When your best prospects are a full season away, maybe two, and your farm is deep in the low end and shallow at the top, your big club is strapped financially, you try to keep the core together, risk that your young CFer can adequately replace your lost superstar and look for a AAAA stockpile to give you some depth and then try to roll it through one more season. The gamble may work if the Reds stay healthy. I've said since the off season started I didn't expect much this winter and unfortunately it's come true.
As for the Cards and Pirates, I think the Cards do regress but not to 85 or 88 wins. They'll still win 90-92 games, they just aren't going to score as much as they did last year. Those numbers with RISP are going to decline. But losing Beltran and Freese is over magnified, I think and more than offset by picking up Ellis, Peralhta and Bourjos with Adams playing fulltime and youngsters Wong and Taveras fully backed by veterans.
They picked up 3 major players, have 2 touted youngsters coming, and get Adams bat full time.
The Pirates didn't do much to stay the course and there the pitching will regress. The Pirates I do put in the 85-88 win area. I expect the Reds to be right there, too.
No - I am not from State Farm!
If he is told by ownership there is no money and he can't find trading partners unless he gives up to much, exactly "what" do you want him to do?
The Cards are not going to fall far from where they were last year. The Pirates I do not see maintaining in a pennant race as they did last year. The Reds are the same team, basically, as the last two years and can expect the same performance.
I see us with a shot at the Division. The playoffs are a different matter. But I see us with a shot at the division.
Old school 1983 (01-28-2014)
He signed Pena and Nelson he is probably tired after expending all that effort
Perhaps we are spoiled after two off seasons in a row where Walt arguably made the best move of the year. Sometimes patience and cooler heads prevail.
He has not replaced Choo. Choo replaced Stubbs. Stubbs gave us nothing and we lose in the first round of the playoffs. Next year, Choo gets on base like a madman but we lose in the first round of the playoffs.
Obviously, that position is not the answer. Maybe getting better production, (when we actually need it), would be closer to the answer. Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Ludwick, and Frazier need to up their game in the clutch.
We had a good offense in 2012, not great, a healthy and dominant rotation and bullpen and a great defense. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm worried whether this offense is going to be able to score runs just like everyone else though but i think I'm a little more optimistic about guys producing. A decent signing/trade other than AAAA and bench help would go a long way but if pitching stays relatively healthy and our defense continues to be top tier I think they definitely have a shot at playoff contention.
I suspect that the Reds top priority is getting an extension done with Latos or Bailey. If the Reds can get Homer signed to a somewhat reasonable long term extension, that would be a huge accomplishment for Walt.
The fact of the matter is that until the Reds figure out what will happen with Homer, it is tough to make other moves because he will have such a big impact on payroll one way or the other.
I also think that the inactivity this offseason sets the Reds up to be major players this summer.
Hopefully, the team will be in contention and just need to add a veteran piece of 2. The way I see it, we have a handful of positions that are potential question marks. It is possible that some of them will be filled just fine by the guys we have. But it is likely that not all 5 are filled well. We will know which positions we really need help at much more clearly during the season.
For example, will Ludwick bounce back and provide some power in LF? Will Cozart keep up the solid numbers from the 2nd half of last year? Will Hamilton be ready and hit enough to be the every day CF? Will we get the 2012 or the 2013 Todd Frazier? Will Mez blossom as the everyday Catcher? Can Cueto stay healthy? Is Robert Stephenson ready for the majors?
Once we get answers to those questions and we know whether the Reds are in "win now" vs. rebuild on the fly mode, then moves can be made with a lot better information.
Hello everybody. New here. Love what I've seen so far of the site.
This team is good to go in my opinion, so long as the rash of injuries to key players doesn't happen again, and Votto returns to what he was before his injury in 2012.
The pitching staff from top to bottom is among the best in all of baseball, and they won 90 games with an offense that was inconsistent at best. The only players in the lineup last year you could say either met or exceeded expectations were Bruce and Choo. Losing Choo hurts, but I expect Hamilton to make a positive impact on this lineup. He won't approach Choo's slash line, but he'll make a difference in a different, less tangible way I believe with the things that he does exceptionally well.
Ultimately though, Votto is the key. He needs to be the middle of the order hammer that he was up to the injury in 2012, and what they are paying him to be. The Reds need that in order to succeed.
Bottom line is Jocketty has been a below-average GM sans for two moves: The Latos trade and the Choo trade. He's done mindless things such as signing Broxton to a 3-year, $21 million deal, giving Nick Masset a 2-year extension for some odd reason a couple years ago and putting a terrible bench together each season (with this year hopefully finally being the end of that because I do like the Skip Schumaker signing -- but a utility player shouldn't be our marquee signing off the offseason).