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Thread: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

  1. #16
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    You stick him out there and let him figure it out --if he has an OBP of .300 i still think he'd have a 2.0-2.5 WAR year and that isnt bad. If the team is gonna be completely about pitching and defense, you might as well go all the way with it and maximize those features.

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  3. #17
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    I don't think this will happen, but if he struggles that badly offensively the first step needs to be getting him out of the leadoff spot. He can be just as big of a SB weapon later in the lineup and it might take more pressure off of him and keep his speed/ defense? in the game.

    If he is seriously hitting like Gookie Dawkins through 300 ABs then we can reconsider his spot in the primary lineup.

  4. #18
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    And if his bat is no better than what Drew Stubbs was?
    Hopefully Price is smart enough not to put him at the top of the lineup. An 8th place batting BH wouldn't be a terrible thing to have roaming CF.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  5. #19
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Hopefully Price is smart enough not to put him at the top of the lineup. An 8th place batting BH wouldn't be a terrible thing to have roaming CF.
    I say hit him 9th, would kinda be like batting 1st once the line-up has rolled over.

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  7. #20
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    If he could hit like Stubbs, I'd be thrilled. With his speed and base stealing, he'd score 90 runs. That would be a decent rookie season for him.

    Worst case, if Billy struggles really badly offensively, you drop him to the #8 spot in the lineup. You can also use Heisey and Schumaker to spot start against tough matchups.
    Stubbs hit like Stubbs and scored 90+ runs twice.

    Which begs the question... What exactly do we want from Billy Hamilton? When Stubbs was around .260 .325 .440 He scored 91 runs. 2010-2011. His walk rate is fairly consistent, His ability to get a hit however has dropped every year since 2010, though it did rebound slightly last year.

    So Hamilton at .260 .330 .375? Is that ok? with his particular style, the power isn't as important, because he'll keep opposing pitchers honest with the bunt/swinging bunt threat, something Stubbs never really did, but had some decent power to offset that.

    So can Hamilton post at least a .330 OBP? If he does, AND he's the leadoff hitter, he'll score 90+ runs. Last year that would have made him top 5 in all of baseball. Stubbs did that in his first full season, without properly going through the minor leagues the way Hamilton has. (Stubbs was waaaay rushed after Low A.)
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #21
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    If B Ham would obp .330 in his first year I would be ecstatic. If he puts up numbers like that he would be incredibly disruptive.

  9. #22
    OCS Prez Cant Touch This's Avatar
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    He can still be used as a pinch-runner 40-50 times when he doesn't start. He proved how valuable he is being used that way last Fall.

    He's going to bring value to the ball-club, making them very dangerous in the late innings with his base-stealing ability.
    This is where I stand, as well. If he's not producing at the plate enough to warrant regular starts, he is insanely valuable off the bench. We saw that in September. He can absolutely affect the game's outcome without setting foot in the batter's box.

    It's all about runs. You can't spell runs without run. And I've never seen someone run the bases like him.

    The Reds are blessed with some extremes:

    Chapman: Fastest fastball in the league (most of the time)
    Hamilton: Fastest runner in the league (all of the time)
    Votto: Fastest OBP in the league. (I know that doesn't make sense but I'm on a roll.)

    That's gotta be good for something? Right? Right? Right.
    A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no holes is a danish. -- Zen Philosopher Basho

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  10. #23
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    If Hamilton stinks up the joint , they have Jason Bourgeois and Schumaker as other stop gap options besides Heisey. I would also not be surprised if DRob gets signed to a MiLb deal if he is unable to secure a MLB deal somewhere else.
    Last edited by klw; 01-23-2014 at 10:52 AM.

  11. #24
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    And if his bat is no better than what Drew Stubbs was?
    We won the division and made the playoffs with Stubbs, right? (I think he'll be better, but the point remains)
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  12. #25
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    I would take a .330 OBP from him in a second if you could guarantee that. I am more worried about a .285 OBP situation arising.

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    5TimeWSChamps (01-23-2014), Chip R (01-23-2014), dougdirt (01-23-2014), mth123 (01-24-2014)

  14. #26
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    Quote Originally Posted by dubc47834 View Post
    I say hit him 9th, would kinda be like batting 1st once the line-up has rolled over.
    Actually I think it would be fun to put Hamilton in the 8 slot.
    It relieves any pressure he might feel leading off.
    He would get some small OBP boost with the pitcher behind him.
    A pitchers sacrifice would likely put Hamilton on 3rd for the top of the order.

    I wouldn't do it because somebody has to lead off and Hamilton is the obvious choice, but if he struggles getting on base put him 8th and play to his strength.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    TOBTTReds (01-23-2014)

  16. #27
    Burn It Jamz's Avatar
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    I'm confident that Hamilton is going to make an impact in a positive way for this team. His bat has constantly improved since he started playing baseball, and I don't see that stopping now. He might have some struggles this year, but I don't see him having a worse OBP than Cozart of last year and with his running/fielding abilities he'll be a positive asset to the team.

    The beauty is that he's a pretty safe bet to be at least slightly above league average for the team, and has the potential to really explode if he can hit.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

  17. #28
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Hopefully Price is smart enough not to put him at the top of the lineup. An 8th place batting BH wouldn't be a terrible thing to have roaming CF.
    I think batting him 8th would be the worst place to bat him. When he gets on, he's likely in scoring position. You don't want an automatic out behind him. Batting him 9th has him leading off more often with a likely out in front of him. Batting him 7th forces the 8th hitter to be walked before the automatic out bringing the top of the lineup around more quickly.

    Concepcion would bat 7th. His speed put himself in scoring position with two opportunities to knock him in. It worked frequently. I would bat Hamilton 7th, myself. I like putting speed at the top of the bottom of the lineup. If he is, try another spot.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 01-23-2014 at 12:54 PM.

  18. #29
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    If the Reds play Hamilton 650 PAs as a lead off hitter, I think it will not work. It's too much of a burden for a kid who hasn't yet hit much at AAA.

    The Reds need to be smart with BH, play him 100 games, pinch run a bunch of times. Sit him against pitchers he can't handle. Bat him lower in the lineup if he's slumping.

    If they handle him correctly it should work out ok. Hopefully he improves over the course of the season and is ready for a full load in 2015.

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    BoxingRed (01-23-2014)

  20. #30
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    Re: And If Hamilton Isn't Ready.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If the Reds play Hamilton 650 PAs as a lead off hitter, I think it will not work. It's too much of a burden for a kid who hasn't yet hit much at AAA.

    The Reds need to be smart with BH, play him 100 games, pinch run a bunch of times. Sit him against pitchers he can't handle. Bat him lower in the lineup if he's slumping.

    If they handle him correctly it should work out ok. Hopefully he improves over the course of the season and is ready for a full load in 2015.
    I'm fine with that as a plan, but I think we also need to act with the understanding that we are a borderline playoff team, not good enough to give away games and still make the playoffs and not bad enough to just worry about development of players ignoring the standings.

    So with that said, the Reds need to do what's best to win games this year. Maybe the 100 games plan does that, but I want to make sure if we decide to limit him we're doing it to improve our 2014 team (by keeping him productive) and not getting him ready for 2015. Personal opinion, I think we're likely worse in 2015 than 2014 and I'm not intersted in giving away a year of the Votto/Bruce/Phillips/Cueto/Latos/Bailey/Chapman prime years to help with the development of anyone, whether the kid is the next Ichiro or he is the next WillyT.

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