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Thread: Trade Bailey!?

  1. #1
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    Trade Bailey!?

    Am I going crazy here? I don't understand why in the world the Reds would trade Bailey now. Cueto is injury-prone, Cingrani is unproven and Arroyo is still a free agent. Latos, Cueto, Leake, Cingrani and who if Bailey is traded? We could possibly fill a OF position with Bailey but we'll just create another one in our rotation. Can someone explain to me how this helps the Red's this year?

    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...-be-difficult/

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  3. #2
    Member Larkin88's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    Am I going crazy here? I don't understand why in the world the Reds would trade Bailey now. Cueto is injury-prone, Cingrani is unproven and Arroyo is still a free agent. Latos, Cueto, Leake, Cingrani and who if Bailey is traded? We could possibly fill a OF position with Bailey but we'll just create another one in our rotation. Can someone explain to me how this helps the Red's this year?

    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...-be-difficult/
    I think the question is do you make the team worst next season (which I agree trading Bailey probably would do) and get something valuable in return to extend the window of competitiveness beyond 2014 and 2015?

    Or do you just hold the course, have him (probably) walk when he hits free agency, and take a draft pick that is probably going to be further away from contributing at an MLB level than the return a Bailey trade would bring?

    I go back and forth on the Bailey thing all the time. I have to admit, his pretty clear reluctance to sign an extension here leads me to believe he will be too expensive for the Reds to retain after next season.

    EDIT: Also, doesn't the article pretty clearly state Walt has "no intention" of moving him, anyway?
    Last edited by Larkin88; 01-07-2014 at 12:17 PM.

  4. #3
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    Bailey won't bring back much, not enough to punt 2014. 2014 Bailey + 2015 30-40th pick in draft is superior to any return he could garner this year. Just too much pitching available and he's a known FA for 2015.

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  6. #4
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    I've said them before and I'll say them again. 2 words.

    Extend
    Him
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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  8. #5
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I've said them before and I'll say them again. 2 words.

    Extend
    Him
    This. He is a horse. Keep him and Latos forever.

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  10. #6
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    I can see the logic behind trading Bailey if you pick up young SS, OF or 3B who can be a meaningful player for the next five years or so. If it's a short-term ownership swap, then I'd keep the starter pitcher who has every incentive to put together a career year.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  12. #7
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I've said them before and I'll say them again. 2 words.

    Extend
    Him

    I think the Reds would love to, but Homer seems(perhaps rightfully) intent to find out if his market price is more Anibal Sanchez(5/80) or Zach Greinke (6/147) and there doesn't seem a way the team can get him to commit before then.

    That could be off base, but Walt has talked for two plus offseasons now about trying to get something worked out, and usually he has been able to, if the player has been willing.( Votto/Cueto/Bruce/Phillips)

  13. #8
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    Quote Originally Posted by PepperJack View Post
    I think the Reds would love to, but Homer seems(perhaps rightfully) intent to find out if his market price is more Anibal Sanchez(5/80) or Zach Greinke (6/147) and there doesn't seem a way the team can get him to commit before then.

    That could be off base, but Walt has talked for two plus offseasons now about trying to get something worked out, and usually he has been able to, if the player has been willing.( Votto/Cueto/Bruce/Phillips)

    Fine, then pay him what he wants. If you have to make room, find a place to trade Phillips sometime in the next year. If we aren't going to be active I would hope there is a reason behind it - and that is to lock up our two horses for their careers.

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  15. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    It appears that he likely cannot be extended at a rate the Reds are willing to pay. But you can't trade him for future value only. You basically have to get a decent arm & additional value in return.

    Let's assume he puts up another 200 IP with an ERA in the 3.50 range. If I'm Homer I'm looking at Ricky Nolasco (4/49 at age 30 -- 12.25/yr) as my floor comp and Greinke (6/147, age 30 -- 24.5/yr) as my ceiling. Split that difference and you're looking at something in the ~18M/yr ballpark. And with his age, he's going to want a minimum of 5 years and probably 6. That's $108M over 6 years and I simply don't see the Reds doing that.

    If they do manage to come to terms to an agreement, I envision something like 3 years at 8/14/16 with some significant performance bonuses.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-07-2014 at 01:36 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #10
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Fine, then pay him what he wants. If you have to make room, find a place to trade Phillips sometime in the next year. If we aren't going to be active I would hope there is a reason behind it - and that is to lock up our two horses for their careers.
    And if what he wants is Greinke's contract, you pay him that?

    jvs

  17. #11
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    Quote Originally Posted by PTjvs View Post
    And if what he wants is Greinke's contract, you pay him that?

    jvs
    That depends on what he does in 2014, doesn't it? If he repeats 2013, then no. But what if he goes out and gives you 215 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 50 walks and 200 strikeouts?

  18. #12
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    Some of Homer's thoughts on the issue:

    http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2014/...-trade-rumors/


    Appearing Tuesday on MLB Network Radio on Sirius/XM with hosts Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette, Reds pitcher Homer Bailey was asked whether he’s been paying attention to the off-season trade rumors involving his name.

    Basically, and not at all surprising to me, the answer was no.

    “I actually don’t get around a computer very much,” Bailey replied. “Actually my agent had called and said ‘hey, this stuff is on MLBTradeRumors. My answer was just more or less ‘that’s cool, I’ve got to go workout in a little bit. I’ll talk to you later.’

    “All the trade rumors, let’s be honest. How many times are they actually right, No. 1? And No. 2 … it’s January. Come on. If it were the Trade Deadline or something, you know what? It might be of importance. Realistically right now, it doesn’t matter. All I can do is get prepared for a season. Whatever happens, happens.”

    As the arbitration process gets closer, Bailey was asked if he stays in contact with his agents for negotiation details.

    “Not a whole lot until it really starts getting serious,” Bailey said. “Last year, we had a bunch of guys on our team going through arbitration. It was a kind of let them go at their own pace. Arbitration is one of those things that no matter how long it takes, it will eventually get done. Even at the beginning of the process, your representatives know and so does the team, they have a pretty good idea of where you’re going to be. You might be a little bit off and that’s where negotiations come in. But it’s not like there’s any surprise once the deal gets done.”

  19. #13
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    That depends on what he does in 2014, doesn't it? If he repeats 2013, then no. But what if he goes out and gives you 215 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 50 walks and 200 strikeouts?
    One could argue that 6 year deals to pitchers very infrequently work out.

    Even if Homer put up 3.00/50/200, no, I don't think giving him 6/147 is a good idea.

    jvs

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  21. #14
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    If I'm the Reds, I'm most definitely shopping Bailey. But I also wouldn't trade him unless it really made it sense. Letting him walk and giving him a QO isn't the end of the world.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  23. #15
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Bailey!?

    Quote Originally Posted by PTjvs View Post
    One could argue that 6 year deals to pitchers very infrequently work out.

    Even if Homer put up 3.00/50/200, no, I don't think giving him 6/147 is a good idea.

    jvs
    While I am with you, someone will hand him a 6 year deal around $120M if he goes out and puts up those numbers. It won't be the Reds, but someone will do it.


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