Kershaw breaks 30 million per year ave barrier

[Chip R]

That's an absurd amount of money.

They get an absurd amount of TV money.

I certainly can't begrudge someone for buying an expensive car or an expensive house because they make a lot of money. But I don't have to compete with them.

[kaldaniels]

*Sigh*

Reds Rotation Opening Day 2016:

Robert Stephenson
Tony Cingrani
Ben Lively
David Holmberg
Daniel Corcino/Sharky Rogers/Jon Moscot

Back of Bullpen:

RH8 Michael Lorenzen
LH8 Ish Guillon
CL Carlos Contreras

Don't fear a 1-2 punch of Bob and Tony. That actually excites me.

Let the rest of the chips fall where they may. I don't see all of the starters walking away.

And if they do, that's 3-4 comp picks.

[cincinnati chili]

If you can promise me he's going to stay healthy, he's worth it (best ERA in first 1,000 innings of his career for any starting pitcher since the deadball era) but you can't promise me he won't get hurt, so he's not worth the risk.

[SporkLover]

I wonder if both the Dodgers and Kershaw have the opportunity to opt out....

Even if the Dodger can't... I still can't complain that this is an awful contract given the market that they can leverage.

[kpresidente]

Don't fear a 1-2 punch of Bob and Tony. That actually excites me.

Let the rest of the chips fall where they may. I don't see all of the starters walking away.

And if they do, that's 3-4 comp picks.

Exactly. Ludwick + Broxton = 1 starter. I have a spreadsheet where I mapped out future salaries including arbitration estimates and I have them at $75M in 2016. That's only 11 players, but that 11 includes 8 starting position players and 1 starting pitcher. Assume a $125M payroll and you have $50M to play with. Basically you can keep two pitchers and still fill out the roster. If you trade Chapman and/or Phillips, you you might be able to squeeze in a third. Plus, the $125M is based on historical salary inflation, but there's a TV deal that could bump that up.

A more realistic future is:

Latos/Bailey/Cueto
Stephenson
Leake
Cingrani
Holmberg/Lively/Travieso

The biggest question is whether the farm can produce a bench and a bullpen on the cheap, because those $2-5M/year role-player contracts add up.

[cumberlandreds]

All I will say is that is a lot of money to pay someone that will only play in about 35 games a year. You just wonder how much higher these salaries can go?

[PuffyPig]

You just wonder how much higher these salaries can go?

I've been wondering that since Wayne Garland signed a then unheard of 10-year $2.3M contract prior to the 1977 season.

[bigredmechanism]

All I will say is that is a lot of money to pay someone that will only play in about 35 games a year. You just wonder how much higher these salaries can go?

In another 15 years I won't be surprised to see someone get $50M/year.

It's roughly 15 years ago when Kevin Brown signed for like $15M/year, which seemed so insane at the time.

[mdccclxix]

LA is paying a premium for that extra bump of production that any superstar provides, but it's not like every pitcher will get even close to this money. A guy like Bailey is no. where. near. Kershaw's level. Nowhere. There is extra money floating around, and LA is the dumbest with it, for sure, but I'm not pessimistic the Reds will land Latos or Bailey. I'm sure it will happen.

[Chip R]

LA is paying a premium for that extra bump of production that any superstar provides, but it's not like every pitcher will get even close to this money. A guy like Bailey is no. where. near. Kershaw's level. Nowhere. There is extra money floating around, and LA is the dumbest with it, for sure, but I'm not pessimistic the Reds will land Latos or Bailey. I'm sure it will happen.

Agreed a guy like Homer is nowhere near Kershaw's level. But he doesn't have to be. His agent can say if Homer's half as good as Kershaw he should get paid at least $15M a year. If he's 3/4 as good as Kershaw Homer's agent can say he's worth over $20M a year and if the Reds aren't going to pay it, someone else sure will.

[mdccclxix]

Agreed a guy like Homer is nowhere near Kershaw's level. But he doesn't have to be. His agent can say if Homer's half as good as Kershaw he should get paid at least $15M a year. If he's 3/4 as good as Kershaw Homer's agent can say he's worth over $20M a year and if the Reds aren't going to pay it, someone else sure will.

True, but there seems to be a barrier that 99.9% of players don't reach and it isn't worth even comparing. Arod's 275 million dollar deal(s) stood for a very long time. I have a feeling this Kershaw deal is much the same. It may pull up the rest of the players a bit, but not much as most players are not the total package like Kershaw.

I think Latos and Bailey both get 16+ per year, no doubt, and one will get it from the Reds. Latos is more likely to get 20+ than Bailey as he's had a way better career so far. As will most deals, the most important years will be 1, 2 and 3 (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018) then I wouldn't expect much from either pitcher because both have thrown a ton of innings. So has Kershaw. We'll see.

[HeatherC1212]

That is a whole lot of money. Wow.

[AmarilloRed]

I think if any pitcher is worth that much money Kershaw is.

[TRF]

Homer's 2013 wasn't half of what Kershaw did.. it was more like 90%.

And if he improves in 2014, he's going to be very, very wealthy.

[klw]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ww.typepad.com
Just noticed Kershaw's #1 and 5 comps are Gary Nolan and Jim Maloney.