When your best prospects are a full season away, maybe two, and your farm is deep in the low end and shallow at the top, your big club is strapped financially, you try to keep the core together, risk that your young CFer can adequately replace your lost superstar and look for a AAAA stockpile to give you some depth and then try to roll it through one more season. The gamble may work if the Reds stay healthy. I've said since the off season started I didn't expect much this winter and unfortunately it's come true.
As for the Cards and Pirates, I think the Cards do regress but not to 85 or 88 wins. They'll still win 90-92 games, they just aren't going to score as much as they did last year. Those numbers with RISP are going to decline. But losing Beltran and Freese is over magnified, I think and more than offset by picking up Ellis, Peralhta and Bourjos with Adams playing fulltime and youngsters Wong and Taveras fully backed by veterans.
They picked up 3 major players, have 2 touted youngsters coming, and get Adams bat full time.
The Pirates didn't do much to stay the course and there the pitching will regress. The Pirates I do put in the 85-88 win area. I expect the Reds to be right there, too.