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Thread: 2014 Plan.....Now....

  1. #31
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Wishbone C View Post
    It seems we both agree we need more hitting, but I think where we differ is on baseline. You seem to be of the mind the Reds could possibly struggle to stay close to .500. I'm of the mind that isn't even a remote possibility barring a major rash of injuries. Our pitching staff alone will prevent that & we do have some pretty good offense to go with it.

    But I think most of us would like to see an impact RHB added. I also think you may be overstating Hamilton's OBP woes. The Reds are working with him on bunting probably as we speak. Some dismiss this as trivial or insignificant & in most cases it would be. But Hamilton has game breaking speed & a successful bunt is essentially a double so it's far from insignificant.

    A big reason I'm iffy on making a move right now is the general assumption is it should be for a CF with OBP skills. But most impact bats with power are corners. If Hamilton can hold his own or even thrive but Ludwick struggles then that would change where we need the bat from CF to LF & really open up our options as far as adding a bat with power versus the assumed OBP with little to no power bat that comes with most CF's.

    We do have Heisy who can play both spots but in my mind Ludwick with his age & medicals is as big a question mark as Hamilton. So I think it would be beneficial to let the season get under way to get a better understanding of just where we need the bat. If it turns out Hamilton holds his own or even thrives but Ludwick struggles then we may be looking at adding a corner OF with some HR power to go with that coveted OBP.
    I get it. IMO, where they screwed the pooch was at Catcher. Mes has had plenty of chances IMO. He's a lefty killer with iffy defense IMO. He might be more. I even think he will be at some point, but I don't gamble the 2014 season that it's now. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, AJ Pierzinski and Dioner Navarro are all three guys with weird names and lefty bats that toast RHP and were out there in the Reds' price range. The Reds should have nabbed one and made that spot a middle of the order platoon that would reduce the reliance on Ludwick. Instead we get AAAA Brayan Pena for more money than Hanigan made in 2013.

    As for CF vs LF. I think to upgrade 150 OPS points from Ludwick, you'll need a guy in the .875 range. That's expensive and hard to acquire. I think the same upgrade from Hamilton would be a .725 OPS guy (yep, I think Billy will struggle to OPS .600 if you're doing the math).. Those have been out there and wouldn't have cost a ton in talent or money to add it. If Hamilton gets it together, that type of player wouldn't be a waste of budget or talent sitting as a reserve, or worst case, get's dealt again to recoup the talent expended to acquire him.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #32
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Again, you can't forget last September. Hamilton had an impact. Don't see the advantage of having that in the minors.

    The idea IMO should be to have Ludwick start 100 games. Hamilton start 100 games. And a third, solid hitting outfielder start 100 games. Give or take. That covers two positions, CF and LF.

    The other games, Hamilton can pinch run. You spot him against the pitchers he is likely to hit better. Ludwick needs lots of rest, he needed it before his injury.

    Unfortunately, that third CF-LF outfielder is not on the club IMO. Heisey isn't a 100 game starter IMO. So this plan hasn't yet been implemented.

    But Hamilton, if used correctly, can contribute quite a bit. Not necessarily measured in typical OPS component stats alone.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-21-2014 at 03:17 PM.

  4. #33
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Again, you can't forget last September. Hamilton had an impact. Don't see the advantage of having that in the minors.

    The idea IMO should be to have Ludwick start 100 games. Hamilton start 100 games. And a third, solid hitting outfielder start 100 games. Give or take. That covers two positions, CF and LF.

    The other games, Hamilton can pinch run. You spot him against the pitchers he is likely to hit better. Ludwick needs lots of rest, he needed it before his injury.

    Unfortunately, that third CF-LF outfielder is not on the club IMO. Heisey isn't a 100 game starter IMO. So this plan hasn't yet been implemented.

    But Hamilton, if used correctly, can contribute quite a bit. Not necessarily measured in typical OPS component stats alone.
    But that impact was as a pinch runner. He didn't have the responsibility of getting on base in the first place. Want him on the roster as the 25th man who pinch runs for other players late in the game? I'm all in. Want him leading off and making outs 70+% of the time and adding a few more when he inevitably gets thrown out on occasion? Sorry, even if he attempts 100 steals at an 80% success rate, it just doesn't really add much value without getting on base or adding extra base hits.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-21-2014 at 04:19 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #34
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    But that impact was as a pinch runner. He didn't have the responsibility of getting on base in the first place. Want him on the roster as the 25th man who pinch runs for other players late in the game? I'm all in. Want him leading off and making puts 70+% of the time and adding a few more when he inevitably gets thrown out on occasion? Sorry, even if he attempts 100 steals at an 80% success rate, it just doesn't really add much value without getting on base or adding extra base hits.
    You're missing the point. He does more than that. When he is on base it puts more pressure on the pitcher and catcher. The pitcher all of a sudden has his attention redirected and it makes it more likely he hangs a pitch for guys like Votto or Phillips. There is so much more to account for than you are giving Hamilton credit for.

  6. #35
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    You're missing the point. He does more than that. When he is on base it puts more pressure on the pitcher and catcher. The pitcher all of a sudden has his attention redirected and it makes it more likely he hangs a pitch for guys like Votto or Phillips. There is so much more to account for than you are giving Hamilton credit for.
    I'm not missing that point. I just am not swayed by it. Where is the evidence that he had this impact on his team in AAA? Not really any guys with good years down there in 2013. I'd have expected H-Rod and Neftali Soto to blow-up last season if Hamilton really had that kind of impact.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  7. #36
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    You're missing the point. He does more than that. When he is on base it puts more pressure on the pitcher and catcher. The pitcher all of a sudden has his attention redirected and it makes it more likely he hangs a pitch for guys like Votto or Phillips. There is so much more to account for than you are giving Hamilton credit for.
    I also think that as sophisticated baseball fans sometimes we have to look beyond last season's minor league stats. I wonder sometimes whether the purpose of player development is to develop, or to get the player to have one year of good stats for his resume.

    Hamilton -- who had excellent OBP stats at four levels -- has all the factors to be a good OBP hitter. A simple grounder can easily be a hit. A bunt too. He needs to put the ball in play, avoid pop ups, and he should be a solid OBP man.

    It would provide fans with more comfort if BH had a .370 OBP in AAA. But I'm willing to give him a shot without that. Let him get 400 PAs plus pinch run and see how he does. Let the coaches work him real hard on his approach.

    I see no more risk in playing BH than I do playing several other Reds whose chance for success lies in big turnarounds this coming year.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-21-2014 at 04:31 PM.

  8. #37
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I also think that as sophisticated baseball fans sometimes we have to look beyond last season's minor league stats. I wonder sometimes whether the purpose of player development is to develop, or to cash in on one year's stats.

    Hamilton -- who had excellent OBP stats at four levels -- has all the factors to be a good OBP hitter. A simple grounder can easily be a hit. A bunt too. He needs to put the ball in play, avoid pop ups, and he should be a solid OBP man.

    It would provide fans with more comfort if BH had a .370 OBP in AAA. But I'm willing to give him a shot without that. Let him get 400 PAs plus pinch run and see how he does. Let the coaches work him real hard on his approach.

    I see no more risk in playing BH than I do expecting all these turnarounds fans are expecting from several of the Reds' current players.
    I agree with your last paragraph. That simply compounds the issue IMO. Knowing there are questions elsewhere, it would seem to make it a necessity to make sure any kid breaking in has passed all his exams (Billy with a big F at AAA IMO). I'd be fine with Hamilton if Phillips and Ludwick were 5 years younger, Mesoraco had already fulfilled his promise or Frazier didn't look so awful against RHP. The only reason I can see forcing Hamilton into the cesspool is that he'll make the minimum. I get not signing Choo. I've been the one cautioning about the payroll all winter, but there were reasonable courses of action, if not in CF, then in one of those other spots.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #38
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Hamilton showed in the few games he was in the pros last year how much of impact him being on base is on the pitcher.

  10. #39
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Issue is really academic at this point. Right now the Reds have few options. Let's see if they come up with another good outfielder, like a healthy Sizemore might be, and how they take it from there.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-21-2014 at 04:54 PM.

  11. #40
    Torty ac084c's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    Hamilton showed in the few games he was in the pros last year how much of impact him being on base is on the pitcher.
    Few games is key. You're comfortable based on a 13-game sample size that he is the answer?

  12. #41
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by ac084c View Post
    Few games is key. You're comfortable based on a 13-game sample size that he is the answer?

    Every journey begins with just a few steps no? Cal Ripken could never have played in 2,632 straight games unless he played in the first 13 right?

  13. #42
    Torty ac084c's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    Every journey begins with just a few steps no? Cal Ripken could never have played in 2,632 straight games unless he played in the first 13 right?
    Cal Ripken slashed .288/.383/.535 in 507 PA in AAA Rochester in 1981 prior to his major league debut that year.

    I'm not sure you've got much of a valid comparison there.

  14. #43
    Torty ac084c's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    Every journey begins with just a few steps no? Cal Ripken could never have played in 2,632 straight games unless he played in the first 13 right?
    In fact, if you want a fair comparison, based on skillset (prolific base stealer), let's compare him to Rickey Henderson.

    Henderson slashed a modest .309/.430/.448 in 328 PA in AAA Ogden in 1979 before making his debut.

  15. #44
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by ac084c View Post
    Few games is key. You're comfortable based on a 13-game sample size that he is the answer?
    Quote Originally Posted by ac084c View Post
    Cal Ripken slashed .288/.383/.535 in 507 PA in AAA Rochester in 1981 prior to his major league debut that year.

    I'm not sure you've got much of a valid comparison there.
    What do AAA stats have to do with what I said? The point is, you never know what might happen.

    Brien Taylor was a "can't miss" prospect and we see how that worked out.

    You can't just wait until a guy is absolutely raking it in the minors all the time in order to bring them up. Heck there are a lot of the times when veteran guys rehab in the minors and can't hit worth crap. Sometimes you just got to let a guy sink or swim.

  16. #45
    Torty ac084c's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Plan.....Now....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewdog View Post
    What do AAA stats have to do with what I said? The point is, you never know what might happen.

    Brien Taylor was a "can't miss" prospect and we see how that worked out.

    You can't just wait until a guy is absolutely raking it in the minors all the time in order to bring them up. Heck there are a lot of the times when veteran guys rehab in the minors and can't hit worth crap. Sometimes you just got to let a guy sink or swim.
    That last statement is the philosophy of a 5th place team. Not a perennial contender. Which is the point that mth is trying to make.

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