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Thread: The Reds are not a contending team.

  1. #181
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Oh yeah? Then how would you explain a fact that unlike "the real world", there is not a single poster in this thread, maybe in the entire forum, who think that the Reds are not a contender?
    Don't you think that's kind of strange?
    Yeah, that may in part stem from a fact that they are afraid of 'Dislikes' they will get after saying that the Reds are not a contender.
    This isn't the real world? If you prick us, do we not bleed? If you tickle us, do we not laugh? If you poison us, do we not die?

    I guess I made a wrong turn at www.

    As redread sort of alluded to, I think you're conflating a couple of isolated statistical projections with being a contender, i.e. a team capable of contending for a title.

    It's one thing for a projection system to say the Reds will only win 85 games (though 80 wins is a ridiculous position); it's another to say a team that is coming off an 90-win season that has a majority of its core still intact is incapable and is not a 'contender.'
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  4. #182
    Stat geek...and proud
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    Here is what I do not get about all these projections. They are quite inaccurate. I mean getting within 10 wins is not that great of accomplishment. If these models were really good the people would not publish them, they would take them to Vegas and make a living betting over-unders on wins every season.

    Yet these are the same people who like to throw out any baseball stats that are not predictive like ERA or Batting Averages with a high BABIP. Its funny they do not demand the same accuracy from their own projections. They all seem pointless. No more informative than the newspaper writers throwing out there preseason outlooks that have no statistical backing. Neither seem to carry any weight.
    You can't predict ball, Suzyn.

  5. #183
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    You make some great points but we, the forum, are pretty dense.

    It's looking like the only way to convince us is to relax for 9 months, let all the pre-season predictions happen, and then bump this thread to say you told us so in October.
    That's a great idea.

    Code:
                     
    1B    The Shredder          My Prediction
    1.   Miguel Cabrera        Miguel Cabrera
    2.   Joey Votto            Joey Votto
    3.   Paul Goldschmidt      Paul Goldschmidt
    4.   Adrian Gonzalez       Chris Davis  
    5.   Joe Mauer             Prince Fielder
    6.   Mike Napoli           Adrian Gonzalez
    7.   Chris Davis           Edwin Encarnacion
    8.   Freddie Freeman       Freddie Freeman 
    9.   Prince Fielder        Mike Napoli
    10.  Edwin Encarnacion     Albert Pujols
    Code:
                     
    LF    The Shredder          My Prediction
    1.   Matt Holliday          Shin-Soo Choo
    2.   Bryce Harper           Matt Holliday  
    3.   Alex Gordon            Bryce Harper
    4.   Justin Upton           Justin Upton
    5.   Shin-Soo Choo          Starling Marte   
    6.   Starling Marte         Alex Gordon   
    7.   Daniel Nava            Curtis Granderson
    8.   Carlos Quentin         Brett Gardner
    9.   Josh Hamilton          Yoenis Cespedes
    10.  Brett Gardner          Chris Denorfia
    *First basemen that just missed: Pujols, Belt, Swisher, Moss
    *Left Fielders that just missed: Melky Cabrera ,Granderson, Cespedes, Trumbo

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    My predictions for the first basemen and the left fielders.

    First Basemen
    1. Miguel Cabrera
    2. Joey Votto
    3. Paul Goldschmidt
    4. Chris Davis
    5. Prince Fielder
    6. Adrian Gonzalez
    7. Edwin Encarnacion
    8. Freddie Freeman
    9. Mike Napoli
    10. Albert Pujols

    Left Fielders

    1. Shin-Soo Choo
    2. Matt Holliday
    3. Bryce Harper
    4. Justin Upton
    5. Starling Marte
    6. Alex Gordon
    7. Curtis Granderson
    8. Brett Gardner
    9. Yoenis Cespedes
    10. Chris Denorfia
    I forgot Joe Mauer is a first baseman now.
    Anyway, here is the list of rankings for 1B and LF.


    Top 10 First Basemen

    1. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
    2. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds
    3. Paul Goldschmidt – Arizona Diamondbacks
    4. Adrian Gonzalez – Los Angeles Dodgers
    5. Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins
    6. Mike Napoli – Boston Red Sox
    7. Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles
    8. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves
    9. Prince Fielder – Texas Rangers
    10. Edwin Encarnacion – Toronto Blue Jays

    Brian Kenny: Cabrera, Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Mauer, Fielder, Davis, Encarnacion, Brandon Belt (SF), Ad. Gonzalez

    Bill James: Cabrera, Goldschmidt, Votto, Davis, Mauer, Freeman, Encarnacion, Ad. Gonzalez, Napoli, Eric Hosmer (KC)

    Sean Casey: Cabrera, Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Davis, Fielder, Ad. Gonzalez, Mauer, Albert Pujols (LAA), Encarnacion


    Top 10 Left Fielders


    1. Matt Holliday – St. Louis Cardinals
    2. Bryce Harper – Washington Nationals
    3. Alex Gordon – Kansas City Royals
    4. Justin Upton – Atlanta Braves
    5. Shin-Soo Choo – Texas Rangers
    6. Starling Marte – Pittsburgh Pirates
    7. Daniel Nava – Boston Red Sox
    8. Carlos Quentin – San Diego Padres
    9. Josh Hamilton – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
    10. Brett Gardner – New York Yankees

    Brian Kenny: Harper, Choo, Holliday, Marte, Upton, Gordon, Gardner, Cespedes, Brown, K.Davis (MIL)

    Bill James: Choo, Holliday, Gordon, Gardner, Nava, Harper, Upton, Brown, Cespedes, Hamilton

    Eric Byrnes: Holliday, Harper, Upton, Choo, Soriano, Gordon, Marte, Hamilton, Nava, Brown
    My prediction for the top 10 second basemen which will be revealed on Friday, January 31st.

    Top 10 Second Basemen

    1. Robinson Cano
    2. Dustin Pedroia
    3. Ben Zobrist
    4. Jason Kipnis
    5. Chase Utley
    6. Howie Kendrick
    7. Ian Kinsler
    8. Brandon Phillips
    9. Marco Scutaro
    10. Omar Infante

  6. #184
    A Dude in the Bushes RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    What does that have to do with team projections and why do you think Chris Denorfia is the 10th best LF in baseball?

  7. #185
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    I have no idea what is going on.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  9. #186
    A Dude in the Bushes RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I have no idea what is going on.
    That is because you are still stuck in the redszone fantasy world. My advice is to stay innocent, the real world is not all it is cracked up to be.

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  11. #187
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I have no idea what is going on.
    Admiral Stockdale is that you?

  12. #188
    Member NebraskaRed's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I have no idea what is going on.

  13. #189
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I have no idea what is going on.
    Only a true genius can understand it.

  14. #190
    Hardscrabble wheels's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I have no idea what is going on.
    Something is definitely being lost in the translation.

  15. #191
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    According to the Redszone dictionary, the word 'regression' does not exist for the Reds pitchers. That word is only for the Cardinals pitchers and Pirates pitchers.
    FWIW, I've already said I expect to see some regression from Cingrani. Mike Leake, I could see his ERA being higher for sure...but for a guy who many consider to be the #5 starter in this rotation, he's STILL better than 90% of the #5's out there. The only club I can think of who has a better 5th starter is the Dodgers with Josh Beckett. And to think of him as a #5 is flat out insane.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  16. #192
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Here is why I am not concerned about the Reds rotation sans Arroyo

    Tony Cingrani.

    Code:
                                     W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	BB/SO	BABIP	GB/FB
    MLB Totals  (2 years)	         7	4	2.86	26	18	110	76	38	35	15	45	129	1.10	6.22	1.23	3.68	10.55	0.35	.257	0.58
    Minor League Totals  (3 years)	16	6	1.66	45	44	228	147	52	42	11	69	301	0.95	5.80	0.43	2.72	11.88	0.23	--	--
    Kid is a stud. period. Will probably pitch about 175 innings this year, which will jump him about 40 innings from 2013 MLB and Minors combined.

    Cueto's health had nothing to do with a shoulder or elbow, but rather just not letting himself heal properly. He's had several months, is known for his workouts. He's a short RH pitcher, but not a lean one. Tremendous power in his legs. Simply put I see little reason to believe that he won't return to form.

    4 guys with Ace potential. 4. Name another team in what plays as a small park with that. It's ok, I'll wait.

    I've stated what I believe are the team's question marks...

    • When will Brandon Phillips wrists be fully healed AND strengthened?
    • Will Hamilton get on base above .300?
    • Will Mesorocco reach his potential at the plate?
    • What happens in LF?


    And that's really it. BP's wrist to me is the single biggest issue. If it is not healed, expect a lot of weak ground balls. If Hamilton is leading off with BP second, Hamilton better be running everytime he gets on.
    Last edited by TRF; 01-29-2014 at 10:52 AM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  18. #193
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I have no idea what is going on.
    Sharks just got jumped.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  19. #194
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    The Mariners posted a 116 win season after they let Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr, and AROD leave the organisation.

    Granted, the Reds can't claim a player like Olerud, perhaps the greatest player in history most often misidentified as being Candadian, but the Reds do have an actual Canadian who plays the same position and might be able to in some ways approximate Olerud's greatness.

    I wouldn't write the Reds off just yet. Or at least I'd wait until pitchers and catchers report to go all FCB on redszone.
    Last edited by jojo; 01-29-2014 at 11:21 AM.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  21. #195
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Oh yeah? Then how would you explain a fact that unlike "the real world", there is not a single poster in this thread, maybe in the entire forum, who think that the Reds are not a contender?
    Don't you think that's kind of strange?
    Yeah, that may in part stem from a fact that they are afraid of 'Dislikes' they will get after saying that the Reds are not a contender.
    I want a dislike button option. Is that a pay feature? I only have the like feature on my free ride, large chested virtual angels version.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

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