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Thread: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

  1. #61
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    We do disagree on Heisey. He's a low OBP hitter, almost never walks. I would have used his $1.7 million toward a bat, a better OBP man.

    And if the new guy can't play CF, then I would have opted for a defensive CFer rather than Schumaker, who I agree isn't a real CF option.

    Hard for me to see where the OBP is going to come from on this team as constituted.

    Except that some OBP will come from Votto who probably will be walked repeatedly and constantly.
    Well, I guess I see Schumaker as the OBP bat off the bench and super utility guy that really isn't a great defender.

    Heisey is the backup CF that every team needs to have.
    Too bad there's not 27 roster spots, and we could've kept Paul. That would've helped the bench out.

    Hopefully Votto doesn't walk as much next year, and gets more hits <ducks and hides >
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  3. #62
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    We do disagree on Heisey. He's a low OBP hitter, almost never walks. I would have used his $1.7 million toward a bat, a better OBP man.
    The grass is always greener. Let's pretend for a minute that the Reds could sign anybody they wanted, so long as it was fair market value. Who is this guy you would have used Heisey's $1.7MM on?

    Here are the 2014 FAs who signed for less than $5MM/yr and those still unsigned, with their predicted slash stats and rank among that group of 67 players. Heisey is included for context. I'm sure there are a few guys not on the list, but I doubt they'd be near the top of it. The list is sorted by projected OBP.

    Now tell me, who should the Reds be using Heisey's money on? What would they have cost? And once you account for the rest of their game, by how much could we expect them to outproduce Heisey?

    Code:
    Pos	Player			AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG_Rk	OBP_Rk	SLG_Rk	OPS_Rk	Signed
    1B	Kendrys Morales		.276	.337	.454	.791	2	1	2	2	
    3B	Casey McGehee		.249	.332	.408	.740	14	2	11	4	1 yr, $1.1MM with Marlins
    OF	Grady Sizemore		.243	.329	.412	.741	20	3	7	3	
    OF	Austin Kearns		.228	.329	.344	.673	40	3	39	20	
    DH	Travis Hafner		.225	.323	.383	.706	44	5	15	11	
    2B	Skip Schumaker		.256	.323	.330	.653	6	5	44	29	2 yr, $5.0 MM with Reds
    OF 	Nelson Cruz		.257	.322	.471	.793	5	7	1	1	
    OF	Juan Pierre		.278	.322	.335	.657	1	7	42	27	
    1B	Carlos Pena		.205	.321	.350	.671	62	9	29	21	
    SS	Rafael Furcal		.252	.321	.340	.661	12	9	41	24	1 yr, $3.5MM with Marlins
    CA	Michael McKenry		.249	.319	.418	.737	14	11	5	6	1 yr, $750K with Rockies (Minors)
    3B	Eric Chavez		.254	.317	.411	.728	11	12	9	8	1 yr, $3.5MM with D'Backs
    OF	Jordany Valdespin	.239	.314	.369	.683	23	13	21	18	
    IF	Michael Young		.256	.313	.349	.662	6	14	31	23	
    SS	Omar Quintanilla	.237	.313	.325	.638	26	14	47	39	
    UT	Kelly Johnson		.236	.313	.412	.725	27	14	7	9	1 yr, $3.0MM with Yankees
    SS	Nick Punto		.229	.313	.294	.607	38	14	61	50	1 yr, $3.0MM with A's
    1B	Paul Konerko		.239	.312	.349	.661	23	18	31	24	1 yr, $2.5MM with White Sox
    1B	Jeff Baker		.250	.311	.420	.731	13	19	4	7	
    2B	Willie Bloomquist	.268	.309	.327	.636	3	20	46	40	2 yr, $5.8 MM with Mariners
    OF	Jason Bay		.222	.308	.378	.686	49	21	19	16	
    OF	Sam Fuld		.235	.308	.319	.627	28	21	50	43	
    1B	Mark Reynolds		.221	.308	.430	.738	50	21	3	5	1 yr, $2.0MM with Brewers (Minors)
    DH	Delmon Young		.260	.308	.415	.723	4	21	6	10	1 yr, $1.0MM with Orioles
    SS	Stephen Drew		.228	.307	.388	.695	40	25	14	14	
    3B	Justin Turner		.255	.307	.364	.671	9	25	24	21	
    IF	Chris Getz		.256	.307	.315	.622	6	25	52	46	1 yr, $? with Blue Jays (Minors)
    2B	Ramon Santiago		.240	.306	.305	.611	22	28	58	48	
    1B	Casey Kotchman		.247	.306	.348	.654	16	28	35	28	
    DH	Jason Giambi		.189	.306	.335	.641	67	28	42	37	1 yr, $? with Indians (Minors)
    OF	Andres Torres		.232	.305	.321	.626	31	31	49	45	
    DH	Luke Scott		.228	.304	.380	.684	40	32	17	17	
    OF	Chris Coghlan		.234	.303	.356	.659	29	33	26	26	1 yr, $? with Cubs (Minors)
    CA	Geovanny Soto		.223	.302	.396	.698	47	34	13	13	1 yr, $3.05 MM with Rangers
    3B	Placido Polanco		.246	.301	.297	.598	18	35	60	55	
    2B	Brian Roberts		.232	.298	.345	.643	31	36	37	36	1 yr, $2.0MM with Yankees
    CA	Kurt Suzuki		.242	.297	.353	.650	21	37	27	31	1 yr, $2.75MM with A's
    IF	Jamey Carroll		.230	.297	.277	.574	37	37	65	60	1 yr, $? with Nationals (Minors)
    CA	Ramon Hernandez		.232	.296	.349	.645	31	39	31	35	
    OF	Chris Heisey		.245	.296	.409	.705	19	39	10	12	
    3B	Chris Nelson		.247	.295	.380	.675	16	41	17	19	
    OF	Raul Ibanez		.215	.292	.400	.692	55	42	12	15	1 yr, $2.75MM with Angels
    3B	Wilson Betemit		.231	.290	.342	.632	36	43	40	42	
    CA	Kelly Shoppach		.202	.290	.346	.636	63	43	36	41	
    CA	Brayan Pena		.255	.290	.359	.649	9	43	25	32	2 yr, $2.28MM with Reds
    CA	Yorvit Torrealba	.234	.289	.312	.601	29	46	56	53	
    CA	John Buck		.209	.288	.351	.639	59	47	28	38	1 yr, $1MM with Mariners
    2B	Elliot Johnson		.227	.285	.318	.603	43	48	51	52	
    2B	Jayson Nix		.213	.285	.315	.600	56	48	52	54	
    OF	Laynce Nix		.223	.284	.367	.651	47	50	22	30	
    2B	Alexi Casilla		.239	.282	.322	.604	23	51	48	51	
    OF	Rick Ankiel		.213	.279	.367	.646	56	52	22	34	
    CA	Wil Nieves		.232	.273	.301	.574	31	53	59	60	1 yr, $1.25 MM with Phillies
    SS	Brenden Ryan		.216	.272	.263	.535	53	54	67	65	2 yr, $5.0MM with Yankees
    CA	Jose Molina		.209	.271	.290	.561	59	55	62	63	2 yr, $4.5MM with Rays
    IF	Brandon Inge		.198	.269	.313	.582	66	56	54	58	
    SS	Cesar Izturis		.224	.269	.282	.551	45	56	63	64	1 yr, $? with Astros (Minors)
    IF	Paul Janish		.202	.268	.267	.535	63	58	66	65	
    SS	Alex Gonzalez		.229	.267	.350	.617	38	59	29	47	
    CA	Humberto Quintero	.224	.266	.313	.579	45	60	54	59	
    OF	Jeff Francouer		.220	.265	.329	.594	51	61	45	56	
    IF	Yunieski Bentancourt	.232	.265	.383	.648	31	61	15	33	
    SS	Clint Barmes		.219	.263	.308	.571	52	63	57	62	
    OF	Franklin Gutierrez	.210	.259	.349	.608	58	64	31	49	1 yr, $1.0MM with Mariners
    SS	John McDonald		.199	.254	.279	.533	65	65	64	67	
    CA	JP Arencibia		.216	.251	.376	.627	53	66	20	43	1 yr, $1.8MM with Rangers
    CA	Miguel Olivo		.208	.249	.345	.594	61	67	37	57
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  5. #63
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    I was previously asked for some specific ideas on what the Reds should have done. I gave them as best I could. I'm not playing this game again.

    Nor were the Reds limited to free agent signings. Plenty of players were traded this off-season.

    My views are absolutely clear.

    If you think that a sit still position was the only available avenue, we just disagree.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-19-2014 at 08:20 PM.

  6. #64
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I was previously asked for some specific ideas on what the Reds should have done. I gave them as best I could. I'm not playing this game again.

    Nor were the Reds limited to free agent signings. Plenty of players were traded this off-season.

    My views are absolutely clear.

    It's easy to sit back and shoot down the idea of any improvement. We'll see how the Reds OBP turns out.
    It's even easier to play armchair GM. I play it as much as anybody, but suggesting we can make better use of $1.7MM than Chris Heisey is pushing it.

    Sure, I'd take De Aza too. I'd love a guy who could play CF every day and get on base. But every team in baseball wants that. They don't come cheap. It's not Heisey's $1.7MM that's preventing the Reds from acquiring him; it's the cost of players you'd have to give up -- plus the extra $2-3MM in salary.

    I feel you. Losing Choo's OBP and replacing it with a healthy Ludwick and Billy Hamilton is not an inspiring plan. I just think we make it sound a lot easier to go out and get those improvements than it actually is, especially considering unknown limitations placed on Walt from above and the interest or disinterest of FAs to come to Cincinnati and other teams to trade us their good players at a reasonable cost. For all we know, Walt talked to the White Sox about De Aza and they told him the conversation starts with Robert Stephenson or else it doesn't at all.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  8. #65
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Just to clarify something mentioned earlier, Reds starters averaged 6.2 innings per game. While this led the NL (and was 2nd to Detroit in MLB) it still leaves 2.8 innings per nine-inning-game (not to mention extras) for the Bullpen.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...pitching.shtml

  9. #66
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    It's even easier to play armchair GM. I play it as much as anybody, but suggesting we can make better use of $1.7MM than Chris Heisey is pushing it.

    Sure, I'd take De Aza too. I'd love a guy who could play CF every day and get on base. But every team in baseball wants that. They don't come cheap. It's not Heisey's $1.7MM that's preventing the Reds from acquiring him; it's the cost of players you'd have to give up -- plus the extra $2-3MM in salary.

    I feel you. Losing Choo's OBP and replacing it with a healthy Ludwick and Billy Hamilton is not an inspiring plan. I just think we make it sound a lot easier to go out and get those improvements than it actually is, especially considering unknown limitations placed on Walt from above and the interest or disinterest of FAs to come to Cincinnati and other teams to trade us their good players at a reasonable cost. For all we know, Walt talked to the White Sox about De Aza and they told him the conversation starts with Robert Stephenson or else it doesn't at all.
    Heisey is a low OBP player on a low OBP team. I would have rather seen the Reds use that $1.7 to increase the on base ability post-Choo. I never said that $1.7 million ITSELF would bring about that result, but the money could have been directed at the team's particular problem.

    I'm sure Walt had a tough job and I'm sure he tried. I don't know what conversations he had. But for 13 months, including every deadline, the team has basically stood pat. I just don't think you usually improve that way. And I just don't buy that it was the only way to go.

    Nor do I know why this result has obtained. It may not be the GM. Maybe ownership or some other factor prevented a deal. This isn't about any individual, just the result to date.

    The thread is about Homer Bailey, it's been sidetracked too long, hopefully someone will get it back on track.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-19-2014 at 08:44 PM.

  10. #67
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Homer Bailey is a good pitcher.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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  12. #68
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    So you suggest, and it could be right, that the Reds just decided that offense was such a low priority item that they would choose to allocate every single dime away from offensive improvement.

    If so, they weren't watching last year.

    As for your last point, the outfield addition I suggest should have no impact on signing Bailey. One is a hundred million dollar item. The other is a about a four or five million dollar item.

    I really think I've made my position very clear. I'm not upset that they chose to avoid big expenditures on offense. I am satisfied for them to allocate their big money to pitching. I am however unhappy that they chose to sit entirely still with their offense and failed to improve it with lower cost moves.
    I just think a statement like that is blatantly unfair.

    Schumaker and Pena are both upgrades offensively. Marginal, but I don't see the front office having made any improvements to the pitching staff this offseason.

    If you aren't happy with acquistions of the Schumaker/Pena ilk, I just have to wonder what kind of offensive acquisition would make you happy? Either Mes will succeed and get a ton of AB's this year, or Pena will be an upgrade over Hanny offensively. That is an underrated move thus far, Hanigan's defense aside.

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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I just think a statement like that is blatantly unfair.

    Schumaker and Pena are both upgrades offensively. Marginal, but I don't see the front office having made any improvements to the pitching staff this offseason.

    If you aren't happy with acquistions of the Schumaker/Pena ilk, I just have to wonder what kind of offensive acquisition would make you happy? Either Mes will succeed and get a ton of AB's this year, or Pena will be an upgrade over Hanny offensively. That is an underrated move thus far, Hanigan's defense aside.
    Strange. You're the one who said the Reds were trying to "allocate resources elsewhere." Meaning away from offense. So I merely gave your statement some credit.

    And now you give me a rough time. Essentially, for agreeing with your post.

    And if Schumaker is an offensive upgrade, please tell me whose spot is being upgraded. Certainly not Paul who was a better hitter last couple of years.

    Really, enough already. On to another discussion.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-19-2014 at 11:03 PM.

  15. #70
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Homer Bailey is a really good pitcher.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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  17. #71
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Strange. You're the one who said the Reds were trying to "allocate resources elsewhere." Meaning away from offense. So I merely gave your statement some credit.

    And now you give me a rough time. Essentially, for agreeing with your post.

    And if Schumaker is an offensive upgrade, please tell me whose spot is being upgraded. Certainly not Paul who was a better hitter last couple of years.

    Really, enough already. On to another discussion.
    I do believe they plan on allocating more of their "haven't spent it yet" money on pitching. That is a world apart from your claim that they have done nothing to improve the offense.

    And I get it, it has been underwhelming. No argument. But I respectfully think you are being a bit over the top with things.

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  19. #72
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I do believe they plan on allocating more of their "haven't spent it yet" money on pitching. That is a world apart from your claim that they have done nothing to improve the offense.

    And I get it, it has been underwhelming. No argument. But I respectfully think you are being a bit over the top with things.
    You might re-read what I actually said, not only the fragment you put in bold letters. But in any event, you really don't disagree with me in substance. I hope it all works out well for the Reds.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-20-2014 at 12:56 AM.

  20. #73
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I just think a statement like that is blatantly unfair.

    Schumaker and Pena are both upgrades offensively. Marginal, but I don't see the front office having made any improvements to the pitching staff this offseason.

    If you aren't happy with acquistions of the Schumaker/Pena ilk, I just have to wonder what kind of offensive acquisition would make you happy? Either Mes will succeed and get a ton of AB's this year, or Pena will be an upgrade over Hanny offensively. That is an underrated move thus far, Hanigan's defense aside.
    While I may not agree with all of KC's positions, I gotta back him up here. Schumaker and Pena are decent but minor upgrade if they add a bat or to to appreciably improve the offense. Taken by themselves - without such additions - they are insignificant enough to be meaningless. Even Holmberg, whose acquisition I like quite a bit does little to improve the outlook of this team without addressing the offensive shortcomings.

    If he is healthy and able to regain a decent amount of his former ability then Sizemore could be a fairly healthy boost in a platoon with Ludwick and/or as a LH bat off the bench. I'm not hanging my hat on him though until I see how he fares in Spring Training.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 01-20-2014 at 12:28 AM.

  21. #74
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    You might re-read what I actually said, not only the fragment you put in bold letters. But in any event, you really don't disagree with me in substance. I hope it all works out well for the Reds.
    You are correct. I'm not far off from you in the fact that I have my fingers crossed about the offense this year. So let's advance from there.

    Now to the "disagreement".

    If I'm correct, you were wishing for 2-3 bats, who in your words, know how to "hit and walk". You mention the 5 Million dollar range. Rick, in a way more classful than mine, kindly presented a chart of the options available in the 5 Million or Less Bargain Bin. I don't see a whole lot of hitting and walking going on in that table.

    When I ask for specifics, it is simply trying to find (even in retrospect) a path Walt should have taken this past offseason to upgrade the offense. And if there was a path you see, it would need to be assessed to see it would be feasible and if it would be good for the Reds organization in the short and long term.

    My simple mind, having a ballpark idea of payroll constraints and wanting to sign some of our starting pitchers to extensions, isn't seeing a lot that could have been done.

    I come in peace kc61, my initial reply to your recent posts of the past week was of the "keep your chin" up variety.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=377

    From there I've had my eye on your posts and have admittedly tried to pick your brain to see your viewpoint...I truly hate to see a fellow fan so bummed out heading into a contending season.

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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Homer Bailey is a really good pitcher.
    You know, this was a nice friendly thread until you started tossing these outrageous statements into the fray.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

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