Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

[klw]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/cin/...&vkey=news_cin

"In Bailey's case, we were working on a multi-year [deal]. The agent [Casey Close] has [Clayton] Kersaw and he has [Masahiro] Tanaka also, so he's been tied up with that. We just didn't anticipate getting it done, but we exchanged numbers in the event and we will continue to negotiate and hopefully get something done before the hearing date."

Multiple times this offseason, Jocketty had characterized the likelihood of signing Bailey long term as difficult. But he seemed less worried on Friday.

"I am optimistic," Jocketty said. "I just think it depends on where they feel the market settles in on free-agent pitchers. Hopefully, we're not too far with our estimate and with their estimate about the market going forward. What it will be based on is what market for a guy like Bailey will be in the future."

[corkedbat]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/cin/...&vkey=news_cin

No way Bailey re-ups. C'mon Walt please show me up! I'd love it!

If they do manage to sign Homer and then Latos, I could see Cueto and/or Leake dealt by next offseason - especially if Stephenson comes on strong.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Reds Discussing Long-Term Deal With Homer Bailey

By Jeff Todd [January 17 at 8:59pm CST]

Discussing the team's inability to reach agreement with pitcher Homer Bailey before today's deadline to submit arbitration figures, Reds GM Walt Jocketty indicated that the sides were discussing a long-term extension, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. He further indicated that the club was not concerned with the situations of either of its two prominent remaining arbitration cases, Bailey and closer Aroldis Chapman.

Though the sides have reportedly had previous discussions on a significant extension, Jocketty raised expectations that something would get worked out. As the GM explained:

"In Bailey's case, we were working on a multi-year [deal]. The agent [Casey Close] has [Clayton] Kersaw and he has [Masahiro] Tanaka also, so he's been tied up with that. We just didn't anticipate getting it done, but we exchanged numbers in the event and we will continue to negotiate and hopefully get something done before the hearing date."

Jocketty further indicated that he is "optimistic" about reaching a long-term deal. Discussing the terms of the contract, he said:

"I just think it depends on where they feel the market settles in on free-agent pitchers. Hopefully, we're not too far with our estimate and with their estimate about the market going forward. What it will be based on is what market for a guy like Bailey will be in the future."

[757690]

I'm guessing this is where the Choo money is going. Going all in with pitching and defense.

[corkedbat]

Just a WAG, but if Homer is resigned, I think it will effect the future of at least two of Cueto, Leake and Chapman (either this year or next). If Bronson stays out there long enough, they might work something creative and possibly deal Cueto for a bat. Real longshot though.

[bellhead]

I'm really thinking Baily is going to a 7 year deal for $110 to 140 million, with an out at the 5 year mark at which time he will be 32. More likely around $125 million. By giving him an out at 32 he'll be able to sign another 5 to 7 year deal at that point for around the same money, guaranteeing he'll make over 200 million in his career.

[corkedbat]

I'm really thinking Baily is going to a 7 year deal for $110 to 140 million, with an out at the 5 year mark at which time he will be 32. More likely around $125 million. By giving him an out at 32 he'll be able to sign another 5 to 7 year deal at that point for around the same money, guaranteeing he'll make over 200 million in his career.

Considered that also

[Kc61]

Wonder if Walt is feeling some pressure to sign Bailey. The fans are not pleased with the inactivity and at some point, as GM, he has to do something to attract interest. The repeated quotes saying that players are beyond budget can't be helping fan interest.

I see Bailey having all the leverage in this situation. Still it comes down to his agent's estimate of future earnings and the Reds' ability to match or exceed that number.

Reds' problem is that they could get Bailey but pay so much that they are unable to sign others for a few years. Not a good result IMO.

It should be interesting to see if the Reds blink, how much they really do have to spend, and if Homer doesn't sign whether the Reds suddenly go into trade Homer mode.

[corkedbat]

Could be nothing more than Walt giving the fans the impression that they went down swinging, but for now its something to wake up for.

[757690]

The only real risk for the Reds in signing Bailey long term is health. He's a proven MLB starter. If healthy, he'll earn his pay and then some. And the way salaries are rising on a weekly basis, in a few years, Bailey with three more years at $15M a year could be a great trading chip to have. But he has to stay healthy.

[corkedbat]

The only real risk for the Reds in signing Bailey long term is health. He's a proven MLB starter. If healthy, he'll earn his pay and then some. And the way salaries are rising on a weekly basis, in a few years, Bailey with three more years at $15M a year could be a great trading chip to have. But he has to stay healthy.

It's always risk signing anyone for more than a year or two. It may even be prudent to avoid anything3 years or over, but if you're gonna take the risk - the it on elite run-producing bats and a TOR starter or two in their prime. If Homer and Latos would sign, I wouldn't extend Cueto (age/health) or Leake (too middling for the risk). If they can lock up the top two I'd deal both or let them walk for the picks and rely on Cingrani, Stephenson, Holmberg, Corcino, Lively, Moscot, Rogers and a cast of thousands to fill out the rest of the rotation.

[RedsManRick]

When Tanaka signs for 6/120 I hope Walt just comes out and says, "Nevermind, Casey Close was right".

[bellhead]

The only real risk for the Reds in signing Bailey long term is health. He's a proven MLB starter. If healthy, he'll earn his pay and then some. And the way salaries are rising on a weekly basis, in a few years, Bailey with three more years at $15M a year could be a great trading chip to have. But he has to stay healthy.

That's why he'll get a 7 year deal around $18 million to $22 million a year... with an out at 5 years instead of a 12 year deal...

[Norm Chortleton]

Seven years is insane for a pitcher. Doubly so for a small-market team.

[fearofpopvol1]

So if Bailey is signed to a LTD, does that mean a LTD for Latos is out?