Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 70

Thread: 2014 Plan.....Now....

Hybrid View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    725

    2014 Plan.....Now....

    Ok, we are coming up on Spring Training within a month, in the heart of arbitration cases now, and little to no movement in trades or free agency I believe we are right around 80 million right now, with a project 20-26 million more after arb deals are done. With this weeks articles coming out about Walt possibly feeling good about a Homer extension, assuming he is using money that was available for a Choo signing if Choo opted to come back here. It appears that Big Bob has room to go 110-120 million in payroll, I have to think this is because of the new tv deal kicking in.....

    I'm going to try and stick with guys/news we've actually been connected to from Twitter, MLBtraderumors, Fay, Ctrent, etc, particularly with the 2014 plan.

    Here is Cots Contracts for Reds link for reference:
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...ncinnati-reds/

    2014 before season
    1. Sign Homer 7 years, with opt out at 5 year for 15/105, front loaded in first few years.

    2. Sign Grady Sizemore to minor league deal for CF try out, not sure if he makes team for opening day if that deal has to be restructured for major league deal with incentives.

    -I don't see a deal for BP, or a signing of Arroyo now, unless Bailey doesn't sign long term, they may settle on 1 year with him, sign Arroyo, which may open up room to try and trade Cueto.

    -Is Cuetos contract still cheap enough, and he still good enough to be used partnered up with BP to get a LF with RH power back. Would the Bluejays be interested in this deal for Bautista?

    2014 Deadline If Competitve
    1. Find a way to trade off either Marshall or Broxton, to free up some of that bullpen salary. Trade deadline period is the best time to try and shop one of them off......

    2. Need to free up some cash to sign Latos next offseason with a backloaded contract to not run consecutively with Bailey.

    Hope for production from Frazier, Cozart, and Mesoraco to step up. I liked Cozart and Mesoracos production in the latter half of the season. Hope for a new Sizemore to play most of season while Billy still gains some more experience.

  2. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    540

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsville View Post
    2014 before season
    1. Sign Homer 7 years, with opt out at 5 year for 15/105, front loaded in first few years.
    I'm sure the Reds would jump all over that.... but I'm not convinced that Homer would. They're going to have to at least match/best what Arroyo received last year. Given that Homer has front of the rotation potential and those guys have been getting 20'ish.... I'm going to say that number is way off.

  3. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    725

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Yeah, multiple factors can come into signing extension with a current team, like Bruce, Cueto, Votto did. Does Homer like the city/area, does he just care about the $ vs being a competitive team, etc.

    In addition, I wish we could get a chart for professional players signing these deals that would show us, if you make 15 mil a year for 5 years in Cincy what is the comparable $ amount say in a place like Dallas? I know Texas has the advantage of no income taxes, but cost of living is more. If you do a comparison of those 2 cities, making 500k in Cincy, the formula says you should make 525k in Dallas. But not sure if that is an apples to apples comparison for the way pro players contracts would be structured.

    If you front load Homers deal of 20 mil first 3 years, can we afford that and sign Latos. I feel like Bruce, Votto, Cueto all signed on to reasonable dollar amounts for the city/area they live in. Probably could have made a fair amount more if a free agent, is Homer "cut" like that too as an original Reds draftee, we'll see.

  4. #4
    Member Wishbone C's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Lexington, Kentucky
    Posts
    24

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    I think if I'm Walt I like what I have & I'm going to stand pat for a couple of months to see how things shake out. That is barring a trade opportunity that's too good to pass up.

    This team, assuming health, should be good enough to stay within striking distance. I'm going to wait & make sure everyone stays healthy & performs at a playoff level. In the meantime along with evaluating my own team I'm looking around for other possible player's & deals.

    Heading into July we should be in the mix, if so I'm checking out player's that are hot & being made available from teams that are out of contention. This is when I would look to make my move.

    I'm looking at the Reds & see who is performing well, who's having a career year & who isn't performing up to snuff. Then before the trade deadline I make my move to plug in the holes.

    This gives the GM the best opportunity to make an informed decision. If you trade for a player right now just because you think he's good doesn't necessarily mean he'll help much this year. The player could get hurt in spring training or have a down year.

    Waiting till summer allows you the benefit of making sure your getting someone who is putting up good numbers NOW. This is the safest play for a small - mid market team & the one I'd be looking to make.

    The team doesn't have to be World Series caliber in April. It just needs to be good enough to be in the mix. We already have that now so I wouldn't feel pressed to make a move this early unless something too good to pass up came along.

    Besides if your just renting a player for the stretch drive it's cheaper to pick them up in June - July as you won't be responsible for the whole years salary.

    Just keep us in the race till summer then we'll pick up the pieces we need. If you have that mindset (and I believe Walt does) then we're sitting pretty right now.

  5. Likes:

    Drugs Delaney (01-21-2014)

  6. #5
    Member mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    32,039

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Wishbone C View Post
    I think if I'm Walt I like what I have & I'm going to stand pat for a couple of months to see how things shake out. That is barring a trade opportunity that's too good to pass up.

    This team, assuming health, should be good enough to stay within striking distance. I'm going to wait & make sure everyone stays healthy & performs at a playoff level. In the meantime along with evaluating my own team I'm looking around for other possible player's & deals.

    Heading into July we should be in the mix, if so I'm checking out player's that are hot & being made available from teams that are out of contention. This is when I would look to make my move.

    I'm looking at the Reds & see who is performing well, who's having a career year & who isn't performing up to snuff. Then before the trade deadline I make my move to plug in the holes.

    This gives the GM the best opportunity to make an informed decision. If you trade for a player right now just because you think he's good doesn't necessarily mean he'll help much this year. The player could get hurt in spring training or have a down year.

    Waiting till summer allows you the benefit of making sure your getting someone who is putting up good numbers NOW. This is the safest play for a small - mid market team & the one I'd be looking to make.

    The team doesn't have to be World Series caliber in April. It just needs to be good enough to be in the mix. We already have that now so I wouldn't feel pressed to make a move this early unless something too good to pass up came along.

    Besides if your just renting a player for the stretch drive it's cheaper to pick them up in June - July as you won't be responsible for the whole years salary.

    Just keep us in the race till summer then we'll pick up the pieces we need. If you have that mindset (and I believe Walt does) then we're sitting pretty right now.
    Waiting also means playing 60% of the schedule with the 7 auto outs in the line-up that they have now. By late July, they may be looking to deal guys off instead of adding if they play with these guys all year.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  7. Likes:

    ukwazoo (02-08-2014)

  8. #6
    Member Wishbone C's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Lexington, Kentucky
    Posts
    24

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Waiting also means playing 60% of the schedule with the 7 auto outs in the line-up that they have now. By late July, they may be looking to deal guys off instead of adding if they play with these guys all year.
    You mean essentially the same "7 auto outs" that have won 357 games over the last 4 years on their way to 3 playoffs & 2 division titles?

    I wouldn't bet any money on it.

  9. Likes:

    JMac84 (01-20-2014)

  10. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    108

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Wishbone C View Post
    You mean essentially the same "7 auto outs" that have won 357 games over the last 4 years on their way to 3 playoffs & 2 division titles?

    I wouldn't bet any money on it.
    Yeah for auto outs these guys are pretty good players. I agree there Is a lot of room for improvement in the Reds lineup, but lets not act like these guys are total bums.

  11. Likes:

    Wishbone C (01-20-2014)

  12. #8
    Member mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    32,039

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Wishbone C View Post
    You mean essentially the same "7 auto outs" that have won 357 games over the last 4 years on their way to 3 playoffs & 2 division titles?

    I wouldn't bet any money on it.
    None of those were won with a guy who failed at AAA playing CF every day and none were done with a guy who's failed as a part timer behind the plate for two years running getting the every day job. Only last year was with Phillips descending into his decline phase, a journey I expect to get deeper in 2014. The Phillips from earlier in his career isn't the guy that will be out there from here on out IMO. The league has adjusted to Todd Frazier and I'd expect the "swing at a ball a foot outside" Frazier from 2013 more than the stud from 2012. Ludwick is 36 by mid-season and coming off of a major injury that threatens his most useful tool - his pop. Cozart isn't even a question. He's a defensive minded SS, who is passable given his occasional power, but he fits better as a bottom of the order out than as a guy who helps the offense.

    The Reds have never really played with this group of players. I'm sure some of these questions will go the Reds way, but this roster needs 75% or more of these things to go right for this offense to be competitive. I just don't see it happening. Votto and Bruce will be good. The other 7 line-up spots are likely to be real ugly.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  13. #9
    Member Wishbone C's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Lexington, Kentucky
    Posts
    24

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    None of those were won with a guy who failed at AAA playing CF every day and none were done with a guy who's failed as a part timer behind the plate for two years running getting the every day job. Only last year was with Phillips descending into his decline phase, a journey I expect to get deeper in 2014. The Phillips from earlier in his career isn't the guy that will be out there from here on out IMO. The league has adjusted to Todd Frazier and I'd expect the "swing at a ball a foot outside" Frazier from 2013 more than the stud from 2012. Ludwick is 36 by mid-season and coming off of a major injury that threatens his most useful tool - his pop. Cozart isn't even a question. He's a defensive minded SS, who is passable given his occasional power, but he fits better as a bottom of the order out than as a guy who helps the offense.

    The Reds have never really played with this group of players. I'm sure some of these questions will go the Reds way, but this roster needs 75% or more of these things to go right for this offense to be competitive. I just don't see it happening. Votto and Bruce will be good. The other 7 line-up spots are likely to be real ugly.
    Hamilton is a wild card. He may struggle mightily. He also may be a lightning rod for the offense. A successful bunt is more or less a double with him. So there is some uncertainty with him but I am certain he will bring elite defense with him.

    Meso could end up in a platoon. But that platoon offensively will be better than what we had last year. Or Meso might nail down the starting spot if he can hit RHP. Either way it's an offensive upgrade.

    Cozart is fine. Offensively he produces decent numbers for his position.

    Frazier I expect to bounce back from a down year. Cueto is healthy. Chapman to get ALOT more innings and Price-Bell & the rest of the new staff to have an immediate impact.

    Plus I believe Walt will pick up a RHB sometime before the trade deadline. Sooner than later if Ludwick falters.

    Personally, I'm looking forward to the 2014 playoffs. I gotta a good feeling.

  14. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    1,193

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    I think Bailey will get the same 5/7 deal as Kershaw which allows him to become a free agent at 32 giving him the chance to sign a 2nd contract at that time.

    I am think he will get right around 17 to 19 million a year on his first contract which is 85 to 95 million.

    His 2nd contract will more than likely be a 7 year deal in the 140 million range, he will be 39 at the end of this contract, meaning he has timed his free agency perfectly. Put the two contracts together and he will get around $230 million.

    The only for thing for him is to stay healthy during his first contract.

    I think the Reds are looking at around $80 million a year on their new TV deal. Based upon the Cleveland deal last year and the Philly deal this year. The Reds are not in the Dodgers area $200 million a year when it comes to that type of TV money.
    Last edited by bellhead; 01-19-2014 at 11:48 AM.

  15. #11
    Member Lewdog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Williamsburg, Ky
    Posts
    361

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    I would never, and I mean never, give a pitcher a 7 year contract. They are always just one pitch away from Tommy John surgery and missing a year and half. Also with pitchers, there usually isn't a gradual drop off in production. When they lose it, they fall off a cliff. Just a couple years ago Roy Halladay was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, now he is retired.

    Three to four years is all the Reds need with Bailey, then they have to plan on replacing him with someone younger and cheaper.

    Baker didn't want Hamilton to play yet, Baker is gone, and the front office wants to see what Hamilton can do. Expect it.

  16. #12
    Member Lewdog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Williamsburg, Ky
    Posts
    361

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    The Reds are going to do what they almost do in the every offseason. They sign a young guy or two that has been cut from another teams 40 man roster, then they give camp invites to a few older guys that are just trying to latch onto a team, and once training camp gets under way they will sign a veteran or two that might fill some holes. It's like a broken record but I've seen it happen so many times.

  17. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    725

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    I'm not sold on Hamilton being consistently productive at all. He couldn't bat for leadoff avg in AAA, and all he has is speed at the moment. I do wonder how quick Ervin could move up this year through the minors, and maybe even have a MLB debut late in the year. Is he our true CF for the future....

  18. #14
    Member Lewdog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Williamsburg, Ky
    Posts
    361

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Hamilton might start in CF, but he could end up back in the infield before it over with. If the Reds trade Phillips, or if Cozart can't start hitting, I see it maybe happening.

  19. #15
    Grouch ac084c's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    St. Louis, MO
    Posts
    1,727

    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    Hamilton might start in CF, but he could end up back in the infield before it over with. If the Reds trade Phillips, or if Cozart can't start hitting, I see it maybe happening.
    If he can't get on base at more than a .300 clip he might end up back in AAA.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator