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Thread: 2014 Plan.....Now....

  1. #16
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    I'm not sold on Hamilton being consistently productive at all. He couldn't bat for leadoff avg in AAA, and all he has is speed at the moment. I do wonder how quick Ervin could move up this year through the minors, and maybe even have a MLB debut late in the year. Is he our true CF for the future....

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  3. #17
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Hamilton might start in CF, but he could end up back in the infield before it over with. If the Reds trade Phillips, or if Cozart can't start hitting, I see it maybe happening.

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    Hamilton might start in CF, but he could end up back in the infield before it over with. If the Reds trade Phillips, or if Cozart can't start hitting, I see it maybe happening.
    If he can't get on base at more than a .300 clip he might end up back in AAA.

  5. #19
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by ac084c View Post
    If he can't get on base at more than a .300 clip he might end up back in AAA.
    I think this is the more likely scenario for him.

  6. #20
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Damn there is a lot of Hamilton haters here. Do you realize how fast he rose through the minor leagues? Do you realize last year he was still learning a new position? Cut the guy some slack, he's so fast he could steal the batter's circle.

  7. #21
    Grouch ac084c's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    Damn there is a lot of Hamilton haters here. Do you realize how fast he rose through the minor leagues? Do you realize last year he was still learning a new position? Cut the guy some slack, he's so fast he could steal the batter's circle.
    You act like he did it at record pace. He's 23, not 19.

    Noone is hating on him. But coming off a AAA debut where he had an OBP barely above .300 leaves one with more question marks than confidence - at least for me it does.

  8. #22
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by ac084c View Post
    You act like he did it at record pace. He's 23, not 19.

    Noone is hating on him. But coming off a AAA debut where he had an OBP barely above .300 leaves one with more question marks than confidence - at least for me it does.
    23...that's like a guy graduating college and having two years of minor league experience. That's still pretty fast. But Hamilton has spent 3 and half years in the minors and some time in the majors.

    If you look at Hamilton's stats, I don't see where they are so bad that people should be worried.

    http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=571740

    In 2012 he has a .412 OBP with 155 stolen bases.

  9. #23
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    23...that's like a guy graduating college and having two years of minor league experience. That's still pretty fast. But Hamilton has spent 3 and half years in the minors and some time in the majors.

    If you look at Hamilton's stats, I don't see where they are so bad that people should be worried.

    http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=571740

    In 2012 he has a .412 OBP with 155 stolen bases.
    2012 was A+ and AA. Each new level is an opportunity to hit the wall and it happened for Hamilton in the jump from AA to AAA. I just don't understand making another jump before he shows he's capable of the one he failed at. Handing him CF is a move that rebuilding teams do. Contending teams put production out there or at least a minor leaguer who looks to be ready with little left to prove at the levels below. Hamilton doesn't qualify. I don't care how fast he is unless he's going to have the same role in 2014 that he had in the majors in 2013. Let somebody else do the heavy lifting by getting on base and he comes in to PR. Otherwise, AAA until he shows he's capable. If he's going to make a bunch of outs, I'd rather it be in the AAA line-up where it doesn't hurt the reds.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #24
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I just don't understand making another jump before he shows he's capable of the one he failed at. .
    I know that you do understand it. You just don't agree with it. But it's not a crazy idea in this case.

    The rationale is that Hamilton's speed is a declining asset. Put it in the majors now while it is peak.

    Letting Billy steal another 80 minor league bases is just a waste of his abilities.

    His defense seems ok already, more than MLB ready.

    So the Reds are right now working on his hitting. Undoubtedly he's being taught to hit more grounders, bunt more, slap the ball around more.

    Ideally he'd have lots more time to develop in the minors. But speed declines.

    That's why the Reds should be doing all they can to add another good outfielder who can limit Billy's at bats, and also sub for Ludwick. As protection against overuse of both players.

    That's the reasoning. Maybe it will work, maybe not.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-21-2014 at 12:46 PM.

  11. #25
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I know that you do understand it. You just don't agree with it. But it's not a crazy idea in this case.

    The rationale is that Hamilton's speed is a declining asset. Put it in the majors now while it is peak.

    Letting Billy steal another 80 minor league bases is just a waste of his abilities.

    His defense seems ok already, more than MLB ready.

    So the Reds are right now working on his hitting. Undoubtedly he's being taught to hit more grounders, bunt more, slap the ball around more.

    Ideally he'd have lots more time to develop in the minors. But speed declines.

    That's why the Reds should be doing all they can to add another good outfielder who can limit Billy's at bats, and also sub for Ludwick. As protection against overuse of both players.

    That's the reasoning. Maybe it will work, maybe not.
    The last time I checked, Major League Baseball was not a developmental league... unless you're the Marlins or Cubs or [insert another 5th place team here].

    Yes speed declines, but it's not going to drastically decline from age 23 to age 24 (barring injury).

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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    I'm on board with the low risk signing of Sizemore....let Sizemore, Heisey, and Hamilton get starts in CF, with Spring Training determine the starter, the other 2 can sub in for Ludwick. But I think we'll find that the management will see and decide that Hamilton needs regular at bats in AAA for a couple of months to work on his hitting, or just getting on base more. Speed does nothing in the dugout.

  13. #27
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Im not 100% confident in BH making an increase in his OBP next season, but i won't rule it out. Especially if he can become a more consistent bunter i like his odds. Also he did score 84 runs last season with that horrid OBP. If he can just get over the .320 mark he could be quite the asset. Certainly a big if though.

    I wish the Reds had more CF options, but as it stands giving BH the job until he proves he cant do it this year is the Reds best option.

    I love the idea of Sizemore, but i have to say as an everyday player i trust BH more than sizemore. I hope walt brings him in, but i would have my eyes peeled for a plan C this spring. The question mark in CF could be the difference in postseason baseball for Cincinnati.

  14. #28
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I know that you do understand it. You just don't agree with it. But it's not a crazy idea in this case.

    The rationale is that Hamilton's speed is a declining asset. Put it in the majors now while it is peak.

    Letting Billy steal another 80 minor league bases is just a waste of his abilities.

    His defense seems ok already, more than MLB ready.

    So the Reds are right now working on his hitting. Undoubtedly he's being taught to hit more grounders, bunt more, slap the ball around more.

    Ideally he'd have lots more time to develop in the minors. But speed declines.

    That's why the Reds should be doing all they can to add another good outfielder who can limit Billy's at bats, and also sub for Ludwick. As protection against overuse of both players.

    That's the reasoning. Maybe it will work, maybe not.
    He's 23. If he's the second coming, the Reds will only be able to afford him until he's 29. The speed will still be there. If he crashes and burns, getting all they can from his speed won't matter. The sense of urgency strikes me as artificial. It's about him being a guy to plug in for the minimum and nothing else IMO. It's a non-contender type move.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-21-2014 at 01:53 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #29
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by ac084c View Post
    The last time I checked, Major League Baseball was not a developmental league... unless you're the Marlins or Cubs or [insert another 5th place team here].

    Yes speed declines, but it's not going to drastically decline from age 23 to age 24 (barring injury).
    The point is, though, that the Reds have Hamilton under control and at peak speed for a limited number of years. They will want to use all of those years, or as many as possible, in the majors.

    In Hamilton's case, his early years are perhaps the most important years because of the speed factor. They'd rather he be a Red at age 23-28, as opposed to, say, 24-29, or 25-30.

    This is different than players with other skill sets.

    And while it's not a developmental league, BH has already played a full AAA season. They are not promoting him from A ball.

    While his OBP wasn't too good, the Reds can reasonably feel that it's time to face MLB pitching; work with the MLB staff to improve; give the team good defense; and pinch run when not starting.

    I think it's a reasonable call on their part. Would prefer if they had more outfield depth to support him, though.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-21-2014 at 02:24 PM.

  16. #30
    Member Wishbone C's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    So if nobody hits and they struggle to stay at .500, how long into the season do you wait? The problem with waiting is that there is very little available until the All Star break. If this roster struggles for 90 to 100 games before a move presents itself, it may be too late. I think punting 60% of the season is irresponsible. A loss in May counts the same as a loss in September. There are three regular players who aren't question marks (and one of those, Zach Cozart, is a guy who won't be a plus for the offense). Hoping for so many questions to be answered positively isn't a plan. The team needs a known quantity for some of it's questionable spots.

    I've got no problem moving forward with Frazier. He's probably worth his spot even if he only repeats 2013. The Reds are stuck with Phillips and his awful contract. Hoping that his awful 2013 is more about his injury than the fact that his prime years are in the rearview mirror is really all they can do without a major restructuring. But counting on a 35 year old Ludwick coming off of injury, a guy in CF who failed in AAA and a guy behind the plate who had an OPS below .600 against RHP 2 years in a row is inexcusable. At least one of those spots needed to be solidified with somebody with more established production. The fact that they've addressed those positions with Skippy, Brayan Pena and possibly the corpse of Grady Sizemore as alternatives to the in house question marks seems like a lot more hoping to me. I get the upside. Hoping Ludwick recaptures 2012 and hoping Mesoraco and Hamilton fulfill their prospect promise all make some sense individually, but collectively those hopes coupled with the hopes involving Frazier and Phillips is just too much uncertainty for me. A player or two with established ability to contribute to the offense isn't a luxury, but a necessity that this team ignored. Not looking for All Stars, but some proven production is needed. I get the suggestion to wait so that trade pieces aren't wasted on a spot where the incumbent provides a positive answer, but waiting is risky and could sink the season if all the questions are answered negatively. I don't like the team gambling with the season like that.
    It seems we both agree we need more hitting, but I think where we differ is on baseline. You seem to be of the mind the Reds could possibly struggle to stay close to .500. I'm of the mind that isn't even a remote possibility barring a major rash of injuries. Our pitching staff alone will prevent that & we do have some pretty good offense to go with it.

    But I think most of us would like to see an impact RHB added. I also think you may be overstating Hamilton's OBP woes. The Reds are working with him on bunting probably as we speak. Some dismiss this as trivial or insignificant & in most cases it would be. But Hamilton has game breaking speed & a successful bunt is essentially a double so it's far from insignificant.

    A big reason I'm iffy on making a move right now is the general assumption is it should be for a CF with OBP skills. But most impact bats with power are corners. If Hamilton can hold his own or even thrive but Ludwick struggles then that would change where we need the bat from CF to LF & really open up our options as far as adding a bat with power versus the assumed OBP with little to no power bat that comes with most CF's.

    We do have Heisy who can play both spots but in my mind Ludwick with his age & medicals is as big a question mark as Hamilton. So I think it would be beneficial to let the season get under way to get a better understanding of just where we need the bat. If it turns out Hamilton holds his own or even thrives but Ludwick struggles then we may be looking at adding a corner OF with some HR power to go with that coveted OBP.


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