Reds don't have to emulate Beane precisely, move for move.
But if the budget is a big issue they need to avoid simply letting players depart in exchange for sandwich draft picks. Sign them early or trade them for full value.
I would really like the Reds to sign Homer and sooner or later they might. It's not easy when you're dealing with a confident guy that could earn himself a fortune this year. And by a fortune I mean much more than what any of us would want the Reds forking out right now. Homer knows it, Walt knows it and we know it. This is probably just going to have to play out. It's just like it was with Choo, Homer has a career year and he'll price himself out of Cincinnati.
What about Tampa? They aggressively move most guys just ahead of their expensive years. Turned shields into will Myers a year ago. It's how a team with a limited payroll can keep the talent stocked.
Reds don't have to emulate Beane precisely, move for move.
But if the budget is a big issue they need to avoid simply letting players depart in exchange for sandwich draft picks. Sign them early or trade them for full value.Couldn't agree more.What about Tampa? They aggressively move most guys just ahead of their expensive years. Turned shields into will Myers a year ago. It's how a team with a limited payroll can keep the talent stocked.
Such scenarios allow for "reloading", rather than rebuilding. I, for one, do not believe that adopting such a blueprint will set us back to the lost decade, as some fear, for at least two reasons:
* This franchise has a solid track record of developing positional players/bats.
* The problems which prevented the Reds -- as a franchise -- from developing starting pitching have been seemingly corrected. The end of the roid era has kind of placed pitching at much closer to an even keel league-wide, as well.
Add these factors, shake well, and it seems like the prudent course of action for a market of this size, at least to this Redzoner.
"I have just been more than a little suspect of all the trades since the Willy (Scott Williamson) cash grab. That one left such a bad taste in my mouth that even a 1985 Dom Pérignon couldn't cleanse it." -- Creek14
Nov '06: Billy Beane let's the face of the A's team, Cy Young winner Barry Zito, wak in FA for a supplemental 1st round pick. The pick netted them Sean Doolittle, their best current RP.
Now, part of the reason he did that was:
Dec '04: Tim Hudson was traded before his last year of arb for a mediocre haul -- Dan Meyer (bust), Kiko Calero (a few decent years) and Daric Barton (AAAA backup)
Dec '04: Mark Mulder was traded before his last year of arb for a nice haul, most notably Dan Haren (who was turned in to an even better haul after 3 years). I wonder what GM was stupid enough to trade Dan Haren for 1 year of Mark Mulder?
One of the trades produced excellent value. The other provided very little. It's a crapshoot. You speak with such certainty and yet the paragon of small market guruness did exactly what you say is unimaginable.
Does that make letting him walk in FA the smart move? Probably not. I'd certainly argue flipping him would be the right move.
But at the same time, let's not kid ourselves; Walt knows how this works. He's got a lot more information than we do. I would it find it a curious move, but hardly indefensible, especially when we don't know what kind of offers Walt may have gotten (or more precisely, not gotten) on the trade market. Yeah, the Rays got Wil Myers for Shields. But notice what uniform David Price is wearing. There isn't always a good deal to be made.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
The player has to be willing to sign early, as you are well aware, and the return has to be worth the player you are letting walk, again, as you are aware.
I really believe that some fans are just frustrated by a lack of moves, and almost want just anything to happen, good, bad, or other. The only trade that happened at last year's July deadline was a minor move. There are quite a few talented players still sitting at home without a contract. The market changed after the last CBA, and some fans haven't adjusted yet. Teams value their draft picks more, and teams try to sign their younger talent earlier, keeping some talent away from free agency at earlier ages.
There is little harm in just getting a draft pick if your top talent won't resign when you want them to. At least, if you believe in your ability to draft and develop, which the Reds track record would say they do.
By all accounts they've tried to extend him last offseason and this one. Takes two to tango.You then let him go for a sandwich pick.
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
If the Reds don't get a deal done with Bailey, I'm not going to think the Reds didn't try hard enough, I'm going to think Bailey wants to see what his top dollar will be.
Teams lose top talent for little more than a comp pick all the time. Boston just let go of Ellsbury for nothing more than that this offseason, and are in the same boat as the Reds with Bailey in Lester this season, even though Lester said he would give them some type of discount. They have infinite more money than the Reds, and a FO that people trip over themselves to congratulate. Yet it's still a reality teams face.
The Reds are a 100+ million payroll club now, not the 60-70 million they used to be, and they have shown a willingness to lock up their players that are open to the idea for the most part.
All of this said, the Reds still haven't lost Bailey for a comp pick. Maybe they agree to a deal, or maybe Homer hits the market, and finds he might not get what he thought, and comes closer to the Reds range.
If only there was a 200+ IP starter with a history of pitching well for the Reds that they could have signed as a replacement for Homer Bailey that would allow them to trade him for value.
24 Years and Counting...