Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

[5TimeWSChamps]

Homer Bailey is a very good pitcher. That said, in his contract demands, he needs to weigh in the factor that he just might have an off-year this season. (Yeah I know, athletes often bet on themselves to perform)

He has 2 primo seasons under his belt at this point. If he underwhelms this year, it will cost him. I'd like to think he would allow a 10-15 MM discount off an extension right now to mitigate some risk.

Honestly. I think 5 years/$80 mil is fair for both sides. I'd hope the Reds don't insult Bailey and offer him less.

But if he won't take it, then you need to maximize his value.

And they could have signed Maholm, who just signed 1 year, $1.5 mil deal with LA.

[bigredmechanism]

Honestly. I think 5 years/$80 mil is fair for both sides. I'd hope the Reds don't insult Bailey and offer him less.

But if he won't take it, then you need to maximize his value.

And they could have signed Maholm, who just signed 1 year, $1.5 mil deal with LA.

Trade Bailey, sign Maholm....



That's not a winning combo.

[5TimeWSChamps]

Trade Bailey, sign Maholm....



That's not a winning combo.

It is to bridge the gap to Stephenson.

So Maholm is good enough for LA, who has Greinke, Kershaw, Ryo, etc,

But not good enough for Cincinnati.

Got it

[bigredmechanism]

It is to bridge the gap to Stephenson.

So Maholm is good enough for LA, who has Greinke, Kershaw, Ryo, etc,

But not good enough for Cincinnati.

Got it

A bridge is fine, but you are throwing away this season before a pitch is even thrown.

Why not just sign Eric Milton as a bridge? That worked out well in our glory days before Homer, didn't it? Maybe Elizardo is still available.

LA also has essentially unlimited money. This is not Baseball Mogul.

[5TimeWSChamps]

A bridge is fine, but you are throwing away this season before a pitch is even thrown.

Why not just sign Eric Milton as a bridge? That worked out well in our glory days before Homer, didn't it? Maybe Elizardo is still available.

LA also has essentially unlimited money. This is not Baseball Mogul.

How is it throwing away the season?

Maholm would be your #5 starter, the Reds have had much worse #2 starters in the last 10 years, much less a #5 starter.

Your top 4 is still great.

[bigredmechanism]

How is it throwing away the season?

Maholm would be your #5 starter, the Reds have had much worse #2 starters in the last 10 years, much less a #5 starter.

Your top 4 is still great.

I don't want to go back to the lost decade, bro. I enjoy watching Reds teams with good pitchers on them.

[PepperJack]

I'm going to guess Bailey is thinking closer to 6/100+, than he is the 5/80 neighborhood. He hired his new agent for a reason, the same one that got Kershaw and Tanaka their money, and Homer might want that type of deal to give up free agency.

I also doubt his trade market is booming right now, with Burnett, Jimenez and Santana sitting by the phone, at a fraction of the cost. Yeah, they require a draft pick, but for some teams that would be easier to swallow than a top prospect, plus an extra 30-50+ million dollars.

The market for pitching has been unusual all offseason anyway. As the Rays found out, when they couldn't get what they wanted for Price, and Santana and Jimenez turned down the QO looking for the massive payday, that still hasn't came in early February.

The Reds option of a one year deal playing out through the season, feeling out where they are at the deadline, and then making the QO next offseason, if necessary, might find Homer cheaper than he is now.

[5TimeWSChamps]

I don't want to go back to the lost decade, bro. I enjoy watching Reds teams with good pitchers on them.

Gotcha. So after 2015 what is the team going to have in the rotation? You have one viable prospect in Stephenson, and 4/5 of your rotation about to be due big pay days...

[bigredmechanism]

Gotcha. So after 2015 what is the team going to have in the rotation? You have one viable prospect in Stephenson, and 4/5 of your rotation about to be due big pay days...

I'll worry about 2016 when it happens. Trading away all your talent for guys who might be talented is a terrible idea. We already have the talent, know what I'm saying?

We're a small market team, and we have a window. Right now. No one you trade Bailey for will make us better this year. No one. Sure, maybe the prospects you get pan out in a few years, but who knows what happens with all the other talent we currently have. Maybe Latos wants to be a FA as well. Maybe Bruce will. No one knows.

Trading for prospects that might not pan out does nothing to help up win a WS while we have a chance. Trading Bailey significantly hurts that prospect for 2014. I'll take success now and a decade of losing any time over mediocrity and continuously losing out on good talent because we're too scared to lose a guy.

Sometimes guys walk away. No offense, but you seem very invested that we have a bad year. It's not just you, either, so I'm not singling you out. This whole offseason on this board has been a bunch of whining and negativity. Newsflash: The Reds are good. We've been good for a few years. We've won 90 or more games 3 out of 4 years. Enjoy it, because it's not going to last.

[5TimeWSChamps]

Sometimes guys walk away. No offense, but you seem very invested that we have a bad year. It's not just you, either, so I'm not singling you out. This whole offseason on this board has been a bunch of whining and negativity. Newsflash: The Reds are good. We've been good for a few years. We've won 90 or more games 3 out of 4 years. Enjoy it, because it's not going to last.

I just don't see a plan. I see a FO praying that a lot of What If's pan out (Hamilton, Frazier, Cozart, Ludwick, Mesoraco)

It seems like there's a lot that has to go right for this team to seriously contend. And I truly believe the Front Office went into this offseason with no idea what the plan was to improve the team.

I don't see an identity with the team.

[CySeymour]

I just don't see a plan. I see a FO praying that a lot of What If's pan out (Hamilton, Frazier, Cozart, Ludwick, Mesoraco)

It seems like there's a lot that has to go right for this team to seriously contend. And I truly believe the Front Office went into this offseason with no idea what the plan was to improve the team.

I don't see an identity with the team.

I think it's very possible their plan is to at the worst take the draft pick for Bailey, sign one of Latos or Cueto next off season then trade the other. Not saying it's a good plan, but just what they may be thinking.

[Kc61]

Can anyone imagine Billy Beane losing a Bailey caliber pitcher for a sandwich pick?

The notion of keeping Bailey for one more big season is great, but it leaves the Reds high and dry afterwards.

The idea of losing Choo, Arroyo, Bailey, then maybe Latos, losing them all for nothing but some sandwich picks is not the way to handle a small market team.

You either have to sign these guys within your budget relatively early or trade them for major value. Particularly under the new system where you only get a sandwich pick.

If the ball club has budgetary issues they have to be more pro-active in getting good players who fit the budget, and trading players who don't fit the budget and won't sign.

[Wonderful Monds]

I think they're trying, it's just been a perfect storm of circumstances keeping them from making big deals.

Been hearing that for years.

[5TimeWSChamps]

Can anyone imagine Billy Beane losing a Bailey caliber pitcher for a sandwich pick?

The notion of keeping Bailey for one more big season is great, but it leaves the Reds high and dry afterwards.

The idea of losing Choo, Arroyo, Bailey, then maybe Latos, losing them all for nothing but some sandwich picks is not the way to handle a small market team.

You either have to sign these guys within your budget relatively early or trade them for major value. Particularly under the new system where you only get a sandwich pick.

If the ball club has budgetary issues they have to be more pro-active in getting good players who fit the budget, and trading players who don't fit the budget and won't sign.

Yep. And combined with the fact that the new scouting seems to be going away from college kids and taking High School Power Arms who are even further from the big leagues. It leaves a gap that you're seeing in the farm systems now

[dubc47834]

Ok, so keep living in the past where the Reds have yet to win a home playoff game.

Great job by the front office!

Early playoff exit after early playoff exit. At least they won 2 games in 2012!

Early playoff exit is wayyyyy better than no playoff entry