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Thread: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

  1. #46
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    The "elite" highly paid arms in the Red Sox pen? The Cardinals pen? Look around, at what some of these teams are actually paying guys in the bullpen these days, and you will see that the Reds are out of line.
    Red Sox spent $22M on their pen last year.

    Cards have always been able to develop good young arms for the pen and they still spent $12M for thier pen.

    Take Broxton out of the Reds pen and they would be around $18M for next year. That's probably average for a contending team.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  4. #47
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Red Sox spent $22M on their pen last year.

    Cards have always been able to develop good young arms for the pen and they still spent $12M for thier pen.

    Take Broxton out of the Reds pen and they would be around $18M for next year. That's probably average for a contending team.
    You can't take Broxton out of the equation.

    All the pitches that Bailey and Hanrahan threw for the RedSox in the playoffs illustrate the point.
    Last edited by LoganBuck; 01-18-2014 at 05:24 PM.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  5. #48
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Red Sox spent $22M on their pen last year.

    Cards have always been able to develop good young arms for the pen and they still spent $12M for thier pen.

    Take Broxton out of the Reds pen and they would be around $18M for next year. That's probably average for a contending team.
    What percentage of the payroll was the Red Sox and Cardinals? Nobody is saying that the Reds need all minimum wage relievers, but having 25% of the payroll tied up in the bullpen just isn't viable. Broxton and Marshall got hurt. It happens. That means to reallocate resources, the team needs to make a good trade for Chapman IMO. They may be able to deal Marshall, but I don't think it frees enough salary over the next few years and won't bring back the talent influx needed.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  7. #49
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Broxton was Chapmans replacement. It backfired. So let's not blame all of that on Walt.

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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Great news. I'm ok with pitching and defense. Hang on to Votto and Bruce and hope for league average production everywhere else.
    I'm ok with the Reds spending on pitching now. Sure, pay Homer (but not wildly overboard). Pay Latos. Keep Chapman. Votto, Phillips, others on offense already got their deals.

    But my problem with the front office is that they indeed seem to be "hoping" for league average offensive production. They should do more than hope.

    My issue with this off-season is not that they failed to spend big dollars on offense. But that they did almost nothing to revise the offense.

    Look at last year's offensive numbers at almost every position. Subtract out Choo. Don't tell me that no position could have been improved for modest money.

    Platoon players. A couple strong bench hitters. A better fourth outfielder who could share time with Ludwick and Hamilton.

    So yes, invest in pitching now. But it's hard to accept that Skip Schumaker (with worse numbers than XPaul recently) and the backup catcher were the only possible changes to the offense that were feasible throughout the whole calendar year.

    Spend on pitching. But be creative about your offense. It counts.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-18-2014 at 06:57 PM.

  10. #51
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    I've been reading your posts lately kc61, and I have no idea what in specific would make you happy. Care to truly expound?

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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I've been reading your posts lately kc61, and I have no idea what in specific would make you happy. Care to truly expound?
    I'll bite, but I don't have Walt's database in front of me so I'm speaking of general types.

    1. I think the trio of Mesoraco, Frazier and Cozart (maybe add Phillips) needs more support. I'm ok with Pena as a backup, the Reds want to give Mes a full shot, I can accept that.

    But Frazier/Cozart should not be getting 600 PAs each IMO. I would have liked to see a strong lefty hitting part-timer for at least one. Eric Chavez would have been a very good example. Or another good lefty hitting part-time infielder. (Hannahan is more of a defensive player.)

    2. The outfield also needs more hitting support. A starting CF, a D'Aza type, would have been ideal with Hamilton as fourth outfielder getting meaningful time. But short of that, I would prefer a better hitting backup plan than Heisey/Schumaker for the outfielders.

    If not D'Aza, a guy like Seth Smith did well in the NL and was traded to the Padres. Going back to the deadline, David DeJesus. I'm sure there are others.

    Overall the team's OBP is pretty woeful without Choo and I would have liked to see the addition of a few veteran strong hitters who know how to hit and walk. As a group, Frazier, Mes, Cozart, Heisey and even Mes and Phillips need hitting support, mostly from the left side.

    And if three of these types is too expensive, get two. Or one good one.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-18-2014 at 09:12 PM.

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  13. #53
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I'll bite, but I don't have Walt's database in front of me so I'm speaking of general types.

    1. I think the trio of Mesoraco, Frazier and Cozart (maybe add Phillips) needs more support. I'm ok with Pena as a backup, the Reds want to give Mes a full shot, I can accept that.

    But Frazier/Cozart should not be getting 600 PAs each IMO. I would have liked to see a strong lefty hitting part-timer for at least one. Eric Chavez would have been a very good example. Or another good lefty hitting part-time infielder. (Hannahan is more of a defensive player.)

    2. The outfield also needs more hitting support. A starting CF, a D'Aza type, would have been ideal with Hamilton as fourth outfielder getting meaningful time. But short of that, I would prefer a better hitting backup plan than Heisey/Schumaker for the outfielders.

    If not D'Aza, a guy like Seth Smith did well in the NL and was traded to the Padres. Going back to the deadline, David DeJesus. I'm sure there are others.

    Overall the team's OBP is pretty woeful without Choo and I would have liked to see the addition of a few veteran strong hitters who know how to hit and walk. As a group, Frazier, Mes, Cozart, Heisey and even Mes and Phillips need hitting support, mostly from the left side.

    And if three of these types is too expensive, get two. Or one good one.
    It's a tough situation though. Do you give up a top 10 prospect to get D'Aza?
    That's probably what it would've taken. Then the manager is in a bit of a quandary. Play De Aza to "Win now" or let your best prospect have a shot?
    De Aza is making a little over 4 million now, not the greatest defensive CF, and is already 30 years old.. I just don't get it.. He's a less athletic version of Stubbs, with a little more OBP but not the defense. Not exactly an impact player.

    Dejesus is a similar guy. A nice role player. Signed for about 2 years/10 million. I don't think he can really play CF anymore. (Maybe I'm wrong).
    De Aza and Dejesus seem like the type of averagish, non impact players that the Reds should not be investing in.

    I get where you're coming from. I am optimistic about Ludwick (more than most), but it's a bit scary to try to count on him in LF. I hope his rehab is going well and he has a nice rebound next year. I don't expect another monster year like 2012, but he seemed to still be able to make contact when he came back last season, despite being well below 100%. If nothing else, he will help us against LH pitching.

    Long winded way of saying that I would rather invest money somewhere else than relatively expensive stopgaps than De Aza and Dejesus. If one of them could defend like Stubbs (or as well as I hope Hamilton will), then I'd be more interested.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Walt has been great at signing players seemingly impossible to resign, such as Votto and Bruce for good contracts. The Chapman contract was a good one completely unexpected when you look at the history of this organization.

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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    It's a tough situation though. Do you give up a top 10 prospect to get D'Aza?
    That's probably what it would've taken. Then the manager is in a bit of a quandary. Play De Aza to "Win now" or let your best prospect have a shot?
    De Aza is making a little over 4 million now, not the greatest defensive CF, and is already 30 years old.. I just don't get it.. He's a less athletic version of Stubbs, with a little more OBP but not the defense. Not exactly an impact player.

    Long winded way of saying that I would rather invest money somewhere else than relatively expensive stopgaps than De Aza and Dejesus. If one of them could defend like Stubbs (or as well as I hope Hamilton will), then I'd be more interested.
    As I said, I don't have Walt's database of all available players in front of me. I answered the request for specifics as best I could. The specific names can always be debated.

    The Reds took a questionable offense. They subtracted a major player in Choo. They did not add a single offensive player slated to get meaningful playing time.

    If the Reds are really down to their last dime, they didn't need to re-sign Heisey and spend almost $2 million, for example. It just cannot be that this team couldn't find a way to afford a single platoon player who will get 300 at bats and hit for a solid OBP.

    They chose to rely on big turnarounds by players at C, 3B, SS, LF and 2B and a strong rookie season in CF.

    It wasn't a matter of acquiring offensive stars, I'm happy to put the big money into pitching.

    But IMO they should have been more active in upgrading the offense with lower cost additions who could share positions, or at least add serious bench bats.

    In a million years after last season I never would have quessed that we'd see the same offense again, minus one of the three stars, with no upgrade anywhere except maybe backup catcher.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-19-2014 at 01:46 PM.

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  18. #56
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Short of spinning things, it is a false premise to believe they can't afford a super-sub guy as you desire.

    They are just choosing to allocate resources elsewhere.

    Wordplay perhaps, but it sounds like you would rather have a better guy in the outfield vs a Bailey extension.

  19. #57
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    Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    I Can agree that maybe the Reds are paying a lot for a bullpen that is not used much. Our starting pitching goes 7 to 8 innings a game.

    In the past the Reds needed a solid bullpen because the starting 5 were terrible.

    Until Spring Training comes we don't know what Chapman will be doing.

    This team is basically the same team as last year when the season started with the exception of Choo. So Hamilton becomes the first lead off hitter this team has NEVER had in years. Ludwick got hurt. Votto had a down year in numbers. BP hitting 2nd where he belongs will increase runs for this team.

    Choo was not a lead off hitter. Yet he was put there. Choo was not a center fielder but he was put there.

    Choo had decent numbers before coming to the Reds. He had his monster season last year. He was not worth a 7 year contract for the Reds. The money will be used for Bailey and Latos.

    For once the Reds have a good problem. Great players that need to be paid. This has never happened before.

    I think Bailey will be signed. I think Latos will be signed. The Reds gave up a ton for him. He bought a house in Cincy. Lives here and loves it here.

    Cueto had his spotlight years. Just like Volquez he is probably on the downside. Not a problem. The Reds got what they needed out of him and have home grown talent to take his place.

    This team has home grown talent on the team and I like the idea of sticking with them from draft day til the end. (Yes I know Cueto is home grown)

    The Front office is doing more things to promote this team than most other teams.

    They are willing to spend money to put a good product on the field.

    The fans are coming to games.
    Last edited by alexad; 01-19-2014 at 01:53 PM.
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  21. #58
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Short of spinning things, it is a false premise to believe they can't afford a super-sub guy as you desire.

    They are just choosing to allocate resources elsewhere.

    Wordplay perhaps, but it sounds like you would rather have a better guy in the outfield vs a Bailey extension.
    So you suggest, and it could be right, that the Reds just decided that offense was such a low priority item that they would choose to allocate every single dime away from offensive improvement.

    If so, they weren't watching last year.

    As for your last point, the outfield addition I suggest should have no impact on signing Bailey. One is a hundred million dollar item. The other is a about a four or five million dollar item.

    I really think I've made my position very clear. I'm not upset that they chose to avoid big expenditures on offense. I am satisfied for them to allocate their big money to pitching. I am however unhappy that they chose to sit entirely still with their offense and failed to improve it with lower cost moves.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-19-2014 at 02:19 PM.

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  23. #59
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    As I said, I don't have Walt's database of all available players in front of me. I answered the request for specifics as best I could. The specific names can always be debated.

    The Reds took a questionable offense. They subtracted a major player in Choo. They did not add a single offensive player slated to get meaningful playing time.

    If the Reds are really down to their last dime, they didn't need to re-sign Heisey and spend almost $2 million, for example. It just cannot be that this team couldn't find a way to afford a single platoon player who will get 300 at bats and hit for a solid OBP.

    They chose to rely on big turnarounds by players at C, 3B, SS, LF and 2B and a strong rookie season in CF.

    It wasn't a matter of acquiring offensive stars, I'm happy to put the big money into pitching.

    But IMO they should have been more active in upgrading the offense with lower cost additions who could share positions, or at least add serious bench bats.

    In a million years after last season I never would have quessed that we'd see the same offense again, minus one of the three stars, with no upgrade anywhere except maybe backup catcher.
    I agree that it would be nice to have an offensive improvement.
    My point is that it's hard to do. Even if you spend 4-5 million, like De Aza or Dejesus, you aren't exactly getting an impact guy.

    I will disagree on one thing though. Heisey makes sense at 1.7 million as LF insurance and CF insurance. Not really sure I want Schumaker playing CF in a large park. Heisey can cover all 3 OF spots. That's valuable and worth it. He's also an ok bat off the bench. Sure, I'd love more OBP, but at 1.7 million, he's not bad.

    I'm not really panicing over Choo leaving though. The guy was a star, and a net loss, but honestly some speed is really going to help this team. As it's been pointed out, the team really isn't the greatest station to station ballclub.
    I guess money is just going to get tighter each year, as the team ages, I would rather be careful spending money (like extending Bailey) as opposed to adding a middling OF. Although, I guess stepping back.. the guys you suggested aren't super expensive.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I agree that it would be nice to have an offensive improvement.
    My point is that it's hard to do. Even if you spend 4-5 million, like De Aza or Dejesus, you aren't exactly getting an impact guy.

    I will disagree on one thing though. Heisey makes sense at 1.7 million as LF insurance and CF insurance. Not really sure I want Schumaker playing CF in a large park. Heisey can cover all 3 OF spots. That's valuable and worth it. He's also an ok bat off the bench. Sure, I'd love more OBP, but at 1.7 million, he's not bad.

    I'm not really panicing over Choo leaving though. The guy was a star, and a net loss, but honestly some speed is really going to help this team. As it's been pointed out, the team really isn't the greatest station to station ballclub.
    I guess money is just going to get tighter each year, as the team ages, I would rather be careful spending money (like extending Bailey) as opposed to adding a middling OF. Although, I guess stepping back.. the guys you suggested aren't super expensive.
    We do disagree on Heisey. He's a low OBP hitter, almost never walks. I would have used his $1.7 million toward a bat, a better OBP man.

    And if the new guy can't play CF, then I would have opted for a defensive CFer rather than Schumaker, who I agree isn't a real CF option.

    Hard for me to see where the OBP is going to come from on this team as constituted.

    Except that some OBP will come from Votto who probably will be walked repeatedly and constantly.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-19-2014 at 06:20 PM.


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