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Thread: Anti-WAR protest

  1. #16
    8.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    If this was a Pete Rose HoF thread, we'd have a bunch of people complaining about seeing another one.

    Agree with M2, though. It's folly to attempt to cram the entire game into one stat. Plenty of others paint a good picture of what's going on when used together.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

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  4. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    If this was a Pete Rose HoF thread, we'd have a bunch of people complaining about seeing another one.

    Agree with M2, though. It's folly to attempt to cram the entire game into one stat. Plenty of others paint a good picture of what's going on when used together.
    I too don't pay much attention to pitcher WAR. I think that there is a lot of good with it, but there are certain guys with certain pitches that can generally beat BABIP or some guys who simply can't keep a "normal" BABIP for whatever reason. Some guys have high or low HR rates beyond just the park factors. Pitcher WAR is better than Won-loss record, and it may give you some idea of what is going on, but give me Innings, ERA+, walks, HR (along with their home park) and strikeouts and go with a gut feeling.

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  6. #18
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Yeah, does anyone say "we need an X WAR player to get us over the top" without any regard to what that player offers?

    Maybe it's just me, but I've enough time on my hands to look at more than one number.
    That's why I always thought it was kind of dumb for the teams who seemed like they were trying to win by stacking up the WAR points, often based on defensive WAR, and it ended up completely busting on them. Most notably the Mariners.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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  8. #19
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    That's why I always thought it was kind of dumb for the teams who seemed like they were trying to win by stacking up the WAR points, often based on defensive WAR, and it ended up completely busting on them. Most notably the Mariners.
    This post really isn't grounded in accuracy.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  10. #20
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    WAR reminds me of these stereos from the 70's



    Tries to jam too much into on thing

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  12. #21
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    My grandma had one of those.

  13. #22
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    WAR reminds me of these stereos from the 70's



    Tries to jam too much into on thing
    That was winshares.

    WAR is next generation technology that enhances the listening experience.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  15. #23
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    WAR reminds me of these stereos from the 70's



    Tries to jam too much into on thing
    I've got a model in the basement with a double cassette (because you've got to have tape transfer), a CD player and a TV tuner (because TVs weren't able to broadcast in stereo back in the day.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  17. #24
    8.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I too don't pay much attention to pitcher WAR. I think that there is a lot of good with it, but there are certain guys with certain pitches that can generally beat BABIP or some guys who simply can't keep a "normal" BABIP for whatever reason. Some guys have high or low HR rates beyond just the park factors. Pitcher WAR is better than Won-loss record, and it may give you some idea of what is going on, but give me Innings, ERA+, walks, HR (along with their home park) and strikeouts and go with a gut feeling.
    Tend to agree with that. Hate the W/L stat for pitchers. Almost meaningless.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  18. #25
    8.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Mom and dad had one of those with a -- get this -- 8 track recorder.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

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  20. #26
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Mom and dad had one of those with a -- get this -- 8 track recorder.
    Mine had an 8-track AND was quadraphonic

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  22. #27
    8.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Mine had an 8-track AND was quadraphonic
    Did it have the little directional needle where you could manually isolate the tracks? That was like something out of Star Wars to an 8-year-old.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  23. #28
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Did it have the little directional needle where you could manually isolate the tracks? That was like something out of Star Wars to an 8-year-old.
    That's the fancy type of technology, after my units time

  24. #29
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Just something I found interesting: the stats of the top 25 pitching seasons, by fWAR, since 1970.

    All the stuff he goes into is all well and good... as long as he applies the same logic to the seasons against which he WAR would make a claim otherwise.

    Code:
    [Season	Name		Team		W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
    1972	Steve Carlton	Phillies	27	10	0	41	41	346.1	8.1	2.3	0.44	.256	81%	1.97	2.01	12.1
    1999	Pedro Martinez	Red Sox		23	4	0	31	29	213.1	13.2	1.6	0.38	.323	78%	2.07	1.39	11.9
    1973	Bert Blyleven	Twins		20	17	0	40	40	325.0	7.1	1.9	0.44	.288	75%	2.52	2.32	11.2
    1997	Roger Clemens	Blue Jays	21	7	0	34	34	264.0	10.0	2.3	0.31	.294	81%	2.05	2.25	10.8
    1970	Bob Gibson	Cardinals	23	7	0	34	34	294.0	8.4	2.7	0.40	.299	72%	3.12	2.29	10.8
    1970	Fergie Jenkins	Cubs		22	16	0	40	39	313.0	7.9	1.7	0.86	.263	70%	3.39	2.78	10.5
    2001	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	21	6	0	35	34	249.2	13.4	2.6	0.68	.315	81%	2.49	2.13	10.4
    1971	Fergie Jenkins	Cubs		24	13	0	39	39	325.0	7.3	1.0	0.80	.285	76%	2.77	2.38	10.3
    2000	Pedro Martinez	Red Sox		18	6	0	29	29	217.0	11.8	1.3	0.71	.236	87%	1.74	2.17	 9.9
    1971	Tom Seaver	Mets		20	10	0	36	35	286.1	9.1	1.9	0.57	.263	86%	1.76	1.93	 9.8
    1988	Roger Clemens	Red Sox		18	12	0	35	35	264.0	9.9	2.1	0.58	.291	74%	2.93	2.17	 9.7
    1999	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	17	9	0	35	35	271.2	12.1	2.3	0.99	.292	82%	2.48	2.76	 9.6
    2000	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	19	7	0	35	35	248.2	12.6	2.8	0.83	.326	77%	2.64	2.53	 9.5
    2004	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	16	14	0	35	35	245.2	10.6	1.6	0.66	.264	70%	2.60	2.30	 9.5
    1970	Tom Seaver	Mets		18	12	0	37	36	290.2	8.8	2.6	0.65	.267	74%	2.82	2.53	 9.3
    1995	Randy Johnson	Mariners	18	2	0	30	30	214.1	12.4	2.7	0.50	.301	77%	2.48	2.08	 9.3
    2002	Curt Schilling	Diamondbacks	23	7	0	36	35	259.1	11.0	1.2	1.01	.297	75%	3.23	2.40	 9.3
    1991	Roger Clemens	Red Sox		18	10	0	35	35	271.1	8.0	2.2	0.50	.272	73%	2.62	2.57	 9.1
    2009	Zack Greinke	Royals		16	8	0	33	33	229.1	9.5	2.0	0.43	.303	79%	2.16	2.33	 9.1
    1998	Kevin Brown	Padres		18	7	0	36	35	257.0	9.0	1.7	0.28	.306	76%	2.38	2.23	 9.0
    1973	Nolan Ryan	Angels		21	16	1	41	39	326.0	10.6	4.5	0.50	.280	77%	2.87	2.49	 9.0
    1987	Roger Clemens	Red Sox		20	9	0	36	36	281.2	8.2	2.7	0.61	.290	77%	2.97	2.91	 9.0
    1978	Phil Niekro	Braves		19	18	1	44	42	334.1	6.7	2.8	0.43	.276	73%	2.88	2.76	 8.9
    1978	Ron Guidry	Yankees		25	3	0	35	35	273.2	8.2	2.4	0.43	.241	82%	1.74	2.19	 8.8
    1982	Steve Carlton	Phillies	23	11	0	38	38	295.2	8.7	2.6	0.52	.294	72%	3.10	2.41	 8.7
    Which is more dominant? 273 innings of a 208 ERA+? 213 IP of a 291 ERA+? How about 276 IP of 229 ERA+?

    Would he rather have Roger Clemens' 13-8 in 2005 (211 IP, 226 ERA+) or Barry Zito's 15-8 in 2012 (184 IP, 85 ERA+)?

    Ultimately, I agree, we don't have to be so reductionist and boil things down to a single number. But if you're going to cite a single number, you can't credibly claim that Wins tells you more about pitcher performance than WAR. It's pretty simple really. Look at a bunch of high WAR seasons. Then look at a bunch of high Win seasons. Which list does a better job at capturing the best pitching seasons?

    Heck, the fact that the author found the need to create a new categorization system for starts to account for other things actually makes the case against wins just fine.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-13-2014 at 08:08 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  26. #30
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    Re: Anti-WAR protest

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Do you all think that the name of WAR should be changed because I find, in my discussions with non-saber people, that Wins Above Replacement is kind of confusing for them. Honestly, I think it should be called Performance Above Replacement. Of course, that would confuse golfers but who cares about them
    I agree with this. I can understand performance in relation to a mean of all players at that position in that aspect of the game. I have trouble then relating that to wins for the player's team. If a team's roster were filled entirely with 0 WAR players, offensively and defensively, should that team finish .500?


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