -Is Cuetos contract still cheap enough, and he still good enough to be used partnered up with BP to get a LF with RH power back. Would the Bluejays be interested in this deal for Bautista?

    2014 Deadline If Competitve
    1. Find a way to trade off either Marshall or Broxton, to free up some of that bullpen salary. Trade deadline period is the best time to try and shop one of them off......

    2. Need to free up some cash to sign Latos next offseason with a backloaded contract to not run consecutively with Bailey.

    Hope for production from Frazier, Cozart, and Mesoraco to step up. I liked Cozart and Mesoracos production in the latter half of the season. Hope for a new Sizemore to play most of season while Billy still gains some more experience.

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsville View Post
    2014 before season
    1. Sign Homer 7 years, with opt out at 5 year for 15/105, front loaded in first few years.
    I'm sure the Reds would jump all over that.... but I'm not convinced that Homer would. They're going to have to at least match/best what Arroyo received last year. Given that Homer has front of the rotation potential and those guys have been getting 20'ish.... I'm going to say that number is way off.

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Yeah, multiple factors can come into signing extension with a current team, like Bruce, Cueto, Votto did. Does Homer like the city/area, does he just care about the $ vs being a competitive team, etc.

    In addition, I wish we could get a chart for professional players signing these deals that would show us, if you make 15 mil a year for 5 years in Cincy what is the comparable $ amount say in a place like Dallas? I know Texas has the advantage of no income taxes, but cost of living is more. If you do a comparison of those 2 cities, making 500k in Cincy, the formula says you should make 525k in Dallas. But not sure if that is an apples to apples comparison for the way pro players contracts would be structured.

    If you front load Homers deal of 20 mil first 3 years, can we afford that and sign Latos. I feel like Bruce, Votto, Cueto all signed on to reasonable dollar amounts for the city/area they live in. Probably could have made a fair amount more if a free agent, is Homer "cut" like that too as an original Reds draftee, we'll see.

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    I think if I'm Walt I like what I have & I'm going to stand pat for a couple of months to see how things shake out. That is barring a trade opportunity that's too good to pass up.

    This team, assuming health, should be good enough to stay within striking distance. I'm going to wait & make sure everyone stays healthy & performs at a playoff level. In the meantime along with evaluating my own team I'm looking around for other possible player's & deals.

    Heading into July we should be in the mix, if so I'm checking out player's that are hot & being made available from teams that are out of contention. This is when I would look to make my move.

    I'm looking at the Reds & see who is performing well, who's having a career year & who isn't performing up to snuff. Then before the trade deadline I make my move to plug in the holes.

    This gives the GM the best opportunity to make an informed decision. If you trade for a player right now just because you think he's good doesn't necessarily mean he'll help much this year. The player could get hurt in spring training or have a down year.

    Waiting till summer allows you the benefit of making sure your getting someone who is putting up good numbers NOW. This is the safest play for a small - mid market team & the one I'd be looking to make.

    The team doesn't have to be World Series caliber in April. It just needs to be good enough to be in the mix. We already have that now so I wouldn't feel pressed to make a move this early unless something too good to pass up came along.

    Besides if your just renting a player for the stretch drive it's cheaper to pick them up in June - July as you won't be responsible for the whole years salary.

    Just keep us in the race till summer then we'll pick up the pieces we need. If you have that mindset (and I believe Walt does) then we're sitting pretty right now.

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    Drugs Delaney (01-21-2014)

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    I think Bailey will get the same 5/7 deal as Kershaw which allows him to become a free agent at 32 giving him the chance to sign a 2nd contract at that time.

    I am think he will get right around 17 to 19 million a year on his first contract which is 85 to 95 million.

    His 2nd contract will more than likely be a 7 year deal in the 140 million range, he will be 39 at the end of this contract, meaning he has timed his free agency perfectly. Put the two contracts together and he will get around $230 million.

    The only for thing for him is to stay healthy during his first contract.

    I think the Reds are looking at around $80 million a year on their new TV deal. Based upon the Cleveland deal last year and the Philly deal this year. The Reds are not in the Dodgers area $200 million a year when it comes to that type of TV money.
    Last edited by bellhead; 01-19-2014 at 11:48 AM.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Wishbone C View Post
    I think if I'm Walt I like what I have & I'm going to stand pat for a couple of months to see how things shake out. That is barring a trade opportunity that's too good to pass up.

    This team, assuming health, should be good enough to stay within striking distance. I'm going to wait & make sure everyone stays healthy & performs at a playoff level. In the meantime along with evaluating my own team I'm looking around for other possible player's & deals.

    Heading into July we should be in the mix, if so I'm checking out player's that are hot & being made available from teams that are out of contention. This is when I would look to make my move.

    I'm looking at the Reds & see who is performing well, who's having a career year & who isn't performing up to snuff. Then before the trade deadline I make my move to plug in the holes.

    This gives the GM the best opportunity to make an informed decision. If you trade for a player right now just because you think he's good doesn't necessarily mean he'll help much this year. The player could get hurt in spring training or have a down year.

    Waiting till summer allows you the benefit of making sure your getting someone who is putting up good numbers NOW. This is the safest play for a small - mid market team & the one I'd be looking to make.

    The team doesn't have to be World Series caliber in April. It just needs to be good enough to be in the mix. We already have that now so I wouldn't feel pressed to make a move this early unless something too good to pass up came along.

    Besides if your just renting a player for the stretch drive it's cheaper to pick them up in June - July as you won't be responsible for the whole years salary.

    Just keep us in the race till summer then we'll pick up the pieces we need. If you have that mindset (and I believe Walt does) then we're sitting pretty right now.
    Waiting also means playing 60% of the schedule with the 7 auto outs in the line-up that they have now. By late July, they may be looking to deal guys off instead of adding if they play with these guys all year.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    ukwazoo (02-08-2014)

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Waiting also means playing 60% of the schedule with the 7 auto outs in the line-up that they have now. By late July, they may be looking to deal guys off instead of adding if they play with these guys all year.
    You mean essentially the same "7 auto outs" that have won 357 games over the last 4 years on their way to 3 playoffs & 2 division titles?

    I wouldn't bet any money on it.

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    JMac84 (01-20-2014)

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Wishbone C View Post
    You mean essentially the same "7 auto outs" that have won 357 games over the last 4 years on their way to 3 playoffs & 2 division titles?

    I wouldn't bet any money on it.
    Yeah for auto outs these guys are pretty good players. I agree there Is a lot of room for improvement in the Reds lineup, but lets not act like these guys are total bums.

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    Wishbone C (01-20-2014)

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Wishbone C View Post
    You mean essentially the same "7 auto outs" that have won 357 games over the last 4 years on their way to 3 playoffs & 2 division titles?

    I wouldn't bet any money on it.
    None of those were won with a guy who failed at AAA playing CF every day and none were done with a guy who's failed as a part timer behind the plate for two years running getting the every day job. Only last year was with Phillips descending into his decline phase, a journey I expect to get deeper in 2014. The Phillips from earlier in his career isn't the guy that will be out there from here on out IMO. The league has adjusted to Todd Frazier and I'd expect the "swing at a ball a foot outside" Frazier from 2013 more than the stud from 2012. Ludwick is 36 by mid-season and coming off of a major injury that threatens his most useful tool - his pop. Cozart isn't even a question. He's a defensive minded SS, who is passable given his occasional power, but he fits better as a bottom of the order out than as a guy who helps the offense.

    The Reds have never really played with this group of players. I'm sure some of these questions will go the Reds way, but this roster needs 75% or more of these things to go right for this offense to be competitive. I just don't see it happening. Votto and Bruce will be good. The other 7 line-up spots are likely to be real ugly.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    None of those were won with a guy who failed at AAA playing CF every day and none were done with a guy who's failed as a part timer behind the plate for two years running getting the every day job. Only last year was with Phillips descending into his decline phase, a journey I expect to get deeper in 2014. The Phillips from earlier in his career isn't the guy that will be out there from here on out IMO. The league has adjusted to Todd Frazier and I'd expect the "swing at a ball a foot outside" Frazier from 2013 more than the stud from 2012. Ludwick is 36 by mid-season and coming off of a major injury that threatens his most useful tool - his pop. Cozart isn't even a question. He's a defensive minded SS, who is passable given his occasional power, but he fits better as a bottom of the order out than as a guy who helps the offense.

    The Reds have never really played with this group of players. I'm sure some of these questions will go the Reds way, but this roster needs 75% or more of these things to go right for this offense to be competitive. I just don't see it happening. Votto and Bruce will be good. The other 7 line-up spots are likely to be real ugly.
    Hamilton is a wild card. He may struggle mightily. He also may be a lightning rod for the offense. A successful bunt is more or less a double with him. So there is some uncertainty with him but I am certain he will bring elite defense with him.

    Meso could end up in a platoon. But that platoon offensively will be better than what we had last year. Or Meso might nail down the starting spot if he can hit RHP. Either way it's an offensive upgrade.

    Cozart is fine. Offensively he produces decent numbers for his position.

    Frazier I expect to bounce back from a down year. Cueto is healthy. Chapman to get ALOT more innings and Price-Bell & the rest of the new staff to have an immediate impact.

    Plus I believe Walt will pick up a RHB sometime before the trade deadline. Sooner than later if Ludwick falters.

    Personally, I'm looking forward to the 2014 playoffs. I gotta a good feeling.

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    This team needs hitting that can stand up to pressure. The last two years should provide a clear picture of where we need to make our moves.

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    I would never, and I mean never, give a pitcher a 7 year contract. They are always just one pitch away from Tommy John surgery and missing a year and half. Also with pitchers, there usually isn't a gradual drop off in production. When they lose it, they fall off a cliff. Just a couple years ago Roy Halladay was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, now he is retired.

    Three to four years is all the Reds need with Bailey, then they have to plan on replacing him with someone younger and cheaper.

    Baker didn't want Hamilton to play yet, Baker is gone, and the front office wants to see what Hamilton can do. Expect it.

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by scotly50 View Post
    This team needs hitting that can stand up to pressure. The last two years should provide a clear picture of where we need to make our moves.
    I agree we need to upgrade hitting. But I don't think it's necessary NOW. I feel it would be better to let the season get under way & see how everyone is doing.

    Does Phillips bounce back from the injury he never seemed to get over last year?

    Does Ludwick hold up? Does Frazier explode? Does Meso find a way to hit RHP?

    Waiting till the season gets under way always you to see exactly where the holes are THIS year.

    Then you can make a better informed decision. It doesn't help much if you use your trade bait now on a guy that gets injured early or has a major down year. After you fire your bullets to get that guy, then what do you do when he doesn't work out the way you thought he would & you've already used your best trade pieces?

    I don't think Walt needs to be in a hurry, & quite frankly I don't think he is. We have plenty of time to make our move. He just needs to make sure when he does that it's a good one. And I'm confident he will.

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Wishbone C View Post
    I agree we need to upgrade hitting. But I don't think it's necessary NOW. I feel it would be better to let the season get under way & see how everyone is doing.

    Does Phillips bounce back from the injury he never seemed to get over last year?

    Does Ludwick hold up? Does Frazier explode? Does Meso find a way to hit RHP?

    Waiting till the season gets under way always you to see exactly where the holes are THIS year.

    Then you can make a better informed decision. It doesn't help much if you use your trade bait now on a guy that gets injured early or has a major down year. After you fire your bullets to get that guy, then what do you do when he doesn't work out the way you thought he would & you've already used your best trade pieces?

    I don't think Walt needs to be in a hurry, & quite frankly I don't think he is. We have plenty of time to make our move. He just needs to make sure when he does that it's a good one. And I'm confident he will.
    So if nobody hits and they struggle to stay at .500, how long into the season do you wait? The problem with waiting is that there is very little available until the All Star break. If this roster struggles for 90 to 100 games before a move presents itself, it may be too late. I think punting 60% of the season is irresponsible. A loss in May counts the same as a loss in September. There are three regular players who aren't question marks (and one of those, Zach Cozart, is a guy who won't be a plus for the offense). Hoping for so many questions to be answered positively isn't a plan. The team needs a known quantity for some of it's questionable spots.

    I've got no problem moving forward with Frazier. He's probably worth his spot even if he only repeats 2013. The Reds are stuck with Phillips and his awful contract. Hoping that his awful 2013 is more about his injury than the fact that his prime years are in the rearview mirror is really all they can do without a major restructuring. But counting on a 35 year old Ludwick coming off of injury, a guy in CF who failed in AAA and a guy behind the plate who had an OPS below .600 against RHP 2 years in a row is inexcusable. At least one of those spots needed to be solidified with somebody with more established production. The fact that they've addressed those positions with Skippy, Brayan Pena and possibly the corpse of Grady Sizemore as alternatives to the in house question marks seems like a lot more hoping to me. I get the upside. Hoping Ludwick recaptures 2012 and hoping Mesoraco and Hamilton fulfill their prospect promise all make some sense individually, but collectively those hopes coupled with the hopes involving Frazier and Phillips is just too much uncertainty for me. A player or two with established ability to contribute to the offense isn't a luxury, but a necessity that this team ignored. Not looking for All Stars, but some proven production is needed. I get the suggestion to wait so that trade pieces aren't wasted on a spot where the incumbent provides a positive answer, but waiting is risky and could sink the season if all the questions are answered negatively. I don't like the team gambling with the season like that.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-21-2014 at 03:19 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    The Reds are going to do what they almost do in the every offseason. They sign a young guy or two that has been cut from another teams 40 man roster, then they give camp invites to a few older guys that are just trying to latch onto a team, and once training camp gets under way they will sign a veteran or two that might fill some holes. It's like a broken record but I've seen it happen so many times.


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