Chapman's Role

[mth123]

Willie Wilson is a great comparison. In his age 23 to 27 seasons (when he started seeing starting playing time, he was up a couple years earlier with minimal ABs), he averaged 4.4 WAR. I'd be ecstatic if Billy can do that (and I think he's capable). Billy's WAR last year for the Reds was 0.6 without barely even playing, so I think it's safe to assume he will at the very least be positive this year (but I bet he's close to 2.5).

Of course there will be some growing pains, but there are way worse options to have, in my opinion. Speed doesn't have a long shelf life. Let's use this once in a lifetime weapon while we can.

Billy Hamilton will be 23 this season. There is plenty of time to take advantage of his speed before his 6 years of control is up. No need to rush him before he is ready. All that speed is a poor substitute for being able to hit and get on base. He didn't show the ability to do either of those things against AAA competition, what makes anyone think he'll be successful as a major leaguer at this point? Lots of AA All Stars don't do much at the big league level. Since Billy pretty much stunk at AAA, why in the world do we want him getting 600+ PAs at the top of the order at the big league level? His speed is amazing, but what you saw last year in September was him doing his thing on the bases after another player did the heavy lifting by getting on base in the first place. I'll be surprised if he gets on base at a .275 clip., Throw in some times picked-off and times caught stealing and he's going to make a lot of outs over 162 games at the top of the order. He needs to repeat AAA and show he can get on with regularity. Until he does, the team is giving a spot to a player who isn't likely to produce much.

[swaisuc]

Choo's put up a 5.2 WAR (fangraphs) last year. Billy would have to post almost a -2 WAR for that to be true. Surely you think he'll do better than that?

-2 WAR would mean the worst position player in all of MLB. I have no idea what he will do either, but I'll just say this... if that really is where he's at now, a year or 5 in AAA isn't going to make him a good major leaguer.

[bullseye]

He's a closer now, period, IMO. And I have no problem with that. I wanted him to be a starter, but that ship has sailed.

Can't be a starter when you are the master of only one pitch. The Missile is a closer.

[PERHitKing]

[QUOTE=mth123;3027610] His speed is amazing, but what you saw last year in September was him doing his thing on the bases after another player did the heavy lifting by getting on base in the first place. I'll be surprised if he gets on base at a .275 clip.QUOTE]

I would have to disagree with this statement. Billy Hamilton hit for an .368 average, going 7 for 19 with 2 doubles, and a OPS of .902. This is not to say you can expect this in 2014, but I think it definitely has shown he can perform at the major league level. The question is can he do it consistently, and I'll bet he will.

[mth123]

I would have to disagree with this statement. Billy Hamilton hit for an .368 average, going 7 for 19 with 2 doubles, and a OPS of .902. This is not to say you can expect this in 2014, but I think it definitely has shown he can perform at the major league level. The question is can he do it consistently, and I'll bet he will.

7 for 19 proves nothing. He was abysmal in AAA. Why should he be better than that in the major leagues? Show you can get on base in AAA, then get a shot in the big leagues. I like Billy on the Reds if he could fill a bench role where he backs-up at 2B, SS and CF and pinch runs like he did last season. I don't like him getting 4 or 5 PAs every day. Not yet anyhow.

[RedlegJake]

I watched Hamilton and loved what he did on the bases. Not so much what he did at the plate despite the .368 average. He appeared overmatched several times yet managed to get the bat on the ball late and ended up with shots down the line for extra bases. That won't happen consistently. Despite the gaudy stats I think if you use that as a premise for what he can do going forward you're going to be disappointed except in short spurts here and here. If he can bunt a bit more and keep the ball on the ground more he has a chance to OBP above .300. I'm hopeful, but not in the expecting it to happen kind of hopeful.