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Thread: Phillips declining?

  1. #1
    Member yadontSabo's Avatar
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    Phillips declining?

    I've seen some worry that due to BP's 2013 year that maybe he is beginning to decline rapidly due to age. I'm sure it's been mentioned but if you look at his stats up until his injury June 1 he hit .296/.347/.481 with a not outrageous .309babip. It seemed to me that he never really took the proper time to recover and pushed through the injury the entire rest of the season and really hurt his performance. I think, barring injury, we will see a much more productive BP in 2014 taking away a little of the uncertainty we have in the offense.

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    Chuckie (02-07-2014)

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    Re: Phillips declining?

    I hope you're right. His pre injury numbers are reason to believe in a comeback season, but if the injury really was the cause for his second half decline that is reason for worry in itself. Not every player gets in their mid 30s and losses strength and power. Some and possibly in Phillips case is a reduction in the ability of the body to heal quickly. If that is the case with Phillips it could be another HBP or possibly an awkward dive on a ball in shallow right that lingers for months. A big year by Phillips would go a long way for the Reds this year.

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    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by yadontSabo View Post
    I've seen some worry that due to BP's 2013 year that maybe he is beginning to decline rapidly due to age. I'm sure it's been mentioned but if you look at his stats up until his injury June 1 he hit .296/.347/.481 with a not outrageous .309babip. It seemed to me that he never really took the proper time to recover and pushed through the injury the entire rest of the season and really hurt his performance. I think, barring injury, we will see a much more productive BP in 2014 taking away a little of the uncertainty we have in the offense.
    Is he declining? Yes. He's going to turn 33 in July and players aren't ascending in their 30s. But is he rapidly declining? I would say absolutely not. His skill set is the type that doesn't just go away overnight. So getting what he did in 2013 for the next couple of years will be just fine. That is still a top ten second baseman IMO.
    They don't think it be like it is but it do.

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    Member Dwarftree's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Apart from the injury, that obviously affected his play, one of the reasons he has had not as high of an OBP was that he was moved to the cleanup spot. Imho DatDude is a clear #2 slot hitter and hopefully he will shine there again. I really do not think that the numbers of the past year(s) are a sign to make us worry. Plus: 33 is not an age for a ballplayer.

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    Member yadontSabo's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips declining?

    I agree that at his age he is most certainly in a decline especially from his 2011 campaign which, aside from a future uncommon monster year, will probably go down as his career season. But I don't think it's foolish to expect to see something in the range of .270/.340/.440 accompanied by an elite glove, and I'll take that any day of the week.

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    Re: Phillips declining?

    There is no question that without "help" all players are going to decline as they reach a certain age. With Phillips I think we need to understand the type of player he is. He plays a certain way which is playing to what his manager wants and playing hurt. Last year he did what his manager asked him to do and played in many games where maybe he should have sat. It will be interesting to see where Price puts him this year in the order and exactly what his expecations will be. I think it's also key that especially given his age that his health be wathced and allowed to rest from time to time and if hurt allowed to heal.

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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Fan View Post
    There is no question that without "help" all players are going to decline as they reach a certain age. With Phillips I think we need to understand the type of player he is. He plays a certain way which is playing to what his manager wants and playing hurt. Last year he did what his manager asked him to do and played in many games where maybe he should have sat. It will be interesting to see where Price puts him this year in the order and exactly what his expecations will be. I think it's also key that especially given his age that his health be wathced and allowed to rest from time to time and if hurt allowed to heal.
    I agree with this. Hopefully skip Shumaker can have a solid year at the plate to give Price that flexibility. You never know how things will shake out, but it seems BP would be more productive getting 500-550 at bats than 600-650.

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    Torty ac084c's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwarftree View Post
    Apart from the injury, that obviously affected his play, one of the reasons he has had not as high of an OBP was that he was moved to the cleanup spot. Imho DatDude is a clear #2 slot hitter and hopefully he will shine there again. I really do not think that the numbers of the past year(s) are a sign to make us worry. Plus: 33 is not an age for a ballplayer.
    2013 MLB Splits:
    2nd batter: .264/.322/.397
    4th batter: .269/.338/.451

    2013 NL Splits:
    2nd batter: .262/.318/.392
    4th batter: .275/.342/.452

    2013 Brandon Phillips Splits:
    2nd batter: .240/.305/.365
    4th batter: .268/.312/.404

    Career BP Splits:
    2nd batter: .275/.320/.420
    4th batter: .279/.327/.443


    So your argument doesn't hold water on 3 fronts:
    1) His 2013 numbers were well below league average and MLB average for those spots in the order
    2) His 2013 numbers in the 2 hole were below his numbers in the 4 hole
    3) his Career numbers in the 2 hole are below his career numbers in the 4 hole.

    Look at his numbers starting in 2011 (age 30 season):
    2011 (age 30): .300/.353/.457/.810, 118 OPS+, 122 wRC+ (675 plate appearances)
    2012 (age 31): .281/.321/.429/.750, 99 OPS+, 101 wRC+ (623 plate appearances)
    2013 (age 32): .261/.310/.396/.706, 92 OPS+, 91 wRC+ (666 plate appearances)

    That's not an encouraging trend, folks. The one saving grace has been that his defense isn't seeing the sharp decline yet... but it's coming.

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    mth123 (01-28-2014)

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    Member yadontSabo's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by ac084c View Post
    2013 MLB Splits:
    2nd batter: .264/.322/.397
    4th batter: .269/.338/.451

    2013 NL Splits:
    2nd batter: .262/.318/.392
    4th batter: .275/.342/.452

    2013 Brandon Phillips Splits:
    2nd batter: .240/.305/.365
    4th batter: .268/.312/.404

    Career BP Splits:
    2nd batter: .275/.320/.420
    4th batter: .279/.327/.443


    So your argument doesn't hold water on 3 fronts:
    1) His 2013 numbers were well below league average and MLB average for those spots in the order
    2) His 2013 numbers in the 2 hole were below his numbers in the 4 hole
    3) his Career numbers in the 2 hole are below his career numbers in the 4 hole.

    Look at his numbers starting in 2011 (age 30 season):
    2011 (age 30): .300/.353/.457/.810, 118 OPS+, 122 wRC+ (675 plate appearances)
    2012 (age 31): .281/.321/.429/.750, 99 OPS+, 101 wRC+ (623 plate appearances)
    2013 (age 32): .261/.310/.396/.706, 92 OPS+, 91 wRC+ (666 plate appearances)

    That's not an encouraging trend, folks. The one saving grace has been that his defense isn't seeing the sharp decline yet... but it's coming.

    I don't think it's fair to say his argument doesn't hold water based on the numbers you've used. He only had one game in the 2 hole (opening day) pre-injury when the majority of his positive stats came aside from an uptick in part of August. Also his moves to the 2 hole were generally in an attempt to shake off a slump he was having in clean up. Also his career numbers in each spot aren't so drastically different that they warrant a claim that he is certainly better batting 4th than 2nd.

    And the number you're using to show his decline are a bit misleading because you're starting with the best year by far of his career. His 09 and 10 seasons were very similar around .275/.330/.440 which are near his career numbers as well as his 12 season.

    I don't disagree with saying he is in a decline but I am not one to believe 2013 was an age related downward trend... yet.

  13. #10
    Torty ac084c's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by yadontSabo View Post
    I don't think it's fair to say his argument doesn't hold water based on the numbers you've used. He only had one game in the 2 hole (opening day) pre-injury when the majority of his positive stats came aside from an uptick in part of August. Also his moves to the 2 hole were generally in an attempt to shake off a slump he was having in clean up. Also his career numbers in each spot aren't so drastically different that they warrant a claim that he is certainly better batting 4th than 2nd.

    And the number you're using to show his decline are a bit misleading because you're starting with the best year by far of his career. His 09 and 10 seasons were very similar around .275/.330/.440 which are near his career numbers as well as his 12 season.

    I don't disagree with saying he is in a decline but I am not one to believe 2013 was an age related downward trend... yet.
    I'm not sure it's safe to play the injury card when a guy gets in over 600 plate appearances. You could say he played through injury, I guess.... but that's not something that will necessarily get better with age.

    Also, I wasn't trying to purport that he was better batting 4th than second (even though his career numbers back that up) - i was simply trying to show that he WASN'T better batting 2nd than 4th - as the poster claimed.

    And yes - I'm starting with his best year - I didn't think he was declining in 2009 and 2010 (before he was 30).

    If you can't see that he's clearly declining, you're wearing the rose-colored glasses.

  14. #11
    Member yadontSabo's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by ac084c View Post
    I'm not sure it's safe to play the injury card when a guy gets in over 600 plate appearances. You could say he played through injury, I guess.... but that's not something that will necessarily get better with age.

    Also, I wasn't trying to purport that he was better batting 4th than second (even though his career numbers back that up) - i was simply trying to show that he WASN'T better batting 2nd than 4th - as the poster claimed.

    And yes - I'm starting with his best year - I didn't think he was declining in 2009 and 2010 (before he was 30).

    If you can't see that he's clearly declining, you're wearing the rose-colored glasses.

    I'm saying he never took the time to properly heal and the numbers post injury, to me, reflect that he the injury was most likely a constant nag. Being a guy that considers himself the leader of the team I can definitely see that being the case.

    Ah, I see what you were saying. Although, i still don't think the numbers show a clear benefit to batting at either position.

    I see his 09, 10 seasons as his career average and 12 was a trend back to that with 11 being an exceptional outlying career year. His BABIP was not insane but it was by far the best of his career in 11 as well.

    I never said he was not declining but that the numbers trend of 11, 12 and 13 don't paint an accurate picture of his decline.

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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by yadontSabo View Post
    I agree that at his age he is most certainly in a decline especially from his 2011 campaign which, aside from a future uncommon monster year, will probably go down as his career season.
    So, in summary, unless he has a future "career year", his past "career year" will go down as his "career year".......




  16. #13
    Member yadontSabo's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    So, in summary, unless he has a future "career year", his past "career year" will go down as his "career year".......




    I prefer to consider it "the meat and potatoes" of my thesis.

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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Let me ask this question.....

    How many better second baseman are out there?
    ...and this one belongs to the Reds.

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    Re: Phillips declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by Assembly Hall View Post
    Let me ask this question.....

    How many better second baseman are out there?
    Somewhere between 11 and 13.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/24/14. I promise.

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