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Thread: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

  1. #76
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Red Sox spent $22M on their pen last year.

    Cards have always been able to develop good young arms for the pen and they still spent $12M for thier pen.

    Take Broxton out of the Reds pen and they would be around $18M for next year. That's probably average for a contending team.
    How much of that Red Sox money was tied up in Bailey and Hanrahan?

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  3. #77
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    FWIW Dave Cameron thinks a reasonable deal for Bailey if he reaches free agency is 6/$150M if he has a good 2014.
    .

  4. #78
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    FWIW Dave Cameron thinks a reasonable deal for Bailey if he reaches free agency is 6/$150M if he has a good 2014.
    He has been saying that but I don't see it.

    That is 25 MM a year. Going off the 5 MM per WAR model, (which may be slightly bumped up due to inflation) that is paying for a 5 WAR season.

    Homer Baileys WAR are 1.8, 1.3, 2.5, and 3.7 over the past 4 years.

  5. #79
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    FWIW Dave Cameron thinks a reasonable deal for Bailey if he reaches free agency is 6/$150M if he has a good 2014.
    I hope Cameron is pretty well limbered up, because that's a pretty huge number to pull out of one's backside.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    PuffyPig (01-29-2014)

  7. #80
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    FWIW Rosenthal guesses 15-17 mil per year for Homer.
    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/r...players-012814

    If the Reds aren’t thinking about trading a starter, maybe they should be. Right-hander Homer Bailey is a free agent after this season, and righties Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto all could be free after 2015.

    At some point, something has to give.

    The Reds are trying to sign Bailey to an extension, but that might not be easy to do — Bailey, who turns 28 on May 3, is coming off two straight impressive seasons, and could seek $15 million to $17 million annually for his free-agent years.

    Would the Reds want Bailey and first baseman Joey Votto accounting for nearly 40 percent of their payroll if they stayed in the $110 million range?

    Latos, Leake and Cueto, meanwhile, are not all long-term solutions; just as the Reds are replacing righty Bronson Arroyo with lefty Tony Cingrani this season, they will replace one of the others with their top prospect, right-hander Robert Stephenson, as soon as ’15.

  8. #81
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    FWIW Rosenthal guesses 15-17 mil per year for Homer.
    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/r...players-012814
    That sounds about right.

    6 yr 100 MM seems fair for him.

  9. #82
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    $15M/ is a different animal than $25M/. 6 years at $15M is "ONLY" $90M. That could still leave room for one of Latos or Cueto.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  10. #83
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    granted, this was a year ago, but the Cincinnati Business Courier had this article:

    http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnat...to-expire.html


    While the Reds deal is for a reported $30 million a year, sports media experts have said that could rise as high as $75 million with the next deal. And with the emergence of Time Warner on the sports programming scene, that figure could go even higher if a bidding war breaks out.

    I don't think the Reds are gonna stay in the $110 range for long. But $45 million/year doesn't go as far as it used to in MLB but if they manage to backload some more deals it may help a little bit.
    Last edited by Beatlessp; 01-29-2014 at 04:35 PM.

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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    That sounds about right.

    6 yr 100 MM seems fair for him.
    I think that is a tad low, I could see a 6/8 deal with the last two voidable for $144 million which is about $18 mil. a year. Bailey after this deal will be around 33 year old at which point can sign another 5/7 deal for around $150 million.

    Reds after 2016 are going to have new TV dealing paying around $80 million year, which means he's is singable.

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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead View Post

    Reds after 2016 are going to have new TV dealing paying around $80 million year, which means he's is singable.
    Maybe he can join Bronson's band.

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    Norm Chortleton (01-31-2014)

  14. #86
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
    I think that is a tad low, I could see a 6/8 deal with the last two voidable for $144 million which is about $18 mil. a year. Bailey after this deal will be around 33 year old at which point can sign another 5/7 deal for around $150 million.

    Reds after 2016 are going to have new TV dealing paying around $80 million year, which means he's is singable.
    If he has a good/great year this season, your scenario seems pretty legit. However, as of today, I struggle to see him getting that, we are talking about a guy with only one 3+ WAR season to date.

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    If he has a good/great year this season, your scenario seems pretty legit. However, as of today, I struggle to see him getting that, we are talking about a guy with only one 3+ WAR season to date.
    What do you think Scherzer would get as a free agent right now? Because that would be a good comp for Bailey after 2014, If Bailey has a breakout year in 2014.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #88
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    What do you think Scherzer would get as a free agent right now? Because that would be a good comp for Bailey after 2014, If Bailey has a breakout year in 2014.
    I don't follow AL guys really, but I don't see how you comp them at this juncture. Scherzer averages 4+ WAR over the past four seasons. Bailey has never hit 4 WAR. Scherzer was a 6+ WAR pitcher last season.

    If he was a FA today, just based on a quick look at his numbers, he probably would get in the 25 MM range. But again, I don't think he comps to Bailey at all...today.

  17. #89
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I don't follow AL guys really, but I don't see how you comp them at this juncture. Scherzer averages 4+ WAR over the past four seasons. Bailey has never hit 4 WAR. Scherzer was a 6+ WAR pitcher last season.

    If he was a FA today, just based on a quick look at his numbers, he probably would get in the 25 MM range. But again, I don't think he comps to Bailey at all...today.
    Scherzer was a 3.50-4.00 ERA guy his whole career until he was able to breakout with 2.90 ERA last year. Some of that might be due to his BABIP, which was a little high earlier, and very low last season, or he finally learned how to maximize his potential.

    The big difference between him and Bailey is that Scherzer has been a 30 start, 175-200 IP guy the last five years, while Bailey has been that for only the past two.

    The big overarching view on the two is the both spent awhile with a lot of untapped potential. Scherzer tapped into his last year. If Bailey taps into his in 2014, I think GM's will look at them the same.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  18. #90
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Scherzer was a 3.50-4.00 ERA guy his whole career until he was able to breakout with 2.90 ERA last year. Some of that might be due to his BABIP, which was a little high earlier, and very low last season, or he finally learned how to maximize his potential.

    The big difference between him and Bailey is that Scherzer has been a 30 start, 175-200 IP guy the last five years, while Bailey has been that for only the past two.

    The big overarching view on the two is the both spent awhile with a lot of untapped potential. Scherzer tapped into his last year. If Bailey taps into his in 2014, I think GM's will look at them the same.
    If Bailey rips off a 6+ WAR season, I will certainly be singing a different tune.

    I respectfully disagree that they comp well today.

    Going back 5 years, Max is at 953 IP 20.4 WAR.

    Homer is at 771 IP 10.4 WAR.

    Eliminate the IP difference and they still don't "rate" out to be similar pitchers. I think the above numbers show Max to be at least 1.5 more productive per inning pitched than Homer over the past 5 years...the time period cited. Even last year I think he comps out at a similar rate.


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