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Thread: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

  1. #31
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    There are a million ways to skin a cat but it's this straightforward....be at least league average at every position while being as much above average as possible at as many positions as possible.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #32
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    There are a million ways to skin a cat but it's this straightforward....be at least league average at every position while being as much above average as possible at as many positions as possible.
    That's a much better way of saying what I was trying to say.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  4. #33
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Not really.

    Around mid season last year, the Cards BA with RISP was over .400. It ended up at .330. So some serious regression occurred in the second half of the season.
    Here's a quote from Hardball Talk:

    The highest average since 1974, the first year of reliable RISP stats, by a team with runners in scoring position was .311 by Detroit in 2007. The Cardinals shattered that number by going 447 for 1,355, or .330. They did this in a season when averages across baseball with runners in scoring position were at a low for the past decade.


    The Cards scored 80 to 100 runs more than other teams with similar OPS's, in one case a higher OPS.

    BTW, the Tigers sanwiched that .311 season with .277 and .268. So, it would appear they were only able to sustain it for the one season.

    The Cards BA in 2012 was .271, and they had a .264 BA with RISP. So, their ability to hit with RISP was new to 2013.

    But I forget, they had runners on base all the time last year.

    They had 10% or more baserunners than only one team in the NL, but scored 12% or more runs than every team in the NL. And based on averages, they had 5% more baserunners than the average team in the NL, and 21% more runs.

    So really, yes.

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  6. #34
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    One more reason why I'm not that concerned with the Reds going into 2014. The cards offense is due for regression, the pirates pitching is due for regression, the Reds offense is due for an improvement to the norm for MANY players. I'll take our chances with our pitching and defense against anybody.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    Old school 1983 (01-20-2014), PuffyPig (01-20-2014), Wishbone C (01-20-2014)

  8. #35
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    There are a million ways to skin a cat.....
    A million? That seems like a lot. And way more than this quote I found:

    50 good ways to skin a cat
    a compilation of helpful suggestions.


    1. knife.

    2. shard of glass.

    3. small explosives.

    4. teeth.

    5. the power of prayer.

    6. can opener.

    7. unzip from neck to navel.

    8. set a series of short-term easily attainable goals, resulting in skinned cat. accomplish goals.

    9. peer pressure, "all the cool cats are getting skinned"

    10. whittle it off.

    11. give cat post-hypnotic suggestion to get skinned every time it hears the phrase "is it hot in here?" later, say phrase.

    12. rent instructional cat skinning video, study carefully, and apply what you learn.

    13. tell cat pleasant tale about a young boy who loves fruit. while cat is distracted by story, quietly, gently remove skin.

    14. use your super samurai slice action!

    15. try the classic 'toothpaste tube' method.

    16. centrifugal force.

    17. suddenly and severely frighten cat. try sneaking up and clapping cymbals.

    18. marry cat. divorce cat. take cat to court for half of skin. (repeat for full skin)

    19. allow cat to evolve beyond need for skin.

    20. huff and puff and blow his skin off.

    21. offer your own skin in trade. welch on deal.

    22. vote yes on proposition 98. (the cat skinning law)

    23. procrastinate. wait until it's almost to late. promise to skin cat tomorrow. forget. (this method works for me)

    24. find a way to make cat so angry that it's skin falls off. (this method requires much persistence)

    25. if in a horror movie, dream about cat getting skinned. wake up to discover cat was really skinned!!

    26. try some sort of skinning machine.

    27. change definition of skin to mean "read" and change cat to mean "this sentence"

    28. press cat's eject button.

    29. travel forward in time to sometime after you've already skinned cat. get skin and return to present time. triumph!

    30. remove tab a(skin attachment) from tab b. (get it? tab b... tabby. never mind, this is way over your head)

    31. next time you're cleaning 'accidently' use your powerful new suck-o-lux vacuum to remove cat's internal organs.

    32. ask nicely to 'borrow' skin for just a moment.

    33. dare cat to get skinned. if that fails, double dare it. finally, as last resort, triple dog dare it.

    34. approach cat with scissors, assuring it you will only be doing some minor alterations to it's skin.

    35. run in the opposite direction at the speed of light. (nobody knows why, but it works)

    36. wait until opposite day and then don't skin cat.

    37. write screenplay containing scene where cat gets skinned. get screenplay produced. perform skinning scene.

    38. next time cat removes skin to clean bones, swipe!

    39. invite cat to play strip poker. cheat.

    40. destroy entire universe except for cat's skin.

    41. simply click your heels together three times and say "there's no cat like a skinned cat"

    42. tie one end of string to doorknob, other end to cat's skin. slam door.

    43. wait until cat gets stuck in tree. call fire department to rescue it. tell them "only rescue the skin part"

    44. lie and say you already skinned cat. grow to believe lie.

    45. perhaps a clever skin inspector costume might pull the trick.

    46. accuse cat of murder. collect skin as evidence.

    47. using a magnetic hypersonic resonance decapacitor, deplete invisible bond holding together cat's skin molecules.

    48. flood the cat out of it's skin, in the same way you'd flood a gopher out of a hole.

    49. set phasers to 'skin' and fire when ready!

    50. let someone else do it.

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    757690 (01-20-2014), gilpdawg (01-23-2014), _Sir_Charles_ (01-20-2014)

  10. #36
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    LOL. Thanks for that. I needed a good laugh. Some of those were great. :O)
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  11. #37
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    One more reason why I'm not that concerned with the Reds going into 2014. The cards offense is due for regression, the pirates pitching is due for regression, the Reds offense is due for an improvement to the norm for MANY players. I'll take our chances with our pitching and defense against anybody.
    It will regress in RISP for sure, but I dont think it will see a huge regression. Craig's OPS was about 50 points lower than his career average heading into last season. His power was down in all categories along with Holliday and Beltran. I attribute this loss of power to how cavernous Busch stadium was last season. It was a cooler summer with sickeningly high humidity. The ball did not carry at all. I expect meteorological conditions to return to their norm of extremely hot and extremely humid from june-august and maybe a few more balls will go out.

    Matt Adams is a better hitter than many on this board give him credit for. His minor league OPS was .930, and he was very impressive with the limited starts and pinch hitting appearances this season. 17 hr in a half season of at bats is impressive. He is not just a fat Chris Duncan.

    Not to mention that if Taveras has a nice spring there may be a L/R platoon in CF with Bourjous. In Bourjous's one real season he was much better against LHP. He and taveras could be powerful platoon and they could rotate over to give craig and Holliday days off. The cardinals will also be able to steal bases this season, something they have never been able to do. Wong and Bourjous will be expected to grab between 30 and 40 more stolen bases.

    Where is the reds offense expected to improve much? Cozart is what he is, Phillips is trending down on his career, Frazier may rebound up to league average, but i wouldn't hold my breath because pitchers seemed to find lots of holes in that swing last year. Ludwick will hardly improve LF, if at all. Heisey, and especially Paul filled in pretty admirably last season. The loss of Choo can not be overstated. His production was a huge percentage of the reds offense and right now a .651 AAA ops is what is going to replace him.

    The defensive gap between the two teams has also shrunk this off season. Cards improved their defense at 5 positions. Decreased it a little at SS.

    The reds don't need to be shaking in their boots, but they are a worse team than they were this time last year, and the cardinals are better team than they were this time last year.

  12. #38
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    It will regress in RISP for sure, but I dont think it will see a huge regression.
    .264 in 2012
    .330 in 2013

    ...and you don't think it'll be a huge regression in that category? I think someone's in for a bit of a disappointment.

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    The reds don't need to be shaking in their boots, but they are a worse team than they were this time last year, and the cardinals are better team than they were this time last year.
    If everything breaks the same way for both teams and then you simply look at the team additions...then yeah, your narrative is correct. But without ANY roster changes for either club I'd expect simple normalization would nearly flip the standings. Yes, Craig should have more power...but do you expect the rest of the roster to play like they did? Come on, be realistic and rational...look at their career trends.
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 01-20-2014 at 04:24 PM.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  13. #39
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    Ludwick will hardly improve LF, if at all. Heisey, and especially Paul filled in pretty admirably last season.
    IMO, Paul was a replacement level player last year and will not be missed.

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    Old school 1983 (01-20-2014)

  15. #40
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    .264 in 2012
    .330 in 2013

    ...and you don't think it'll be a huge regression in that category? I think someone's in for a bit of a disappointment.



    If everything breaks the same way for both teams and then you simply look at the team additions...then yeah, your narrative is correct. But without ANY roster changes for either club I'd expect simple normalization would nearly flip the standings. Yes, Craig should have more power...but do you expect the rest of the roster to play like they did? Come on, be realistic and rational...look at their career trends.
    The RISP will absolutely regress. Overall offensive production won't regress very much though.

    The rest of the roster has shown this is how they play. Carpenter probably won't be as good in '14 but he should still be a force. I think he will OPS .840 this year. His MiLB OPS was .858. He is in his prime and is a damn good player.

    Who else on the roster performed over their head, even a little?

    edit: Sorry, Peralta. Even if he does regress he is still much more productive than Kozma.
    Last edited by Salukifan2; 01-20-2014 at 05:35 PM.

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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    The RISP will absolutely regress. Overall offensive production won't regress very much though.
    I'm not sure how that is even possible.

    Teams with the Card's OPS last year scored about 80 runs less than they did.

    They are going to have to hit quite abit better than they did last year if their RISP regresses to a normal level. Looking back over the last few years, teams with the same amount of runs as the Cards had, OPS'ed about 40 points higher.

    I don't think you understand how much the .330 BA with RISP affected the run scoring.

    And they lost Beltran.

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  18. #42
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Would you like to wager on the Cards' team AVG w/RISP in 2014? I'll even let you set the over/under.
    It's only fair that I play.

    First, I'll go with #1 in the National League.

    Now, it's just trying to guess how much above .270 they'll be.

    But, before I do that, I have to mention that it wasn't just about their .330 Avg. Without looking it up again, they had about a .408 OBP and a .457 SLG, for an .865 OPS. So, it wasn't just about them having some singles "luckily" bounce where there weren't gloves. They were patient. They were aggressive on the right pitches. They raked the ball when they made contact. They were simply phenomenal with RISP the entire "regular" season (except for the playoffs, where pitching and defense took over, as it usually does).

    I think they'll have the #1 Avg w/ RISP in the NL.
    They'll have the #1 Obp w/ RISP in the NL.
    They'll have the #1 Slg w/ RISP in the NL.
    They'll have the #1 Ops w/ RISP in the NL.

    And, to finally answer the question....I'll go with a .282 AVG w/ RISP, .348 OBP w/ RISP, .420 SLG w/ RISP, and .768 OPS w/ RISP.

  19. #43
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    It's only fair that I play.

    First, I'll go with #1 in the National League.

    Now, it's just trying to guess how much above .270 they'll be.

    But, before I do that, I have to mention that it wasn't just about their .330 Avg. Without looking it up again, they had about a .408 OBP and a .457 SLG, for an .865 OPS. So, it wasn't just about them having some singles "luckily" bounce where there weren't gloves. They were patient. They were aggressive on the right pitches. They raked the ball when they made contact. They were simply phenomenal with RISP the entire "regular" season (except for the playoffs, where pitching and defense took over, as it usually does).

    I think they'll have the #1 Avg w/ RISP in the NL.
    They'll have the #1 Obp w/ RISP in the NL.
    They'll have the #1 Slg w/ RISP in the NL.
    They'll have the #1 Ops w/ RISP in the NL.

    And, to finally answer the question....I'll go with a .282 AVG w/ RISP, .348 OBP w/ RISP, .420 SLG w/ RISP, and .768 OPS w/ RISP.

    If they get a .768 OPS with RISP (but are better in those situations due to their patience, being aggesive on the right pitches, and raking the ball when they make contact), their offense will take quite dip next year.

    You can't lose 100 points of OPS with RISP and not score quite a bit less.

    BTW, the Reds last year had a .744 OPS with RISP, including a .363 OBA.

  20. #44
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I'm not sure how that is even possible.

    Teams with the Card's OPS last year scored about 80 runs less than they did.

    They are going to have to hit quite abit better than they did last year if their RISP regresses to a normal level. Looking back over the last few years, teams with the same amount of runs as the Cards had, OPS'ed about 40 points higher.

    I don't think you understand how much the .330 BA with RISP affected the run scoring.

    And they lost Beltran.
    You are forgetting that with no runners on last season most cardinals OPSd far below their career averages.

    Bases empty OPS (With freese and beltran gone they are irrelevant)
    Craig- .714
    Molina- .738
    Holliday- .761
    Jay- .607
    Adams- .638

    The law averages will take care of this too.

  21. #45
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    You are forgetting that with no runners on last season most cardinals OPSd far below their career averages.

    Bases empty OPS (With freese and beltran gone they are irrelevant)
    Craig- .714
    Molina- .738
    Holliday- .761
    Jay- .607
    Adams- .638

    The law averages will take care of this too.
    No one is expecting that their gross OPS's will change, just the distribution.

    Their OPS with no runners on will increase, their OPS with RISP will decrease.

    It will mean less runs, quite a bit less runs.


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