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Thread: Chapman's Role

  1. #16
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    What is the point of having an expensive closer when the reds will be a .500 ball club? Deal him now while his trade value is higher because he is still under team control for another 2 years.
    X 2

    I believe the Reds missed a golden opportunity last year because one of the top AL contenders, Tigers, had such a deficiency in this area and an owner who is desperate for a World Series ring before he dies. The Reds would have received a high return for Chapman.

    The ability to remain a top closer seems to be very elusive for many pitchers, so when you get a guy like Chapman that builds up sooooo much value on velocity (which is also an ability that seems to fade fast), to me it's a no brainer to try an move those guys for a high return..... a classic sell high scenario.

    It was a pretty unpopular opinion last year because of Chapman's dominance in that role, but I believed and still believe that the talent level in the BP is high enough that you could have converted another RP to the role without assuming too much risk.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Chapman has a guaranteed salary for 2014 of $3M plus a $1.25M signing bonus.

    He is, however, under Reds control due to service time through the 2016 season.

    He can decide whether he wants to go to arbitration next year or accept the 2015 $5M option. He will be arbitration eligible for 2015 and 2016.

    It's likely he will accept the $5M option and get a hefty arb-raise in 2016, likely around $7-9M, then he will be a free agent in 2017.

  4. #18
    Member Chuckie's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    He's a closer now, period, IMO. And I have no problem with that. I wanted him to be a starter, but that ship has sailed.

  5. #19
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by PadsFS View Post
    Chapman has a guaranteed salary for 2014 of $3M plus a $1.25M signing bonus.

    He is, however, under Reds control due to service time through the 2016 season.

    He can decide whether he wants to go to arbitration next year or accept the 2015 $5M option. He will be arbitration eligible for 2015 and 2016.

    It's likely he will accept the $5M option and get a hefty arb-raise in 2016, likely around $7-9M, then he will be a free agent in 2017.
    That $3 Million salary has converted to a signing bonus and now he goes to arb. $4.25 Million before his arb award. He'll be about $9 Million all totaled and probably more in 2015.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #20
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    What is the point of having an expensive closer when the reds will be a .500 ball club? Deal him now while his trade value is higher because he is still under team control for another 2 years.
    If I believed you that we will be a .500 ball club, I would agree with you. Since I don't, I don't.
    RALLY CAPS!

  7. #21
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    trade him he is replaceable

  8. #22
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by swaisuc View Post
    If I believed you that we will be a .500 ball club, I would agree with you. Since I don't, I don't.
    You must think they will be below .500 then, I was going high on what I think their record will be. What have the a Reds done to think they will be better?
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  9. #23
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    You must think they will be below .500 then, I was going high on what I think their record will be. What have the a Reds done to think they will be better?
    They are better than a .500 club. There is no way to convince the negative nellies, though. Not a really good rotation, not an offense that was in the top 5 in run scoring, not a bullpen that should be solid. The only thing that will clobber this team is a spate of injuries. I'd be on your train if you were saying they probably aren't going to catch the Cards as is, maybe finish behind the Pirates, but no way in baseball heck are they going to be a .500 club or below. IMO, you are way over pessimistic.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

  10. #24
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    They are better than a .500 club. There is no way to convince the negative nellies, though. Not a really good rotation, not an offense that was in the top 5 in run scoring, not a bullpen that should be solid. The only thing that will clobber this team is a spate of injuries. I'd be on your train if you were saying they probably aren't going to catch the Cards as is, maybe finish behind the Pirates, but no way in baseball heck are they going to be a .500 club or below. IMO, you are way over pessimistic.
    As the Team is made up now I think they will struggle to score runs and will have to have great years from the pitching staff to even think of contending.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  11. #25
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    You must think they will be below .500 then, I was going high on what I think their record will be. What have the a Reds done to think they will be better?
    The pitching should be at least as good with Cueto returning. The hitting basically replaces Choo with Hamilton if we do nothing else. Do you really think Choo is worth 9 more wins than Hamilton?

    In addition, I think there is a chance that Votto regains some pop a year removed from injury and Mesoraco has a pretty good shot to outproduce our catching position from last year.

    I think its a 90-92 win team, same as last year. That means a BORDERLINE playoff team. Removing Chapman could cost us a couple wins in 2014. One thing I don't want to do is remove a couple wins in the short term from a team that is right on the fence for being a playoff team or not (IMO of course).
    RALLY CAPS!

  12. Likes:

    Old school 1983 (01-16-2014), RedlegJake (01-16-2014)

  13. #26
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by swaisuc View Post
    The pitching should be at least as good with Do you really think Choo is worth 9 more wins than Hamilton?
    At least 7.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #27
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    At least 7.
    Choo's put up a 5.2 WAR (fangraphs) last year. Billy would have to post almost a -2 WAR for that to be true. Surely you think he'll do better than that?

  15. #28
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by JMac84 View Post
    Choo's put up a 5.2 WAR (fangraphs) last year. Billy would have to post almost a -2 WAR for that to be true. Surely you think he'll do better than that?
    Nope. I think he'll be a disaster. Handing a job in the big leagues to a guy who failed at AAA is baseball malpractice in my opinion. Hamilton might still be a good player, in a Willie Wilson kind of a way, but there is no reason to suspect that 2014 is when it will happen.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #29
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Nope. I think he'll be a disaster. Handing a job in the big leagues to a guy who failed at AAA is baseball malpractice in my opinion. Hamilton might still be a good player, in a Willie Wilson kind of a way, but there is no reason to suspect that 2014 is when it will happen.
    If he struggles he'll be sent back down. But I think Walt wants to give him a shot before possibly making a move on the trade market to fill CF. We'll know more at the end of spring training. If there's going to be a move that's when I would expect it to happen.

  17. #30
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    Re: Chapman's Role

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Nope. I think he'll be a disaster. Handing a job in the big leagues to a guy who failed at AAA is baseball malpractice in my opinion. Hamilton might still be a good player, in a Willie Wilson kind of a way, but there is no reason to suspect that 2014 is when it will happen.
    Willie Wilson is a great comparison. In his age 23 to 27 seasons (when he started seeing starting playing time, he was up a couple years earlier with minimal ABs), he averaged 4.4 WAR. I'd be ecstatic if Billy can do that (and I think he's capable). Billy's WAR last year for the Reds was 0.6 without barely even playing, so I think it's safe to assume he will at the very least be positive this year (but I bet he's close to 2.5).

    Of course there will be some growing pains, but there are way worse options to have, in my opinion. Speed doesn't have a long shelf life. Let's use this once in a lifetime weapon while we can.
    Last edited by JMac84; 01-17-2014 at 02:37 AM.


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