Tanaka and late off-season transactions

[Kc61]

The negotiation period for Tanaka ends on January 24. Presumably he signs at that point or thereabouts.

Once Tanaka signs it will likely lead to the FA signings of Garza, Jimenez, Santana and Arroyo.

So these free agents (some major) will be signing quite late in the off-season.

What's the impact on the Reds?

Any Bailey signing could be influenced by these signings. You'd think that some of these FA signings will be quite rich and could result in Bailey's price tag going up.

If the Reds are considering a Bailey trade then the Tanaka signing could open up the field. A team that loses out on Tanaka could try to trade for Bailey.

Right now the FA market (whatever's left of it) seems at a halt. Trade market too. Looks to me like we're in for one more major round of activity once Tanaka signs.

[Mitri]

The more I think about Homer in relation to the pitching market, the more I'm just not seeing a deal happening. Though I'm sure at this point most GMs value Bailey's skills more than all of the above mentioned save for Tanaka (and even then you could argue that Homer might put up a better year) I doubt many of them will be desperate enough to dish out what Walt should be expecting in return when they could just sign a Garza/Jimenez and hang onto their prospects. And to be honest, as a few have noted in other threads these past few days, if this team wants to be competitive next year they'll need a few elite run-prevention seasons. Homer is our best bet to do that next year.

One team who, strangely enough, seems to be all-in for a frontline starter next year is the Dbags. I'd deal Homer for something like Parra/Gregorius, but doubt they'd give up so many years of control for one year of Bailey and the comp pick.

[PuffyPig]

Though I'm sure at this point most GMs value Bailey's skills more than all of the above mentioned save for Tanaka (and even then you could argue that Homer might put up a better year)......

IMO, if Bailey was in the same situation as Tanaka and was being "posted", GM's would likely see him as less of a gamble and spend even more money on him.

What that means in terms of trade value, Im not sure. He should bring as much as Choo cost us. Probably more, because front line starters are usually overvalued. And Choo's value leaving Cincy is certainly higher than when he came here.

[Kc61]

Of course, the activity resulting from the Tanaka thing could impact the Reds in other ways.

Can't tell the ripple effect of these major pitching signings about to come.

Bailey just seems the most obvious possibility to be impacted among the Reds -- assuming there is any impact.

[corkedbat]

I don't believe Bailey's talks will be influenced much at all because I simply think that he (and his peeps) have already informed the Reds exactly what they want to avoid testing the market and it is a figure substantially beyond what the Reds feel comfortably paying. Again though, there is nothing I would rather see happen than Walt proving me wrong on this.

[PepperJack]

Another thing that may play a roll in this for the Reds is that Bailey and Tanaka share the same agent.

[corkedbat]

I believe Bailey & advisors are probably shooting for and $18-20M average over at least 5-6 years and with a Strong season he may well get it. I can't see the Reds offering Homer more than $15-16M per tops. For one thing, if you offer it to Homer then you set a pretty high floor for the start of Latos talks. If they miss out and Homer walks, I can see them going above the $17M per mark if Latos has a strong 2014 campaign just because I don't think they can afford to just let he and Homer both walk for a couple of middling draft picks.

[757690]

Derek Holland is out for at least half of 2014 with a knee injury. Might make Bailey more attractive to the Rangers.

[Kc61]

Derek Holland is out for at least half of 2014 with a knee injury. Might make Bailey more attractive to the Rangers.

Maybe Texas will trade the Reds Choo straight up for Bailey. Texas has to throw in $110 million.

[757690]

Rosenthal reports Homer doesn't want to leave Cincinnati

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/h...t-garza-011014

“To say that I 'want out of Cincinnati' is not true,” said Bailey, who is from La Grange, Texas. “I have nothing but good things to say about ownership and management, and I hold a great relationship with the coaching staff.

“If I am in the organization's future, my priorities are that things make sense for me on the business end, that we are a team that continues to be a highly competitive team in the league and a team that plays the game the right way.”

“We have made an offer. They have responded,” Jocketty said. “We’ll continue to negotiate into spring training and hopefully get something done by the start of the season.”

Bailey declined comment on the negotiations, and Jocketty said they currently are on “hold.”

[kaldaniels]

Rosenthal reports Homer doesn't want to leave Cincinnati

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/h...t-garza-011014

Promising. But I thought they were out of money.

But please let this end the thought that Homer hates Cincy.

[bigredmechanism]

I believe Bailey & advisors are probably shooting for and $18-20M average over at least 5-6 years and with a Strong season he may well get it. I can't see the Reds offering Homer more than $15-16M per tops. For one thing, if you offer it to Homer then you set a pretty high floor for the start of Latos talks. If they miss out and Homer walks, I can see them going above the $17M per mark if Latos has a strong 2014 campaign just because I don't think they can afford to just let he and Homer both walk for a couple of middling draft picks.

I think Latos and his people are well aware that he is better than Bailey and will command a higher salary.

Neither of these guys will be cheap. I know we all want to keep both of them but it will most likely cost the team 36-40M per year to do that.

Let one of them go if need be, but it'd not worth further hamstringing this team on bad 20+M contracts.

[corkedbat]

Promising. But I thought they were out of money.

But please let this end the thought that Homer hates Cincy.

Never thought Homer "hated" Cincy. I've just felt like he wants to leverage his best shot at a big payday to the hilt (certainly won't blame him for that).

While far from a statement that he's wants to be here and he will make it happen come hell or high water, I do think this is certainly the most positive statement that has come from his camp. Of course, there's always the chance that he realizes he may have to pitch another year in Cincy so why piss of the natives? I still doubt that Homer is back next year, but I'll be giddy if Homer and Walt prove me wrong.

[corkedbat]

I think Latos and his people are well aware that he is better than Bailey and will command a higher salary.

Neither of these guys will be cheap. I know we all want to keep both of them but it will most likely cost the team 36-40M per year to do that.

Let one of them go if need be, but it'd not worth further hamstringing this team on bad 20+M contracts.

I think the Reds could afford to sign two of Latos, Bailey and Cueto to extensions at top-starter money. Ideally it would be Bailey and Latos, allowing them to trade high on Cueto and replace him with Stephenson. I also believe that they can afford another top veteran bat in the lineup.

The key to affording two stud starters and a big bat (in addition to the big media money boost heading their way) is intelligent roster management and churn. If you can sign two of the big three, don't feel you must re-up Leake, Likewise, in the lineup, if Cozart, Frazier and Mes start to get moderately inexpensive in arbitration, find cheaper, younger,pre-arb alternatives. It also means middle of the road guys like BP do not get the big extensions.

They needs to be able to insert at least a coupe of young cheap kids into the roster in the next couple of years (Hamilton and Ervin?). Get younger (and possibly more productive) on the bench (HRod, YRod, Lutz, LeMarre, Barnhart?).

Make the bullpen a Fountain of Youth. Deal Chapman if he doesn't start and the return is right. No more weak-moment Broxton extensions and while I love Lecure once the money starts building its time for someone new. The pen should always have at least two or three arms with less that a couple of years of experience.

By 2015, I would expect Two starters, Votto, Bruce and one other top bat making fairly big bucks. Then having two three arb-guys like Frazier, Cozart and Mes. A couple of cheap young position starters mixed in and a couple of vets mixed in with young guys on the bench,

On the pitching staff? Two top-dollar starters and two or three solid young starters (ie - Stephenson, Cingrani, Holmberg) or maybe a cheaper journeyman vet at the bottom of the rotation. In the pen. Maybe a RH & LH moderately-paid vets with several young power arms to round it out.

With enough youth mixed in they could probably afford pretty decent money for a closer, but I'd resist the temptation and use the cash to upgrade elsewhere.

[fearofpopvol1]

Am I the only one who saw this thread and secretly hoped the Reds signed Tanaka? Especially since it was stickied?

That's very promising words on Bailey. Sounds like they might get that deal done. I feel like I've read that Mat and Dallas like Cincinnati as well. Wonder if they could keep both. I love Cueto but his health last year and changed delivery concern me.

If they sign Latos and Bailey to long term deals, I assume they would not sign Arroyo?

I still worry about the gaping hole known as LF. Also, I wonder if Walt regrets not signing Bruce to a longer extension when he came to them for one? Especially since it sounded like he was going to sign at a discount?