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Thread: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

  1. #16
    always ask questions bigredmechanism's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    In other words, I think having a Willie Taveras in the lineup hurts a team more than having a Joey Votto in the lineup helps a team.
    I disagree.

    Having a lineup filled with Willy Taveras and only Willy Taveras would be a bad team, sure, but they would still win something like 55-60 games. (~20-25 games below .500)

    A lineup filled with Joey Vottos would win 120 games. (~40 games above .500)

    This is all based on true science.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    It's a soft article that leaves out way too many things to even tell a story. RMR's response was 10 times more informative and helped tell the story of the 2013 season. I hate the Cardinals.

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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by bigredmechanism View Post
    I disagree.

    Having a lineup filled with Willy Taveras and only Willy Taveras would be a bad team, sure, but they would still win something like 55-60 games. (~20-25 games below .500)

    A lineup filled with Joey Vottos would win 120 games. (~40 games above .500)

    This is all based on true science.
    First, WAR is not true science. There is nothing settled about it, and there is no consensus that it's accurate.

    Second, a team full of replacement level players would win 47 games, according to Fangraphs. That would be 35 games below .500. Which is almost exactly what 120 wins is over .500. If you uses a player like Choo, or Bruce, instead of Votto, my statement is true about a replacement level player hurting a team more than an above average player helping it.

    And my point goes well beyond WAR. It goes to how a bad player sucks ability to win out of a team more than a great player leads a team to victory.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  7. #19
    always ask questions bigredmechanism's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, WAR is not true science. There is nothing settled about it, and there is no consensus that it's accurate.

    Second, a team full of replacement level players would win 47 games, according to Fangraphs. That would be 35 games below .500. Which is almost exactly what 120 wins is over .500. If you uses a player like Choo, or Bruce, instead of Votto, my statement is true about a replacement level player hurting a team more than an above average player helping it.

    And my point goes well beyond WAR. It goes to how a bad player sucks ability to win out of a team more than a great player leads a team to victory.
    I don't know where you got WAR from in my post. I made no mention of it.

    If we wanted to use WAR for this exercise we run into problems. If you take Taveras avg WAR per year, and filled a 25 man roster with it, you'd get 65 wins and 97 losses. If you did the same for Votto you would end up with 168 wins and -6 losses, which would be a pretty impressive feat.
    Last edited by bigredmechanism; 01-18-2014 at 01:31 PM.
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, WAR is not true science. There is nothing settled about it, and there is no consensus that it's accurate.

    Second, a team full of replacement level players would win 47 games, according to Fangraphs. That would be 35 games below .500. Which is almost exactly what 120 wins is over .500. If you uses a player like Choo, or Bruce, instead of Votto, my statement is true about a replacement level player hurting a team more than an above average player helping it.

    And my point goes well beyond WAR. It goes to how a bad player sucks ability to win out of a team more than a great player leads a team to victory.
    I think Bruce doesn't belong in the same class as Choo.

    Among OFs(2008~2013)


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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by bigredmechanism View Post
    I don't know where you got WAR from in my post. I made no mention of it.

    If we wanted to use WAR for this exercise we run into problems. If you take Taveras avg WAR per year, and filled a 25 man roster with it, you'd get 65 wins and 97 losses. If you did the same for Votto you would end up with 168 wins and -6 losses, which would be a pretty impressive feat.
    My apologies. I assumed, and we all know what happens when one assumes...
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    I think Bruce doesn't belong in the same class as Choo.
    Choo was a 5 win player last year, Bruce was a 4 win player.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #23
    always ask questions bigredmechanism's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    My apologies. I assumed, and we all know what happens when one assumes...
    No worries.

    The 'true science' bit was me trying to make a funny because I pulled those numbers out of you know where.
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Choo was a 5 win player last year, Bruce was a 4 win player.
    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, WAR is not true science. There is nothing settled about it, and there is no consensus that it's accurate.

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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The main reason the Cards scored more runs than other teams in the NL was an unsustainable average with RISP.
    They clearly proved that it was sustainable.

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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Right but they also had men on base all the time to accomplish that feat. .

    Define "all the time".

    Their OBA was .005 ahead of the Reds.

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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    They clearly proved that it was sustainable.
    Over a season, yes.

    Name a team in baseball that has ever been able to sustain the number over even 2 seasons?

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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    They clearly proved that it was sustainable.
    Not really.

    Around mid season last year, the Cards BA with RISP was over .400. It ended up at .330. So some serious regression occurred in the second half of the season.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Not really.

    It ended up at .330.
    Which was what....about 60 points higher than the next best team?

  19. #30
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Which was what....about 60 points higher than the next best team?
    Would you like to wager on the Cards' team AVG w/RISP in 2014? I'll even let you set the over/under.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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