Sorting out the Upper Level Rotations

[mth123]

As best as I can tell, the Reds have 16 guys for 10 rotation spots in AA and AAA. Looking at the guys, I'm guessing Schmidt and Dennhardt will be in a bullpen somewhere. Holmberg, Corcino and Rogers would seem to be locks at AAA and Stephenson and Moscot locks at AA. I'm not sure whether Francis and Wang will stick around if they don't make the big league team and I'm unsure whether Contreras will continue starting. Tim Crabbe looks like a guy who may step forward in the bullpen, but I'm not sure if that's the plan. Mikey O'Brien is interesting. He had decent numbers at AA and he was only 23 last year, but the Yankees let him go. I think he could be a find. Josh Smith and Daniel Renken have been solid starters, but the Reds leaving them off the 40 man (and no team taking a rule 5 shot) speaks volumes. Shane Dyer and Ryan Dennick would seem to be decent choices to get another look. Not sure how it sorts out really. Anybody with any knowledge want to weigh in? (These are minor league numbers only, BTW).

Name	         Age	ERA	G	GS	IP	TBF	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	WP	SO	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	K%	BB%	BABIP
R. Stephenson	20	2.99	22	22	114.1	465	92	49	38	10	35	0	3	12	136	10.71	2.76	3.89	0.79	29.30%	7.50%	0.292
Jon Moscot	21	4.3	28	28	146.2	629	143	78	70	20	48	3	9	11	140	8.59	2.95	2.92	1.23	22.30%	7.60%	0.299
David Holmberg	21	2.75	26	26	157.1	651	138	59	48	12	50	2	7	3	116	6.64	2.86	2.32	0.69	17.80%	7.70%	0.27
C. Contreras	22	3.47	26	26	132.1	560	106	56	51	11	62	3	8	9	122	8.3	4.22	1.97	0.75	21.80%	11.10%	0.266
Daniel Corcino	22	5.86	28	23	129	594	141	95	84	17	73	0	11	7	90	6.28	5.09	1.23	1.19	15.20%	12.30%	0.308
Chad Rogers	23	2.99	34	25	153.2	623	123	60	51	15	49	2	5	4	115	6.74	2.87	2.35	0.88	18.50%	7.90%	0.246
Michael O'Brien	23	4.17	27	25	133.2	589	140	71	62	10	52	1	10	8	124	8.35	3.5	2.38	0.67	21.10%	8.80%	0.331
M. Dennhardt	23	4.92	27	13	82.1	368	99	54	45	9	24	1	4	5	70	7.65	2.62	2.92	0.98	19.00%	6.50%	0.345
Daniel Renken	23	3.99	27	24	142	605	129	70	63	13	60	0	5	3	117	7.42	3.8	1.95	0.82	19.30%	9.90%	0.283
Tim Crabbe	25	3.06	27	26	153	634	151	63	52	12	43	1	4	6	109	6.41	2.53	2.53	0.71	17.20%	6.80%	0.298
Josh Smith	25	3.26	28	28	160	674	148	65	58	16	50	2	7	5	139	7.82	2.81	2.78	0.9	20.60%	7.40%	0.286
Shane Dyer	25	3.45	18	18	107	456	108	55	41	10	20	0	16	5	84	7.07	1.68	4.2	0.84	18.40%	4.40%	0.301
Ryan Dennick	26	3.82	27	21	122.2	514	122	57	52	10	35	0	1	3	78	5.72	2.57	2.23	0.73	15.20%	6.80%	0.287
Nick Schmidt	27	4.71	37	8	91.2	410	107	52	48	10	38	0	1	9	72	7.07	3.73	1.89	0.98	17.60%	9.30%	0.336
Jeff Francis	32	4.34	11	6	37.1	167	42	24	18	1	9	0	2	1	33	7.96	2.17	3.67	0.24	19.80%	5.40%	0.336
Chien-Ming Wang	33	2.87	18	17	109.2	448	103	39	35	5	22	0	2	5	55	4.51	1.81	2.5	0.41	12.30%	4.90%	0.269

[camisadelgolf]

Did you forget about Trevor Reckling and Chad Reineke?

[mth123]

Did you forget about Trevor Reckling and Chad Reineke?

I didn't forget them, just ruled them out. Probably should have included them.

[camisadelgolf]

Here's my stab at it:
AAA
Francis
Wang
Holmberg
Rogers
Corcino

And that would make Reineke the swingman.

AA
Stephenson
Moscot
Contreras
Renken
O'Brien

Dyer would step in if the Reds start grooming Contreras for the closer role. Everyone else goes to the bullpen or gets released.

[texasdave]

Here's my stab at it:
AAA
Francis
Wang
Holmberg
Rogers
Corcino

And that would make Reineke the swingman.

AA
Stephenson
Moscot
Contreras
Renken
O'Brien

Dyer would step in if the Reds start grooming Contreras for the closer role. Everyone else goes to the bullpen or gets released.

I wonder what the effect of signing Brett Marshall will be? I would imagine he will likely be starting in AAA. Does Rogers go back to Pensacola? Does he go to the bullpen?

[camisadelgolf]

I wonder what the effect of signing Brett Marshall will be? I would imagine he will likely be starting in AAA. Does Rogers go back to Pensacola? Does he go to the bullpen?

Francis or Wang could opt out. If neither does, you can put Corcino in the bullpen if he's showing no signs of improvement, which would be a surprise, or hope the coaches in Pensacola can help him. But yeah, Rogers to the bullpen should be considered if the Reds see a better future for him there.

[Edd Roush]

I wonder what the effect of signing Brett Marshall will be? I would imagine he will likely be starting in AAA. Does Rogers go back to Pensacola? Does he go to the bullpen?

I can't see Rogers going back to Pensacola.

My guess is that if Wang and Francis do not opt out, Corcino will be moved to the bullpen. Corcino has been pitching out of the bullpen in Winter Leagues, and while that may be due to the Reds wanting to keep his innings down, Corcino did pitch 14+ more innings in 2012 than 2013.

Rogers had 12 starts in AAA last year and while they weren't great, they were much better than Corcino's.

I like having too many AAA quality arms, rather than not enough.

Louisville should have a pretty solid rotation next year. Let's hope it stays that way because the rotation in Cincinnati stays healthy as does the rotation in Louisville.

[OGB]

I wonder what the effect of signing Brett Marshall will be? I would imagine he will likely be starting in AAA. Does Rogers go back to Pensacola? Does he go to the bullpen?

I think Wang would most likely be gone. Like most I see him and Francis as mid year opt out guys if they perform well. If you have younger guys who are legit possibilities as future 4/5 starters or pen arms I dont think you hold them back for a 33 year old retread who likely is the 2nd or 3rd option after Holmberg and Francis.

[Edd Roush]

I think Wang would most likely be gone. Like most I see him and Francis as mid year opt out guys if they perform well. If you have younger guys who are legit possibilities as future 4/5 starters or pen arms I dont think you hold them back for a 33 year old retread who likely is the 2nd or 3rd option after Holmberg and Francis.

I do not support the notion of cutting Wang loose given his ability to give the major league team replacement level innings from Day 1. Couple this with the fact that Francis could opt out and the rest of the proposed AAA rotation has not had any decent success in AAA, let alone the minors, and there is no way I am pushing Wang out the door.

The Reds need depth. They got a little more of that by picking up Marshall. Letting Wang go does not help the Reds' depth in 2014.

[corkedbat]

I do not support the notion of cutting Wang loose given his ability to give the major league team replacement level innings from Day 1. Couple this with the fact that Francis could opt out and the rest of the proposed AAA rotation has not had any decent success in AAA, let alone the minors, and there is no way I am pushing Wang out the door.

The Reds need depth. They got a little more of that by picking up Marshall. Letting Wang go does not help the Reds' depth in 2014.

That may seem to be true on the face of it, but may not be in reality. If they don't think Wang is really that solid an option to help the big club in case of an injury, then it could help to let Wang go if he's taking innings that could go to a prospect and help accelerate their development. with the addition of Holmberg, O'Brien and Marshall the Res suddenly seem to have an abundance of good-to-middling starters in the upper reaches of the system.

[M2]

Doesn't O'Brien have to stay in AAA or higher because of Rule 5?

[Gallen5862]

Doesn't O'Brien have to stay in AAA or higher because of Rule 5?

Minor league Rule V players can be assigned to any level in the minors. The only restriction was that there had to be a AAA spot open when he was selected.

[M2]

Minor league Rule V players can be assigned to any level in the minors. The only restriction was that there had to be a AAA spot open when he was selected.

Thanks for the clarification.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ask-ba-2/

Ask BA: How Do The Minor League Phases Of The Rule 5 Draft Work?

In the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, teams may select any eligible player left off the major league 40-man roster or the Triple-A reserve roster of 38 players. In the Double-A phase of the draft, teams may select any eligible player left off the major league roster, the Triple-A reserve roster or the Double-A reserve roster of 37 players. In other words, a player selected in the Triple-A phase does not rank among his organization’s top 78 talents, and a Double-A selection does not rank among its top 115. In these cases, players are not required to remain on a particular roster. The player’s contract is irrevocably assigned to the drafting team and the drafting fee ($12,000 for Triple-A, $4,000 for Double-A) is paid.

[corkedbat]

Just my WAG

Louisville River Bats (AAA)

Chien-Mein Wang - guaranteed the spot unless they say no thanks we like the kids better and release him near the end of the Spring
Jeff Francis - guaranteed spot if he's a starter. Hasn't had much luck as a starter in the majors - always a need for bullpen lefties - wouldn't shock me to see them groom him a little for the pen in case of a big club injury
Daniel Corcino - may end up in the Reds pen at some point. Unless he's dealt though, I expect him in the Bats rotation
David Holmberg strong spring shows Reds knew what they were getting
Sharky Rogers - bottom of L'Ville rotation
Nick Schmidt & Chris Reineke - duel for the Bats swing spot
Trevor Reckling - lefty in Bats pen unless he's cut
Carlos Contreras - Bats Closer

Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Robert Stephenson - Top of the Wahoos rotation until June 1 when Wang opts out of Bats contract (if not sooner
Jon Moscot - Ditto for Francis
Ryan Dennick - lefty for the Pepsi rotation
Tim Crabbe - may be a surprise who moves up by draft day
Shane Dyer - solid guy for the bottom of a AA rotation
Mikey O'Brien & Mike Dennhart - vie for swing spot

Bakersfield Blaze (A+)

Josh Smith - unless there's an injury or call-up, here until the Memorial day move-up
Daniel Renken - Ditto
Ishmael Guillon - might beat the previous two to up the ladder if he can show decent control, if he can't he might end up in the pen
Drew Cisco - advanced control advances him
Ben Lively - they challenge him after last season's stellar season
James Allen & Jake Johnson - fight for 6th spot

Dayton Dragons

Nick Travieso
Sal Ramano
Wandy Peralta
Rhadames Quezada
Amir Garrett
Jackson Stephens