2014 Bengals Discussion

[Kingspoint]

I agree with the sentiment, but I disagree with his conclusion.



I'm not sure I buy that team was ready to win big two years ago. This year was an obvious disappointment, but this was the first year that there was any sense of being the superior TEAM headed into the playoff game. That's why I take any stats about his playoff games with a grain of salt. It's not that he's been good, but rather 2 games where he was quarterbacking an underdog team and 1 game where he quarterbacked a favorite to losses don't really tell us much about his abilities going forward.

The problem with narratives built on very small samples like "Playoff ability" is that they never take into account growth of a team or a player or a coach from one year to the next.

Dalton imploded in all three playoff games. As was stated, it's not that he played badly, it's that he was downright horrible all three games.

But, most importantly, where do you get small sample size from? Dalton has failed for three full seasons,....that's 51 games out of 51 games to deliver under pressure. Whenever there's pressure, he folds like a pup tent in a 30 MPH wind. Don't make me pull out the stats. I shouldn't have to. We've all seen it.

Mike Brown has a definitive problem. There's really only one solution, though. Draft a QB in the 2nd Round and wait out the 2014 season without an extension. If Dalton proves himself by showing he can perform under pressure for the first time in his life, then there's a little leverage to work with now that there's a decent QB with a year of watching and learning on the team ready to be given a chance should the price on Dalton be too much. If Dalton shows that his ceiling is likely to be a QB who can win some regular season games if everything around him is just right, similar to Matt Schaub's situation in Houston, but that Dalton can't throw a pass under pressure, then this isn't the guy you want to give $10M/yr to, yet alone the $20M that Dalton's agent will command and the franchise-tag will be for Dalton in 2015. You let him go and get 3rd Round compensation for him in 2016, or tag him once if you feel the 2nd Round QB isn't ready to be handed the reigns.

[Kingspoint]

Peko extended two years.

Yay.

Kind of an indictment against Stills and Thompson, that they haven't improved as much as they would have hoped.

[Wonderful Monds]

I'd be okay with extending Dalton WITHOUT a lot of guaranteed money if I thought that meant they would keep looking for a QB, but I know that would not be the case.

[Mario-Rijo]

Dalton imploded in all three playoff games. As was stated, it's not that he played badly, it's that he was downright horrible all three games.

But, most importantly, where do you get small sample size from? Dalton has failed for three full seasons,....that's 51 games out of 51 games to deliver under pressure. Whenever there's pressure, he folds like a pup tent in a 30 MPH wind. Don't make me pull out the stats. I shouldn't have to. We've all seen it.

Mike Brown has a definitive problem. There's really only one solution, though. Draft a QB in the 2nd Round and wait out the 2014 season without an extension. If Dalton proves himself by showing he can perform under pressure for the first time in his life, then there's a little leverage to work with now that there's a decent QB with a year of watching and learning on the team ready to be given a chance should the price on Dalton be too much. If Dalton shows that his ceiling is likely to be a QB who can win some regular season games if everything around him is just right, similar to Matt Schaub's situation in Houston, but that Dalton can't throw a pass under pressure, then this isn't the guy you want to give $10M/yr to, yet alone the $20M that Dalton's agent will command and the franchise-tag will be for Dalton in 2015. You let him go and get 3rd Round compensation for him in 2016, or tag him once if you feel the 2nd Round QB isn't ready to be handed the reigns.

I do know Dalton has his issues, of that I am 110% certain. And he is not now nor will he ever be Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning. But I could have coached defense against this team the past few seasons and beat them/made them look bad in the process. If you have a cart with 3 wheels and you keep blaming a 3 year old horse for not pulling it through the mud because he isn't a 5 year old Clydesdale then that is your problem not the horse's or anyone else. In other words don't talk to me about the horse AT ALL until you have fixed the cart, heck even a Clydesdale couldn't help that cart.

Coaching aside I think the problem still lies largely with the surrounding talent which themselves are inconsistent. Only Green, Bernard and Eifert showed consistent production when the ball came their way and the latter 2 weren't on the field enough. Gresham and Jones were inconsistent Jones moreso than Gresham but of course he also wasn't a "starter". And Gresham as we know still made some bonehead plays but to his credit made more of his opportunities this go around. Sanu is decent depth but he doesn't deserves anywhere near the amount of snaps he receives, he just isn't explosive enough to keep the defense honest. Too many snaps to players who don't do anything well enough to be "starters" BJGE and Sanu. And I still think their OL play has been extremely suspect (when the defense needs a play they get through far too often) which is why I believe we will finally draft a Center high (Marcus Martin in the 2nd). But when your protection has holes in it and you only have 1 player on the field who is consistent and your coaching is also somewhat suspect how do you expect your QB to be effective?

I believe the defenses this year will genuinely respect our running game and that will allow a non elite but still very good QB to do far better far more often. And if we can take away our black holes on the OL you'll see Dalton do well in crunch time. I just hope our new Defensive Coordinator can maintain what Zimm had going and not put our offense in positions where it's clear they must pass....if all this pans out I think you'll see what I assume, that Dalton is indeed worthy of a non elite but still very good contract.

[Kingspoint]

I don't see anyway Manziel makes it out of the top ten, let alone into the 2nd rd unless some new bombshell comes out about him

Sea Ray, this might have something to do with it....his Pro Day on Thursday will be important for his draft position...

From Rotoworld w/ Rotoworld comments...

NFL Films' Greg Cosell stated on the Ross Tucker Podcast that Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel's ability to drive the football with arm strength is a "concern for a lot of people."

Cosell is tight with a number of NFL coaches and typically has spot-on info. "When you watch Johnny Manziel on film," Cosell said, "when he had to make throws that were at the intermediate or deeper levels -- I'm talking about throws that required a little bit of arm strength -- he had to put his entire body into making those throws. And that was a concern. Because in the NFL you won't get clean pockets, you won't get the same kind of functional space you get in college. And he had to work so hard to throw the football down the field, that I'd be anxious to see how he throws (at his Pro Day). And my guess is they'll structure his Pro Day tomorrow to try to show that he can drive the football. Because that is a concern for a lot of people." We'll have another Manziel post after Thursday's workout.

Source: Ross Tucker Podcast

[Kingspoint]

I'd be okay with extending Dalton WITHOUT a lot of guaranteed money if I thought that meant they would keep looking for a QB, but I know that would not be the case.

Discussion opened up this off-season between Mike Brown and Dalton's agent. I imagine the two sides were very far apart. Can't imagine they got much more done than speaking about expectations, not even getting into parameters.

[Mario-Rijo]

I don't see the Bengals taking an OL in the 1st round. I see either DB or DE.

I can see that but who would you propose that is left in this scenario? Not seeing a fit other than maybe Breeland and if it's between Breeland and Bitonio I just like Bitonio's upside/versatility = value a little better. Jason Verrett would be a strong pick if you believe his small frame can hold up on the outside (not sure you take a nickel corner that high), heck can hold up at all. DE Dee Ford is really more of a 3-4 OLB so not seeing a fit at that position here either. I will throw a wildcard here though, we lost Hawkins and it's been intimated here and there that a return specialist is in the works so how about WR's Beckham or Cooks?

Let me just throw this out there also because I think it bears repeating form time to time....Don't reach for need, take the best player available. Granted not reaching means don't take someone who doesn't fit into the general 5 picks or so area.

[Kingspoint]

I do know Dalton has his issues, of that I am 110% certain. And he is not now nor will he ever be Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning. But I could have coached defense against this team the past few seasons and beat them/made them look bad in the process. If you have a cart with 3 wheels and you keep blaming a 3 year old horse for not pulling it through the mud because he isn't a 5 year old Clydesdale then that is your problem not the horse's or anyone else. In other words don't talk to me about the horse AT ALL until you have fixed the cart, heck even a Clydesdale couldn't help that cart.

Coaching aside I think the problem still lies largely with the surrounding talent which themselves are inconsistent. Only Green, Bernard and Eifert showed consistent production when the ball came their way and the latter 2 weren't on the field enough. Gresham and Jones were inconsistent Jones moreso than Gresham but of course he also wasn't a "starter". And Gresham as we know still made some bonehead plays but to his credit made more of his opportunities this go around. Sanu is decent depth but he doesn't deserves anywhere near the amount of snaps he receives, he just isn't explosive enough to keep the defense honest. Too many snaps to players who don't do anything well enough to be "starters" BJGE and Sanu. And I still think their OL play has been extremely suspect (when the defense needs a play they get through far too often) which is why I believe we will finally draft a Center high (Marcus Martin in the 2nd). But when your protection has holes in it and you only have 1 player on the field who is consistent and your coaching is also somewhat suspect how do you expect your QB to be effective?

I believe the defenses this year will genuinely respect our running game and that will allow a non elite but still very good QB to do far better far more often. And if we can take away our black holes on the OL you'll see Dalton do well in crunch time. I just hope our new Defensive Coordinator can maintain what Zimm had going and not put our offense in positions where it's clear they must pass....if all this pans out I think you'll see what I assume, that Dalton is indeed worthy of a non elite but still very good contract.

There's obviously some philosophy issues. How does a team commit to running games year after year after year where the main back gets 3.2-3.6 yds/carry, representing the bottom-five in the league? We're a power-running team, yet we can't power-block,....until we moved Collins into the Starting lineup, moved Whit over to LG (where we also had our best Guard-pulling plays in over 20 years), and replaced Zeitler with Pollack. What was our response? Cut Cook. Check. Move Pollack to Center. Check. Hope Zeitler improves in 2014 and learns to run-block. Check, as he was drafted that high for a reason (though nobody expected him to go in the First Round, but the Bengals....but, then again, the Bengals have drafted well since Tobin was made Head of Scouting with four full-time scouts below him). But, then, with money up the ying-yang, they let Collins walk at an extremely affordable $6M per season, while giving us the LT we need as Whit is aging and has only two years left on his contract (and Andre Smith has only two left on his).

I'm not saying that the Bengals can't run-block in 2014, but the improvement we're counting on is Pollack over Cook, and I love Pollack, and believe there will be some improvement there in both pass-blocking and run-blocking, but how much, is to be determined. And, we're counting on Zeitler rebounding from his poor sophomore season as a run-blocker. It should happen, but will it? Collins was a proven commodity at Tackle, and now we have to draft a Tackle. We didn't have to had we just paid Collins the money, which was a drop in the bucket of available cap space the Bengals have in 2014 (currently $28M+).

The other philosophy issue is why they thought that six years of Ghiaciuc/Cook was a good thing at Center. Why they believe that you can win a Super Bowl with a Center who is either bad, in the case of Ghiaciuc, or average, in the case of Cook. I don't see Super Bowl winners with a Center that is anything less than Top-5 that particular season.

BTW, while Eifert should have had more plays, Eifert dropped five of his targets, ranking him 5th worst in the NFL. So, Gresham wasn't the only one who screwed up. Agree with Sanu. I'd rather see Sanzenbacher. Ideally, I would have liked for Mike Brown to have signed Hawkins in the first place and not let him get to Cleveland. But, that's gone.

Gresham is the worst blocking Tight End in the NFL. No question in my mind that he's got major issues with intelligence. He definitely makes bone-headed plays that just kills drives. His talent isn't worth the mistakes. He should not only not be starting, but with what he makes, he shouldn't be on the team. He should have been cut. I do know that our Tight Ends Coach is out working out Blocking Tight Ends before the draft, so I see them drafting one specifically for blocking purposes.

BJGE is still under contract. He's going to be on the team. While Marvin Lewis likes to think Gio is going to be another Ray Rice, it's just not going to happen. Gio is not a player you give the ball to 320 times a year. His 220 touches last season was the correct amount, but with more of the touches distributed in space instead of handoffs between the tackles. BJGE for 100 touches on the year is fine...3rd-and-1, 4th-and-1, breathing spells, injuries. But, a true #2 RB is needed who isn't a liability catching the ball (that rules out Blount), who can run between the tackles at better than 3.6 yards per carry. We should have obtained Chris Ivory last season, but once again, cheapness of Mike Brown overruled common sense. Ivory averaged 4.2 per carry behind the absolute worst run-blocking O-line in the entire NFL and with a set of QB's that put 8 in-the-box at all times. The Ivory ship sailed, as did the James Stark ship, which sailed right by this season. Again, philosophy rules...cheapness.

I could go on, and on, and on, and I agree with most of what you say. Just repeating it in different ways.

[Kingspoint]

NFL Films' Greg Cosell stated on the Ross Tucker Podcast that Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel's ability to drive the football with arm strength is a "concern for a lot of people."

Cosell is tight with a number of NFL coaches and typically has spot-on info. "When you watch Johnny Manziel on film," Cosell said, "when he had to make throws that were at the intermediate or deeper levels -- I'm talking about throws that required a little bit of arm strength -- he had to put his entire body into making those throws. And that was a concern. Because in the NFL you won't get clean pockets, you won't get the same kind of functional space you get in college. And he had to work so hard to throw the football down the field, that I'd be anxious to see how he throws (at his Pro Day). And my guess is they'll structure his Pro Day tomorrow to try to show that he can drive the football. Because that is a concern for a lot of people." We'll have another Manziel post after Thursday's workout.

Source: Ross Tucker Podcast

And, that has always been Dalton's problem. Everyone knows that Cook would get pushed into Dalton's feet and that it effected his throws. But, when you look at things league-wide, Cook was decent as a pass-blocker. Most teams' QB's got as much or even less time than Cook gave Dalton when it came to pressure up the middle. Again, we're going to try to fix that problem with Pollack manning Center in the hopes that Dalton will get the room to step into his throws. But, in the NFL, you shouldn't have to have a QB that needs that much time. It's not realistic. Tell that to a QB who has to face the on-coming Geno Atkins.

[Hoosier Red]

Dalton imploded in all three playoff games. As was stated, it's not that he played badly, it's that he was downright horrible all three games.

But, most importantly, where do you get small sample size from? Dalton has failed for three full seasons,....that's 51 games out of 51 games to deliver under pressure. Whenever there's pressure, he folds like a pup tent in a 30 MPH wind. Don't make me pull out the stats. I shouldn't have to. We've all seen it.

I thought I was clear. THe small sample size revolves around three playoff games. More than that it's one playoff game where he was on a clearly superior team. If you feel as though he's been a failure over the course of the regular season in addition to the playoff games, then yes, that's plenty of evidence to support your position.

However the argument presented in the CNNSI article I was referencing was, "Fine in regular season, chokes in playoffs."

[Tony Cloninger]

I thought Thompson played very well when Atkins went down. Still has been nothing but injury prone, even for a football player and just not very impressive.

[Kingspoint]

I thought I was clear. THe small sample size revolves around three playoff games. More than that it's one playoff game where he was on a clearly superior team. If you feel as though he's been a failure over the course of the regular season in addition to the playoff games, then yes, that's plenty of evidence to support your position.

However the argument presented in the CNNSI article I was referencing was, "Fine in regular season, chokes in playoffs."

The article emphasized this...

This is where the disconnect occurs between the Bengals (and their fans who adorn the orange-colored glasses) and the rest of the football-loving country. The Bengals go out of their way to make excuses for Dalton, firmly believing one win will serve as a breakthrough that will propel Dalton from being a solid starter to a very good one.

[Hoosier Red]

The article emphasized this...

This is where the disconnect occurs between the Bengals (and their fans who adorn the orange-colored glasses) and the rest of the football-loving country. The Bengals go out of their way to make excuses for Dalton, firmly believing one win will serve as a breakthrough that will propel Dalton from being a solid starter to a very good one.

That's I guess where I read it differently.
Much of the evidence in the article came from simply the playoff games. Despite the author's argument you highlighted.

That all said, it's neither here nor there. I definitely think the Bengals could do better at QB, but there hasn't been anyone in the past 3 years who they've been in a position to obtain that I really saw as a legitimate replacement..

I would NOT be in favor of an extension, but rather would like to keep my options open in this year's draft and this year and next year's free agent market to see if there's a legitimate replacement to be had.

[Kingspoint]

I thought Thompson played very well when Atkins went down.

I agree. He did play fairly well when Atkins went down, but it couldn't be sustained when asked to play more snaps.

After playing 3/4th's of the Defensive snaps in every game through Week 7, Atkins only played 1/2 of the team's Defensive snaps in Week 8 against the Jets. The very next week, Week 9, Atkins tore his ACL in the first half vs Miami.

Through Week 7, Thompson had been averaging about 11-12 snaps per game, or about 1/6th to 1/7th of the team's Defensive snaps. In those short appearances, Thompson held his own. In his first extended action against the Jets, he played 2/5th's of the team's Defensive snaps (26/67). He had a sack, a QB hurry, two tackles, and an assist. His sack and two tackles all resulted in Offensive failures for the Jets on those plays. He played very well. The next week vs Miami (Halloween) when Atkins tore his ACL, Thompson was asked to play in 3/5th's of the team's Defensive snaps (35/63). You could say he held his own, but nothing inspiring. Run plays got past him, and he had no pressures on the QB. He had two tackles and one missed tackle. The next week against Baltimore, where he practiced full-time with the first team Defense, he played terrific. But, that was also against arguably the worst Offensive Line in the NFL. Still, he played well with 3 QB hurries and 4 Tackles with 3 of those tackles resulting in failed Offensive plays. He played in 5/7th's of the team's snaps (55/76). But, that was it. He held his own against Indy, Pitt and the WC game, but didn't fare well against Cleveland, Minnesota, the first time we played SD, and the second time we played Baltimore. His snaps count varied. When he played well, he got more snaps, such as the games against Pitt and the WC game, but when he didn't do well, his snaps were limited, such as Cleveland, Minnesota and Baltimore.

This downward progression wasn't encouraging. But, it was only his second season. And, unless you're a Defensive Tackle taken in the first ten picks of Round 1, it's generally going to take you at least three seasons to be an effective Defensive Tackle. The strength it takes to play the position isn't something that comes with being 23, 24, or 25 years of age. You generally need to be at least 26 before you have the "man" strength to play the position effectively. Technique, of course, plays a role, but it's more about developing the strength that comes with maturity. There are exceptions, but it's not the norm. Thompson is only 24 years old now, doesn't turn 25 until October 19th. When you look at his body of work last season considering his age, it's very encouraging. I think he's going to be a good one, ready to take over for Peko, not only when Peko's contract is up, but will challenge Peko for the starting gig in 2015, his contract year.

[Kingspoint]

That's I guess where I read it differently.
Much of the evidence in the article came from simply the playoff games. Despite the author's argument you highlighted.

That all said, it's neither here nor there. I definitely think the Bengals could do better at QB, but there hasn't been anyone in the past 3 years who they've been in a position to obtain that I really saw as a legitimate replacement..

I would NOT be in favor of an extension, but rather would like to keep my options open in this year's draft and this year and next year's free agent market to see if there's a legitimate replacement to be had.

I agree with you 100%. I'm hoping that Dalton takes that next step, the hardest for any QB to reach in the NFL, and finds a way to perform under pressure, either in big games, or when he's being hurried by the Defense.

As mentioned by Mario-Rijo, Eifert was under-used last season. Dalton's best throws are accurate, over-the-middle tosses, and they can be very effective 15-yards past the line of scrimmage when the throws are between the hash-marks. It's a throw that can be made even when Cook gives up pressure up the middle. Whitworth at LG made that throw easier to make, but Boling still gave decent pass-protection for that throw. No Offensive Line gave their QB better pass protection last season than the Bengals'. Still, there were way to few plays where Eifert was the #1 target on a seam down the middle. That needs to be changed this season. I'm guessing the entire team is focused on changing that. I don't think they grabbed Eifert so he can be a blocker or run out patterns.