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Thread: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

  1. #16
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    “To say that I 'want out of Cincinnati' is not true,” said Bailey, who is from La Grange, Texas. “I have nothing but good things to say about ownership and management, and I hold a great relationship with the coaching staff.

    “If I am in the organization's future, my priorities are that things make sense for me on the business end, that we are a team that continues to be a highly competitive team in the league and a team that plays the game the right way.”
    It is nitpicky but while he says he doesn't want out, he also doesn't say that he wants to stay. He praises the organization but not the region. When I saw the piece I was hoping for a more passionate desire to stay. Oh well it could just be the way he choose a phrase or the question was asked.

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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I think the Reds could afford to sign two of Latos, Bailey and Cueto to extensions at top-starter money. Ideally it would be Bailey and Latos, allowing them to trade high on Cueto and replace him with Stephenson. I also believe that they can afford another top veteran bat in the lineup.

    The key to affording two stud starters and a big bat (in addition to the big media money boost heading their way) is intelligent roster management and churn. If you can sign two of the big three, don't feel you must re-up Leake, Likewise, in the lineup, if Cozart, Frazier and Mes start to get moderately inexpensive in arbitration, find cheaper, younger,pre-arb alternatives. It also means middle of the road guys like BP do not get the big extensions.

    They needs to be able to insert at least a coupe of young cheap kids into the roster in the next couple of years (Hamilton and Ervin?). Get younger (and possibly more productive) on the bench (HRod, YRod, Lutz, LeMarre, Barnhart?).

    Make the bullpen a Fountain of Youth. Deal Chapman if he doesn't start and the return is right. No more weak-moment Broxton extensions and while I love Lecure once the money starts building its time for someone new. The pen should always have at least two or three arms with less that a couple of years of experience.

    By 2015, I would expect Two starters, Votto, Bruce and one other top bat making fairly big bucks. Then having two three arb-guys like Frazier, Cozart and Mes. A couple of cheap young position starters mixed in and a couple of vets mixed in with young guys on the bench,

    On the pitching staff? Two top-dollar starters and two or three solid young starters (ie - Stephenson, Cingrani, Holmberg) or maybe a cheaper journeyman vet at the bottom of the rotation. In the pen. Maybe a RH & LH moderately-paid vets with several young power arms to round it out.

    With enough youth mixed in they could probably afford pretty decent money for a closer, but I'd resist the temptation and use the cash to upgrade elsewhere.
    We are talking $200 million in contracts for Bailey and Latos. A big bat is additional expense, say $60 to 70 million.

    Add that to Votto and Phillips. First question is whether the Reds could afford a single additional quality veteran player on such a team.

    Second question is whether it is wise to have a salary structure for several years with five big contracts and virtually no salary flexibility. Not sure the team you posit is the most desirable.

    It's hard to argue this because we don't know the Reds expected revenues and expected available funds.

    Of course based on the GMs public statements all these signings sound impossible. But even if he's just understating the finances the question is whether several additional huge contracts would be wise.

    There are other ways to build a team beyond massive contracts if you are active in the player market and make good choices.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-11-2014 at 02:25 PM.

  4. #18
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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    It is nitpicky but while he says he doesn't want out, he also doesn't say that he wants to stay. He praises the organization but not the region. When I saw the piece I was hoping for a more passionate desire to stay. Oh well it could just be the way he choose a phrase or the question was asked.
    Do you want him to bleed his own blood?

    He is not tied or bonded to that city or area.......but it sounds like he would like to stay if the team continues to look competitive and he is compensated fairly.
    He is no different than just about any player that was not born in the area.

    After hearing how it was a foregone conclusion that he never liked being here..... he says that is not true but it's still not good enough? It is good for me and I always thought so many people here always assumed the negative due to some poor early years but I never once heard it from him.

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  6. #19
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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    Do you want him to bleed his own blood?

    He is not tied or bonded to that city or area.......but it sounds like he would like to stay if the team continues to look competitive and he is compensated fairly.
    He is no different than just about any player that was not born in the area.

    After hearing how it was a foregone conclusion that he never liked being here..... he says that is not true but it's still not good enough? It is good for me and I always thought so many people here always assumed the negative due to some poor early years but I never once heard it from him.
    I would just be more optimistic that he will sign if he was talking like Jay Bruce does about being with the Reds.
    http://www.baseballnation.com/2012/1...incinnati-reds
    "[Bruce] made it clear that he wants to be a Red his entire career," Bruce's agent, Matt Sosnick, said. "[Joey] Votto is in his wedding in a couple of weeks and he wants to play with him. He has a lot of friends there. He and his fiancee are very comfortable in Cincinnati. Jay asked me to approach the team and see if something is there. We'll see if the team has any interest."
    It may be that Bruce is just better at PR but I would like the chances of Bailey signing more if we heard he say that he actually wanted to be a Red for life, yada yada yada.

    Edit: Just reread the article and it does sound more hopeful that it did on first glance.

  7. #20
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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Am I the only one who saw this thread and secretly hoped the Reds signed Tanaka? Especially since it was stickied?
    Yeah, I was thrown off too. Why on earth is this stickied?

  8. #21
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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Serafini View Post
    Yeah, I was thrown off too. Why on earth is this stickied?
    I'm guessing it was stickied to keep track of late-winter transactions, the way the other thread kept track of earlier ones.

  9. #22
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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Thread title is because Tanaka signing will likely trigger late off-season transactions. I assume marcshoe is correct as to why it was stickied.

    No intent to say Reds are in on Tanaka. But there should be another flurry of activity in the baseball player market when he signs.

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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    We are talking $200 million in contracts for Bailey and Latos. A big bat is additional expense, say $60 to 70 million.

    Add that to Votto and Phillips. First question is whether the Reds could afford a single additional quality veteran player on such a team.

    Second question is whether it is wise to have a salary structure for several years with five big contracts and virtually no salary flexibility. Not sure the team you posit is the most desirable.

    It's hard to argue this because we don't know the Reds expected revenues and expected available funds.

    Of course based on the GMs public statements all these signings sound impossible. But even if he's just understating the finances the question is whether several additional huge contracts would be wise.

    There are other ways to build a team beyond massive contracts if you are active in the player market and make good choices.
    Reds don't have much payroll commitment after 2015. They could add two $15M a year contracts, keep the team in tact, and still have a payroll around what it is now. They would have holes in LF and in the pen, but the other starting 7 and entire rotation would be set. And those holes might be filled by what they have in the system currently. The key is not handing out anymore long term deals to middle relievers.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #24
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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    We are talking $200 million in contracts for Bailey and Latos. A big bat is additional expense, say $60 to 70 million.

    Add that to Votto and Phillips. First question is whether the Reds could afford a single additional quality veteran player on such a team.

    Second question is whether it is wise to have a salary structure for several years with five big contracts and virtually no salary flexibility. Not sure the team you posit is the most desirable.

    It's hard to argue this because we don't know the Reds expected revenues and expected available funds.

    Of course based on the GMs public statements all these signings sound impossible. But even if he's just understating the finances the question is whether several additional huge contracts would be wise.

    There are other ways to build a team beyond massive contracts if you are active in the player market and make good choices.
    Not per season. Chances are their first couple of seasons are in the $14-$17M range. They may well have to trade one (or both) as the contracts age, but I think they can afford two of them for at least a couple of years as well as Bruce and Votto (and maybe a decently-paid bat as well). All depends on not making mistakes like Phillips, Ludwick or Broxton or over-extending guys lie Leake, Frazier, Cozart, Mes, etc. (unless they truly excel) and mix into the 25-man roster a half-dozen (or more) youngsters with less than three years service time at all times. I'd also advise not going overboard when paying a closer as well.

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  13. #25
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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    Not per season. Chances are their first couple of seasons are in the $14-$17M range. They may well have to trade one (or both) as the contracts age, but I think they can afford two of them for at least a couple of years as well as Bruce and Votto (and maybe a decently-paid bat as well). All depends on not making mistakes like Phillips, Ludwick or Broxton or over-extending guys lie Leake, Frazier, Cozart, Mes, etc. (unless they truly excel) and mix into the 25-man roster a half-dozen (or more) youngsters with less than three years service time at all times. I'd also advise not going overboard when paying a closer as well.
    Still don't think it's a sound way for the Reds to build, unless the team has much more revenue coming up than is suggested by the team's comments.

    A roster with a large number of inexperienced players including starting pitchers, relievers and hitters isn't usually a winning roster IMO.

    I could see the Reds taking on one major long term pitching contract, that's about it. Then they are better off with several $5 to $10 million players covering a bunch of positions.

    But five big contracts for the Reds is inevitably going to cramp its ability to have good options at most positions.

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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Still don't think it's a sound way for the Reds to build, unless the team has much more revenue coming up than is suggested by the team's comments.

    A roster with a large number of inexperienced players including starting pitchers, relievers and hitters isn't usually a winning roster IMO.

    I could see the Reds taking on one major long term pitching contract, that's about it. Then they are better off with several $5 to $10 million players covering a bunch of positions.

    But five big contracts for the Reds is inevitably going to cramp its ability to have good options at most positions.
    For 2015 - have three big bats, three mid-tier guys (like Frazier, Cozart and Mes) and mix in a couple of cheap young bats (Hamilton & Ervin). Be ready to replace one of Frazier, Cozart and Mes each year starting in 2016 with someone younger and cheaper unless they really improve.

    Go with two of the current Big three at the top of the order and mix in Stephenson, Cingrani and Homberg (or another young starter) to round out the rotation. Have at least two or three of HRod, YRod, LeMarre, Winker, Barnhart and Lutz in bench rolls and two or three of guys like Lorenzen, Partch, Conrtreras, Rogers, Moscot, et al. in bullpen rolls.

    Doesn't sound much worse than what they're looking at this season. May actually be better.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 01-11-2014 at 10:00 PM.

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  16. #27
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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    For 2015 - have three big bats, three mid-tier guys (like Frazier, Cozart and Mes) and mix in a couple of cheap young bats (Hamilton & Ervin). Be ready to replace one of Frazier, Cozart and Mes easch year starting in 2016 with someone younger and cheaper unless they really improve.

    Go with two of the current Big three at the top of the order and mix in Stephenson, Cingrani and Homberg (or another young starter) to round out the rotation. Have at least two or three of HRod, YRod, LeMarre, Winker, Barnhart and Lutz in bench rolls and two or three of guys like Lorenzen, Partch, Conrtreras, Rogers, Moscot, et al. in bullpen rolls.

    Doesn't sound much worse than what they're looking at this season. May actually be better.
    If you boil this down, it's five very strong veteran players and a bunch of maybes and kids. Two of your three "mid-tier" players (Cozart and Mes) have never hit .700 OPS.

    We'll just agree to disagree on how to build the club. I'd rather avoid so many long term contracts and spend money on several more solid veterans at various positions. I see that you'd go in a different direction.

    Of course, if Bailey and Latos were to sign more cheaply than expected, then signing them might work out ok. I could see those two at reasonable prices, but most guys don't give discounts.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-11-2014 at 07:47 PM.

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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post

    We'll just agree to disagree on how to build the club. I'd rather avoid so many long term contracts and spend money on several more solid veterans at various positions. I see that you'd go in a different direction.

    Of course, if Bailey and Latos were to sign more cheaply than expected, then signing them might work out ok. I could see those two at reasonable prices, but most guys don't give discounts.
    If you avoid long term contracts, you'll basically trade every decent player you get as they approach UFA.

    I'd like to avoid them to, but I don't think you can have a decent team for long avoiding them.

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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    If you avoid long term contracts, you'll basically trade every decent player you get as they approach UFA.

    I'd like to avoid them to, but I don't think you can have a decent team for long avoiding them.
    Correct, but nobody is suggesting zero long term contracts. And the contracts being discussed are not merely long term, but very expensive.

    The question is how many "max" type contracts the team can afford and still have other good ballplayers.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-11-2014 at 09:07 PM.

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    Re: Tanaka and late off-season transactions

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Correct, but nobody is suggesting zero long term contracts. And the contracts being discussed are not merely long term, but very expensive.

    The question is how many "max" type contracts the team can afford and still have other good ballplayers.
    Another thing to remember KC is the national media contract goes up quite a bit in a couple of years and there's the new local media contract to be negotiated. I believe the Reds will be in the $100-105M range this years and should climb to around $125-130M by 2016 (but probably maintain about the MLB rank).

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