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Thread: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

  1. #76
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Woo-hoo! Cardsplaining!

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  4. #77
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    As I have said in other threads, we play this song and dance every year since I've been here. Many people try to give an argument as to why the Cardinals are going to "regress" this season or that season yet they still are successful despite predictions from here. Sure, there will be regression from the insane .330 RISP clip they had in 2013 but they will still have one of the best offenses in the National League none the less. They have had one of the best offenses in baseball the past 3 or so years regardless of where their RISP numbers are. They scored 783 runs last year, 765 runs in 2012 (when their average with RISP was significantly lower), and 762 runs in 2011. One can assume they will still be one of the top scoring offenses in baseball in the 2014 season and their drop in runs scored won't be as drastic as some are predicting here. Besides, their pitching is good enough to where they will win 90-100 games even if there is an 80+ run drop off (which I don't see). Of course, I can see the arguments now. "oh those Cardinals pitchers will regress..... you will see!!".
    So what's the problem? I think collectively this board agrees the Cards are the best team in the division. No news there. However, when looking for hope for the REDS for this coming season, we do like to think St. Louis will have some regression on offensive due to their historically high performance with RISP. What should we as Reds fans not consider that?
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  5. #78
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    The Cardinals are our daddy

  6. #79
    Burn It Jamz's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    The more I think about it, and the more I watch old footage of Hamilton...I think he's going to surprise people. The Votto podcast made me re-evaluate the way I'm looking at this line-up and I would really like to see this:

    1 - Billy Hamilton
    2 - Joey Votto
    3 - Brandon Phillips
    4 - Jay Bruce
    5 - Todd Frazier

    This has potential to actually be a very dangerous meat of the order. I expect all of Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Frazier to put up better numbers this year than they did last year. Bruce is coming into his prime and seems to be improving every year at the plate. Phillips seemed a bit down, and Frazier will have his sophomore slump out of his system (I'm a big Fazier fan). Hamilton is the question mark, but ultimately I have faith in him to OBP at least at .320 which with his skillset is more than enough.

    I really think that Mesoraco will also hit a lot better this year with consistent playing time and maybe a little less pressure to impress (IMO).

    6 - Ryan Ludwick/Chris Heisey
    7 - Devin Mesoraco
    8 - Zack Cozart

    I'm not as optimistic about Ludwick/Heisey and Cozart, but honestly I think that our line-up will be better this year than last year. Get ready for a big year!
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

  7. #80
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Jamz View Post
    The more I think about it, and the more I watch old footage of Hamilton...I think he's going to surprise people. The Votto podcast made me re-evaluate the way I'm looking at this line-up and I would really like to see this:

    1 - Billy Hamilton
    2 - Joey Votto
    3 - Brandon Phillips
    4 - Jay Bruce
    5 - Todd Frazier

    This has potential to actually be a very dangerous meat of the order. I expect all of Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Frazier to put up better numbers this year than they did last year. Bruce is coming into his prime and seems to be improving every year at the plate. Phillips seemed a bit down, and Frazier will have his sophomore slump out of his system (I'm a big Fazier fan). Hamilton is the question mark, but ultimately I have faith in him to OBP at least at .320 which with his skillset is more than enough.

    I really think that Mesoraco will also hit a lot better this year with consistent playing time and maybe a little less pressure to impress (IMO).

    6 - Ryan Ludwick/Chris Heisey
    7 - Devin Mesoraco
    8 - Zack Cozart

    I'm not as optimistic about Ludwick/Heisey and Cozart, but honestly I think that our line-up will be better this year than last year. Get ready for a big year!
    You expect BP, who in the last 2 years has dropped .110 in OPS, to at the age of 34 to get better? I am not buying it and neither are the Reds and the other clubs they tried to deal him to.

  8. #81
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by indyscott View Post
    You expect BP, who in the last 2 years has dropped .110 in OPS, to at the age of 34 to get better? I am not buying it and neither are the Reds and the other clubs they tried to deal him to.
    Expecting him to bounce back toward his career averages from his worst season in a Reds uniform is actually a pretty conservative stance.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  9. #82
    Burn It Jamz's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by indyscott View Post
    You expect BP, who in the last 2 years has dropped .110 in OPS, to at the age of 34 to get better? I am not buying it and neither are the Reds and the other clubs they tried to deal him to.
    I don't know about 'get better'. I think that he will have a better season at the plate this year than last year.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

  10. #83
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Expecting him to bounce back toward his career averages from his worst season in a Reds uniform is actually a pretty conservative stance.
    I done see many guys after their prime years make large strides forward.

  11. #84
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by indyscott View Post
    I done see many guys after their prime years make large strides forward.
    Posting numbers closer to your career averages after one off season isn't taking a stride forward, it's just what generally happens. As I've said before, the sky-is-falling projection of Phillips strikes me as just about as meaningful as the insistence that Bronson Arroyo was done and dusted two years ago.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  13. #85
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    As I have said in other threads, we play this song and dance every year since I've been here. Many people try to give an argument as to why the Cardinals are going to "regress" this season or that season yet they still are successful despite predictions from here. Sure, there will be regression from the insane .330 RISP clip they had in 2013 but they will still have one of the best offenses in the National League none the less. They have had one of the best offenses in baseball the past 3 or so years regardless of where their RISP numbers are. They scored 783 runs last year, 765 runs in 2012 (when their average with RISP was significantly lower), and 762 runs in 2011.
    The Cards scored many runs in 2001 and 2012 becuase they kept a high OPS, .766 and .759.

    Thier OPS in 2010 was .733 when the scored 736 runs. In 2013, their OPS was the exact same .733, but they scored 47 more runs, due essentially to their hitting with RISP.

    So, it's foolish to suggest that the RISP number hasn't affected their offence. They have only maintained a high runs scored when they maintain a high team OPS.

    They have not proven they can maintain a high runs scored with an average RISP unless they also maintain a high OPS.

    It's safe to assume that unless the Cards OPS rises 30 -35 points, their runs scored will drop about 45 runs, unless they continue hitting with RISP well above the league average.

  14. #86
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by indyscott View Post
    I done see many guys after their prime years make large strides forward.
    He won't. But that's not expected of him. Players decline at his age. But if age decline were always a steady year-over-year erosion, someone would've figured it out by now.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  15. #87
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    As I've said before, the sky-is-falling projection of Phillips strikes me as just about as meaningful as the insistence that Bronson Arroyo was done and dusted two years ago.
    Not remotely a fair comparison.

    Bronson had mono. Phillips had a wrist injury. That's about it. He had mono before the season began, so he never had any time that he was healthy. Brandon was healthy up until he injured his wrist.

    Bronson has been a junk-ball pitcher with control for a very long time. Age has a much less effect on a player like that than it does on a batter. Loss of physical ability takes it's toll on all batters with age, unless they use steroids.

    Brandon's OPS will be better than last year's because of his wrist injury, but he won't exceed his OPS from the year before (.750), which was a 50-point drop from the year before that, which was age-related.

  16. #88
    Burn It Jamz's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    So expecting a better season from Brandon Phillips is not out of the realm of sanity?

    I wish Cozart was a little better offensively. He should have spent the off-season training with Votto and learning a better approach to the plate. Even if he could just get his walk rate up to 7%, and be a bit more selective with his pitches he could probably be a 4 to 5 WAR player.

    I mean his O-swing % is just silly. I don't expect him to drop to Votto like levels, but 30% isn't really acceptable.
    Last edited by Jamz; 02-06-2014 at 08:02 AM.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

  17. #89
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Jamz View Post
    So expecting a better season from Brandon Phillips is not out of the realm of sanity?

    I wish Cozart was a little better offensively. He should have spent the off-season training with Votto and learning a better approach to the plate. Even if he could just get his walk rate up to 7%, and be a bit more selective with his pitches he could probably be a 4 to 5 WAR player.

    I mean his O-swing % is just silly. I don't expect him to drop to Votto like levels, but 30% isn't really acceptable.
    I keep talking about this, but I can't say it enough. I'm anxious to see how some of our players react to working with Don Long. His whole philosophy seems to be helping players learn their strengths and to be there on every pitch, recognizing the pitch and being prepared to hit it or lay off it.

    I fully understand the thought that hitting coach's can't make a difference (that leaves the question of they that role exits), but I think we have a number of batters who could gain from a different approach.

    Maybe it's a pipe dream, but I think such a thing as some of our players becoming more disciplined at the plate and doing more damage when they do swing can go a long way towards making us a more productive team. Some talked about Cozart doing better later in the season after making some adjustments. I have no idea how to determine a player's O-swing percentage. Did Cozart's change later in the season?
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  19. #90
    Burn It Jamz's Avatar
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    Re: Team On-Base Percentage and a Balanced Lineup

    Well I can't find o-swing splits, but his LD% took a very noticeable bump in the second half of the season while his FB% dropped. It's hard to say if it's sustainable, but it seemed like he was no longer trying to crush the ball in every at bat and it benefited him (an increase to .282/.315, which would be awesome as full season numbers). His power took a hit, but the tradeoff (.315 vs. .265 OBPs) is more than worth it.

    If Cozart could post in the .315 - .330 range of OBP over a full season he'd be a very good SS. I'm with you in hoping that the batting coach can help him realize that he doesn't need to swing out of his socks or try to rip a homer in every at bat.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

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