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Thread: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

  1. #136
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    We're now in the arbitration hearing period. I can't find anywhere on the net the dates for these hearings. I don't know when Homer's hearing date is.
    All I've been able to find is they can be anywhere between Feb. 1-21. I'd love to know when Bailey's is scheduled.

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  3. #137
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Fair enough. I certainly don't know the truth either.

    I do know that contract isn't going to improve with age (because it doesn't seem reasonable to expect Brandon to improve with age either - the money goes up as his production drops - it's why these kinds of contracts are hard to wrap ones mind around). And that's a problem for this team under its current self-imposed budget.
    The Cardinals front loaded the contract to their PED SS Peralta. It would be nice to see stuff like that across the board going forward. How does it make sense to pay more when you know there will be less production at the end. Like look at the Broxton deal. He's making 9M next season. That is insanity.
    They don't think it be like it is but it do.

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  5. #138
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Except that apparently is not remotely true, since the Reds by all reports tried to do just that this off-season and couldn't. And that contract won't get better as Phillips gets older. It's a crap contract, especially for a team with apparently limited resources like the Reds are claiming to be.
    Define "all reports." Many reports said they weren't trying to trade him.

    And to the extent 'some' reports had the Reds trying to trade him, we don't know if it was financially motivated.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    dubc47834 (02-08-2014)

  7. #139
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Honcho View Post
    The Cardinals front loaded the contract to their PED SS Peralta. It would be nice to see stuff like that across the board going forward. How does it make sense to pay more when you know there will be less production at the end. Like look at the Broxton deal. He's making 9M next season. That is insanity.
    Just basic time value of money. Always makes sense to delay payment for as long as possible.

  8. #140
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Who cares what the motivation was if the Reds were trying to deal Phillips, financial or otherwise. The bothersome thing is if they were trying to deal him and couldn't because of contract.

  9. #141
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Who cares what the motivation was if the Reds were trying to deal Phillips, financial or otherwise. The bothersome thing is if they were trying to deal him and couldn't because of contract.
    BP had a sub-par year. So now his stock is low. If he has a good season in 2014 his contract will be seen as a bargain.

    These teams are just as fickle as the fans. A player is as good as his last at bat.

  10. #142
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    BP had a sub-par year. So now his stock is low. If he has a good season in 2014 his contract will be seen as a bargain.

    These teams are just as fickle as the fans. A player is as good as his last at bat.
    He really just needs to have a decent April, May, June, July and there will be a number of team willing to deal good prospect for BP and his contract. Even now, the idea that Walt was trying and unable to unload Phillips for nothing much more than a bag of balls is silly. If Brandon had been a free agent this year he would be wearing pinstripes and being paid around what the Reds are paying him even coming off a sub-par year.

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  12. #143
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Who cares what the motivation was if the Reds were trying to deal Phillips, financial or otherwise. The bothersome thing is if they were trying to deal him and couldn't because of contract.
    I think the motivation is very important. If the Reds had other reasons they wanted to trade him, isn't it possible some of those other reasons were why some teams backed off?

    The Yankees have never been scared of paying money to aging players. You can't tell me they were simply frightened by Phillips' four remaining seasons. Maybe it was a concern but the Yankees are never one to not sign someone simply due to money.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    dubc47834 (02-08-2014)

  14. #144
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Fangraphs suggests 4/70 or 5/90 for Bailey.

    I might try to split the difference at 5/80 and, given who his agent is, maybe throw in an opt-out clause after three years.

  15. #145
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by LegallyMinded View Post
    Fangraphs suggests 4/70 or 5/90 for Bailey.

    I might try to split the difference at 5/80 and, given who his agent is, maybe throw in an opt-out clause after three years.
    If they could sign Homer for 5/80 (or any total under $100M) the extension would have already been completed. Problem most liklely stems from Homer and his representation likely seeing a starting point some where north of 5/100. I think they're pretty confident that someone next off season will give him a nine-figure deal at 5-7 years.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 02-03-2014 at 07:47 PM.

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    5TimeWSChamps (02-08-2014)

  17. #146
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    If they could sign Homer for 5/80 (or any total under $100M) the extension would have already been completed. Problem most liklely stems from Homer and his representation likely seeing a starting point some where north of 5/100. I think they're pretty confident that someone next off season will give him a nine-figure deal at 5-7 years.
    Agreed. I think Homer's side is coming to the table with something like 6/105 and Walt is in the 5/80 range. If the Reds keep Homer, it won't be at a discount.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  18. #147
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    All I've been able to find is they can be anywhere between Feb. 1-21. I'd love to know when Bailey's is scheduled.
    Feb 20
    http://www.mlb.com/news/article/cle/...&vkey=news_cle

    At the moment, the Indians and Masterson's camp are concentrating on a one-year deal, which may or may not require an arbitration hearing on Feb. 20. You can bet that the sides are paying attention to a similar situation that is ongoing between the Reds and pitcher Homer Bailey, whose arbitration hearing is scheduled for the same day. Whether it's a one-year deal or an extension, Masterson's next contract might be similar.

    Masterson, who turns 29 in March, has requested a salary of $11.8 million, and the Indians have offered $8.05 million, following him earning $5,687,500 in 2013. Bailey, who turns 28 in May, is seeking $11.6 million compared to Cincinnati's offer of $8.7 million, after the righty made $5.35 million in '13. Both Masterson and Bailey have expressed a willingness to discuss a long-term deal.

    Over the past three years, Masterson posted a 3.86 ERA, 2.24 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 1.31 WHIP and 100 ERA+ over 615 1/3 innings. In that same span, Bailey put up a 3.79 ERA, 3.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 1.21 WHIP and 105 ERA+ in 549 innings. Over his six-year career, Masterson has a 4.03 ERA to go along with a 100 ERA+, while Bailey has a 4.25 ERA and 96 ERA+ in parts of seven seasons.
    Last edited by klw; 02-04-2014 at 12:24 PM.

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    Norm Chortleton (02-04-2014)

  20. #148
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Bailey, Reds Far Apart In Extension Discussions
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/0...scussions.html

    Homer Bailey and the Reds are extremely far apart in extension talks, and barring large concessions by one or both sides, Bailey appears likely to become a free agent next offseason, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links). Last month, Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he was "optimistic" that Bailey and the Reds would be able to negotiate a long-term deal.

    Bailey filed for a 2014 salary of $11.6MM through the arbitration process, while the Reds countered with $8.7MM. After that, Bailey is due to hit the market as a 28-year-old, and if his 2014 season is anything like his 2013 (in which he posted a 3.49 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over 209 innings), he'll be an immensely valuable property -- Max Scherzer is the only 2014-15 free agent starter who rates more highly. Given the probability of an enormous payday for Bailey, it's easy to see why he and the Reds might be having trouble finding common ground on an extension.

  21. #149
    Member CmdrCody's Avatar
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    Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by SporkLover View Post
    X 2. More fodder for proof. Dave Dombrowski and Billy Beane are some of the best baseball minded GM's IMHO. they've made some whoppers of questinable decisions.



    Dombrowski gave Prince Fielder that whopper of a 9 year contract when there were plenty of reasons to question why. Prince was the top slugger at the time, but history has shown that sluggers with his kind of build fade fast. A 9 year deal was too long for him.



    Billy Beane traded one of his promising prospects away, Carlos Gonzalez, who put up unimpressive offensive numbers in a small sample as an A.

    The Prince Fielder signing was more or less due to the loss of Victor Martinez due to his knee injury. They needed protection for Miggy. The owner (Mr. Little Ceasers) made the deal happen. I agree it was too long a contract, but it got them to the WS that year. Sorry I live in SE Michigan and follow the Tigers and Reds. I do root for both except when the Reds play the Tigers, it's my original home team The Reds that gets my cheers at that point. I grew up with the Big Red Machine and follow whatever version of it exists at the time.
    Reds fan since 1968 win or lose.

  22. #150
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    The offseason just continues to ratchet up the excitement.
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

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