Walt optimistic on Bailey extension

[Patrick Bateman]

The Yanks and Dodgers (two of the most free-spending teams in baseball took a look at Brandon's contract and said, "Blech!"

The didnt want to do it at the price the price the Reds wanted. You make it seem like Walt begged them to take Brandon. That's almost certainly not what happened.

[membengal]

The didnt want to do it at the price the price the Reds wanted. You make it seem like Walt begged them to take Brandon. That's almost certainly not what happened.

That doesn't improve things. "We'll take the contract, but its so onerous, just taking the contract is all the value we care to give you" is in essence what that is.

[Patrick Bateman]

That doesn't improve things. "We'll take the contract, but its so onerous, just taking the contract is all the value we care to give you" is in essence what that is.

1. We don't know how hard they shopped Brandon. There were very conflicting reports.

2. We don't know what was actually asked for. The most concrete was Gardner, who is a similarly capable player with less guarantee to the contract. Gardner has considerable value it's not like the Reds were asking for "anything" of value to get rid of Brandon, they were likely looking to get a significant piece back. That doesn't preclude teams from not wanting his contract or willing to give up some pieces.

3. Considering the Yankees didnt trade Gardner at all, and Cashman went on the record for him, this was a player they very much value.

4. I just think people are writing their own stories about what exactly happened in brandon trade talks and I think a lot of it is unsubstantiated. A quick look at Infante's new deal would suggest that Brandon, a much more talented player is worth his contract. Teams intersted in him were likely not looking to remove from their roster in a trade for Brandon, they probably wanted to add Brandon to the mix. I see the Reds as being a fickle trade partner in trade talks for him because they dont have a viable in house solution and would need to immediately get his replacement somewhere else.

I just don't buy what is being sold out there.

[757690]

The Dodgers wanted Phillips. They offered Matt Kemp for Phillips and Bailey. I know because I read it on twitter

[membengal]

1. We don't know how hard they shopped Brandon. There were very conflicting reports.

2. We don't know what was actually asked for. The most concrete was Gardner, who is a similarly capable player with less guarantee to the contract. Gardner has considerable value it's not like the Reds were asking for "anything" of value to get rid of Brandon, they were likely looking to get a significant piece back. That doesn't preclude teams from not wanting his contract or willing to give up some pieces.

3. Considering the Yankees didnt trade Gardner at all, and Cashman went on the record for him, this was a player they very much value.

4. I just think people are writing their own stories about what exactly happened in brandon trade talks and I think a lot of it is unsubstantiated. A quick look at Infante's new deal would suggest that Brandon, a much more talented player is worth his contract. Teams intersted in him were likely not looking to remove from their roster in a trade for Brandon, they probably wanted to add Brandon to the mix. I see the Reds as being a fickle trade partner in trade talks for him because they dont have a viable in house solution and would need to immediately get his replacement somewhere else.

I just don't buy what is being sold out there.

Fair enough. I certainly don't know the truth either.

I do know that contract isn't going to improve with age (because it doesn't seem reasonable to expect Brandon to improve with age either - the money goes up as his production drops - it's why these kinds of contracts are hard to wrap ones mind around). And that's a problem for this team under its current self-imposed budget.

[Patrick Bateman]

Definitely don't disagree with you there.

[RedEye]

I wonder if Walt actually is still optimistic about a Bailey extension.

[Kingspoint]

Does that mean Bruce's & Votto's contracts aren't worth it either? Personally I can't wait for Brandon to have a really solid year this season and shut up all his detractors. And yes, I'm fully aware that I'm quite often delusional. :O)

Bruce's and Votto's contracts began during the upswing of their careers, especially Bruce's. Phillips' began during his downswing. But, that was the price to pay in order to give Baker a chance to win in the post-season. Walt swung and missed, but it was a risk worth taking at the time. When the contract was signed, it had to be believed that opportunities would arise where he could unload the contract. It just hasn't happened. The worst-case scenario has happened to where the REDS appear stuck with a bad contract. It's not the first time, and it won't be the last. Larkin and Griffey's contracts killed this club a lot worse than this one of Brandon's. Both of those contracts were for players who produced much less while taking up a larger percentage of the overall payroll. (one can argue against Junior's because it was spread out for so many seasons, but he still had to get paid the money in the end)

Brandon has yet to have a bad season under this contract, and has had nothing but good seasons at the minimum. He's earned every penny up to this point. It's the years coming up that have always been the bad part of the contract. There was never really an issue of Brandon playing well enough for the money through 2013.

[Kc61]

I wonder if Walt actually is still optimistic about a Bailey extension.

We're now in the arbitration hearing period. I can't find anywhere on the net the dates for these hearings. I don't know when Homer's hearing date is.

But Bailey really calls the issue with this team.

I think the most likely scenario is that they pay him $10 million for one-year. The Reds then can still tell the fans they are going for it in 2014. Their pitching staff will be intact and it obviously gives the club the best chance this year.

But is a championship realistic with no off-season improvements to the offense? Are they kidding themselves, and possibly hurting themselves, by keeping Homer for only one more year?

Or are the Reds better off trading Homer, getting some offense or a top prospect or both. And starting to re-tool the club with more affordable players.

Sign, trade, or hold. Each has benefits and detriments. We'll see.

[Kingspoint]

And assessing risk based on whether the Reds have won a playoff series is beyond comprehension.

It's the only reason. It's why the contract was offered to Brandon in the first place. In order to get Brandon's good years through 2013 for a chance to win the World Series under Baker, they had to overpay Phillips for several seasons beyond 2013.

Because they failed to win even one playoff series, though it certainly wasn't Brandon's fault as he's been the absolutely most consistent position player on the team during this last contract of his, the contract has proven to have been a mistake, as it's now one of the ugliest contracts in baseball. You're crazy if you think any team would want to pay him the rest of this contract now for the projected output they are going to get from him. The only way the REDS could get rid of Brandon now is if they pay part of the salary themselves or toss in prospect(s) to lessen the burden of the remaining years of the contract.

The REDS are stuck with Brandon and his dwindling output for the remainder of the contract. Nobody on redszone sees more value in Brandon Phillips than I do, as I value Defense more than any body here....there is no close second. But, I'm not going to try and deny the huge loss of Offensive output that's going to occur from here on out over the next four seasons at a cost of $50M (11-12% of total payroll over this time with other large percentages locked in on Bruce, Votto and Bailey/Latos) and Brandon holding a no-trade clause for up to ten clubs.

Those monies going to Brandon will be badly needed over the next four seasons for other players on the 25-man roster. It could mean the difference between a weak bench and a good one.

[Kc61]

The REDS are stuck with Brandon and his dwindling output for the remainder of the contract. Nobody on redszone sees more value in Brandon Phillips than I do, as I value Defense more than any body here....there is no close second. But, I'm not going to try and deny the huge loss of Offensive output that's going to occur from here on out over the next four seasons at a cost of $50M and Brandon holding a no-trade clause for up to ten clubs.

Why is it a given that Phillips output will dwindle? He's 32, he isn't old by today's standards. He didn't do that well last season, but many think it was injury related.

His contract is not a plus right now, but I don't think it's because of his play.

I think BP's contract is problematic because the Reds apparently are back to the "small market spending" days of minor league free agents and "no, no, no" when major league acquisitions are discussed.

But BP could well have good years ahead.

[Kingspoint]

Why is it a given that Phillips output will dwindle? He's 32, he isn't old by today's standards. He didn't do that well last season, but many think it was injury related.

His contract is not a plus right now, but I don't think it's because of his play.

I think BP's contract is problematic because the Reds apparently are back to the "small market spending" days of minor league free agents and "no, no, no" when major league acquisitions are discussed.

But BP could well have good years ahead.

He's not a steroids user.

He's 32. He's been past his prime for a while. His output has already been on the downswing, a very large downswing. His OPS last season (.706) was 50 points less than the season before (.750) which was 50 points less than the season before that (.810)

Human physics dictates that he must regress.

But, with all great players, and Phillips certainly has been one of those during his career, he'll have one more really good season before his career ends. This "really good" season, which is usually a spike of about 80-100 OPS from the previous season, usually occurs about five years after the peak of his career (2011). So, in 2015 or 2016, Brandon will have one last really good season, and then have a huge dip the following year. There are exceptions, but this is the norm for most players who don't do steroids.

I can't see Brandon taking another dip in OPS this season beyond the .706 he finished with last year. I thought he played hurt a lot and it cost him production. I see him rebounding to around .735-.750, more similar to his 2012 season. If he hits in front of Votto, he should see more fastballs, and this should help. If anything, Phillips has always been a smart player and will get the most out of the health he is given this season.

I see another good season from him. If they can't move his contract this year, I don't see how they can move it in the future.

Injuries happen to contending teams, and between now and the trade deadline, a team may lose it's 2nd Baseman and be more willing to take on Phillips' contract than they are right now.

We'll see.

[Kc61]

The REDS are stuck with Brandon and his dwindling output for the remainder of the contract. Nobody on redszone sees more value in Brandon Phillips than I do, as I value Defense more than any body here....there is no close second. But, I'm not going to try and deny the huge loss of Offensive output that's going to occur from here on out over the next four seasons at a cost of $50M and Brandon holding a no-trade clause for up to ten clubs.

Why is it a given that Phillips output will dwindle? He's 32, he isn't old by today's standards. He didn't do that well last season, but many think it was injury related.

His contract is not a plus right now, but I don't think it's because of his play.

I think BP's contract is problematic because the Reds apparently are back to the "small market spending" days of minor league free agents and "no, no, no" when major league acquisitions are discussed.

But BP could well have good years ahead.

[Superdude]

He's not a steroids user.

He's 32. He's been past his prime for a while. His output has already been on the downswing, a very large downswing. His OPS last season (.706) was 50 points less than the season before (.750) which was 50 points less than the season before that (.810)

Human physics dictates that he must regress.

career year --> typical BP year --> injury riddled season. To say he's on a rapid age related decline is ignoring some important facts.

[_Sir_Charles_]

career year --> typical BP year --> injury riddled season. To say he's on a rapid age related decline is ignoring some important facts.

Spot on. If he's healthy this year, yes...I know...that's a big "if", I fully expect to see him bounce back to a typical BP year. That coupled with his defense is worth what he's being paid IMO.