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Thread: The Reds are not a contending team.

  1. #46
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    The Reds chances this year will likely revolve around three areas:
    1. health of the rotation
    2. progression of young players- Mes, Frazier, Cozart, Hamilton
    3. health of Bruce, Votto, and to a lesser degree Phillips and Ludwick.

    If the rotation is healthy, they will keep the Reds competitive and in most games. A healthy Reds rotation has no glaring weakness. With a deep bullpen there is depth in that area to absorb a loss or two to pen arms and still be effective.

    The Reds need their core young position players to improve their offense to fill in for the loss of Choo and to become dependable, cost controlled regulars. They do not need to be spectacular but if Frazier and Mes could become dependable 5/6 bats it would be a tremendous gain. Hamilton will likely struggle at times but he will need to be given a chance to adjust to the MLB level, just like most rookies.

    Lastly if Votto or Bruce were to be lost for a long stretch it would really create a hole in the lineup that likely would not be overcome ala 2012 without an amazing job by the starting rotation.

    One area that I think the offseason acquisitions have helped with is to give the Reds a less anemic bench. It would be nice if they had a backup SS with a bit of a bat but almost every team would say that. Last season's bench was really weak and was the area that for me was the most disappointing that no midseason move was made to address. Hopefully with the new options and depth it will be more productive. Given the limitation to budget and market it was an area that could be addressed the most realistically without crating long term damage to the team and its farm system.

    Can they compete this year? Definitely. Could this be a transition year that shows the need to make adjustments to reload to be able compete in 2015 and beyond ? Quite possible.
    Last edited by klw; 01-28-2014 at 09:33 AM.

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  4. #47
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I agree the response was rude and not needed. But as for why it's wrong.....

    1. I don't see either the Cards OR the Pirates having a runs allowed total lower than the Reds unless someone's predicting some very specific injuries. I expect the Cards rotation to be solid if unspectacular. I expect their bullpen to regress some from last year even if they do add back that goofy looking Motte. I expect some HEAVY regression from both the Pirates rotation AND from their pen. They could easily have more runs allowed than scored.

    2. Reds. He's taking last years stats, subtracting Choo and Arroyo and going with those numbers. He's not taking into account any anomalies from last year and adjusting the projections into this year. The Cards should score CONSIDERABLY fewer runs than last year because their numbers are NOT repeatable. The Reds should see considerable increases in offensive stats from numerous players who had surprisingly poor years. Sure, some will stay down, some might even get worse. But the odds are much greater that most will revert to their career norms. And if that happens, it will make up for a LOT of the missing WAR from Choo's departure.

    If his point is to say that the Reds have been fairly inactive this offseason, fine. He's spot on. But to say he's got indepth analysis and his projections are very astute and accurate...then he's WAY off the mark.
    I totally buy into a Pirates collapse. I think you make some decent points about St. Louis, but I think they can get more from guys who weren't full-time guys last year to make up for the loss of Beltran. Adams and Craig were both less than full-time contributors in 2013. I do think there is a real possibility the staff takes a step back as the league adjusts, but I also buy into the talent and the depth of talent. They seem to have multiple options everywhere to throw at you. If Miller or Wacha fail, Martinez or maybe Rosenthal steps in. If Craig or Adams fail, Jon Jay is probably better than every Red's OF besides Bruce. They can move Carpenter back to 2B if Wong fails and play Craig at 3B and Jay in RF. Peralta should be a big upgrade at SS. Or they could go back to the no hit SS from last year and play Peralta at 3B and be no worse than 2013. Taveras could emerge. Just too many guys to settle for a poor performer weighing things down every day or in the rotation. The Reds are stuck with the flawed group on hand and living with their performance.

    As for the WC, two teams that missed the play-offs last year have made big improvements in Washington and Arizona. I think adding Hudson in place of Zito moves the Giants ahead a notch. Byrd helps the Phillies, but I doubt they make the post season. Atlanta has gone backwards, so that works in the Reds favor, but I have a hard time thinking even one WC will come from the central this year, let alone two. If one does, I'd say Milwaukee is a bigger threat than the Pirates. I also think the Padres could be a sleeper, but like the Reds and Pirates, I think most things would have to go right while other teams have things go wrong for it to work out for them.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #48
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    I've been on this forum longer than most. I remember how we talked up Osvaldo Fernandez, when Elmer Dessens was the ace. I remember thinking that Brian Reith kid is a sleeper.

    Never underestimate a fans ability to delude themselves.

    I do not think that is the case here.

    Cozart completely changed his approach in June of last year. It took a month but it is documented what the change was and it had an effect on his OBP. he's got some pop. Here is his post ASB slash line: .282 .315 .400 .715. If he can do that over the course of a full season with his defense, I won't complain. In fact that would make him a top 5 offensive SS in the NL.

    You either believe last year was the real Todd Frazier or the previous year was. Maybe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. His defense was never affected though and he was a plus defender. I see a .775+ OPS from Frazier this year. He was 3rd in the NL in HR's for a 3B. I think his power will uptick a little, maybe 23-25 HR's.

    To me the question marks are as follows:

    • When will Brandon Phillips wrists be fully healed AND strengthened?
    • Will Hamilton get on base above .300?
    • Will Mesorocco reach his potential at the plate?
    • What happens in LF?


    I am not even remotely concerned about the rotation. 4 guys with ace potential and Mike Leake, the best 5th starter out there (even I admit that.) I agree with doug and others that think Cueto never properly healed which led to re-injury. But IMO it was a blessing in disguise. Cueto gets to come in with a fresher healthy arm in 2014 and we discovered just how good Cingrani is. With Stephenson probably slated for AA with a possible late season callup to AAA and Holmberg at AAA as a depth move, the rotation is solid. The pen, maybe more so.

    I've seen plenty of bad Reds teams in my life. This isn't one of them.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  7. #49
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Not really. We had one last year and they went to the play-offs (thanks to the expanded format). This team took a step back from that by losing one of it's starting pitchers and it's second best offensive player. The article makes a point of saying their is a quality backfill for Arroyo and a drop-off in CF.

    How can we really argue with the logic? The team that made it in the bubble spot in 2013, took a step back, the competition has made moves to improve and the Reds haven't answered. That's all correct IMO. I personally think they will contend because of the pitching, but I also think they'll come-up short because the position players are lacking. It's not a foregone conclusion, but a lot of things would have to go right for them to make the post season. Isn't that hoping a=instead of taking action? Isn't that what the article is saying?
    That may be what the article is saying, but the OP is saying that the Reds are clearly not contenders, and that anyone who thinks they are is living in a fantasy world. Personally, I think that is way over the top, to the point of overreactionary absurdism.

    jvs

  8. #50
    Pimpin...literally!!! dubc47834's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I've been on this forum longer than most. I remember how we talked up Osvaldo Fernandez, when Elmer Dessens was the ace. I remember thinking that Brian Reith kid is a sleeper.

    Never underestimate a fans ability to delude themselves.

    I do not think that is the case here.

    Cozart completely changed his approach in June of last year. It took a month but it is documented what the change was and it had an effect on his OBP. he's got some pop. Here is his post ASB slash line: .282 .315 .400 .715. If he can do that over the course of a full season with his defense, I won't complain. In fact that would make him a top 5 offensive SS in the NL.

    You either believe last year was the real Todd Frazier or the previous year was. Maybe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. His defense was never affected though and he was a plus defender. I see a .775+ OPS from Frazier this year. He was 3rd in the NL in HR's for a 3B. I think his power will uptick a little, maybe 23-25 HR's.

    To me the question marks are as follows:

    • When will Brandon Phillips wrists be fully healed AND strengthened?
    • Will Hamilton get on base above .300?
    • Will Mesorocco reach his potential at the plate?
    • What happens in LF?


    I am not even remotely concerned about the rotation. 4 guys with ace potential and Mike Leake, the best 5th starter out there (even I admit that.) I agree with doug and others that think Cueto never properly healed which led to re-injury. But IMO it was a blessing in disguise. Cueto gets to come in with a fresher healthy arm in 2014 and we discovered just how good Cingrani is. With Stephenson probably slated for AA with a possible late season callup to AAA and Holmberg at AAA as a depth move, the rotation is solid. The pen, maybe more so.

    I've seen plenty of bad Reds teams in my life. This isn't one of them.
    Great post man!

  9. #51
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    It doesn't matter that Brandon Phillips or Todd Frazier is a decent player. What matters is that if either are your third best player, then the team needs an upgrade.
    Couldn't you actually make the argument that they are more like the 5th or 6th best players? That after Votto and Bruce, a couple of pitchers are the next best players, WAR wise.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  10. #52
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by CySeymour View Post
    Couldn't you actually make the argument that they are more like the 5th or 6th best players? That after Votto and Bruce, a couple of pitchers are the next best players, WAR wise.
    Agreed. talking position players. Latos, Bailey and Cueto would be in the top 5. Leake is quality and Cingrani is promising. Several bullpen guys would be ahead of Phillips and Frazier on my list as well. IMO, that's the problem.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #53
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I can argue it by saying that I expect more than 60 innings from Cueto and more than 97 innings from Tony Cingrani the starter, which makes up for losing the guy who was probably our #5 starter. I would also add in that it is going to be very difficult for us to be worse at the catcher and left field positions as well.

    I also don't see the Cardinals or the Pirates making moves to improve. Made moves? Sure. But got better? Not sure about that.

    The Reds offseason has stunk. No way around it. But they are improving from within.
    Reds were a wild card. The NL is bigger than Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Arizona and Washington have improved. SF and SD have as well. Even Milwaukee and Philly have made positive strides. I'd say that ATL, CIN and PIT are all at huge risk of missing the post-season because they've let talent leave without making offsetting moves. Agree that losing Arroyo should be covered from within, but the position side has taken a huge, huge hit and I don't share the optimism behind the plate or in LF but acknowledge that there could be some improvement there. Not enough to offset the loss in CF though.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  13. #54
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Reds were a wild card. The NL is bigger than Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Arizona and Washington have improved. SF and SD have as well. Even Milwaukee and Philly have made positive strides. I'd say that ATL, CIN and PIT are all at huge risk of missing the post-season because they've let talent leave without making offsetting moves. Agree that losing Arroyo should be covered from within, but the position side has taken a huge, huge hit and I don't share the optimism behind the plate or in LF but acknowledge that there could be some improvement there. Not enough to offset the loss in CF though.
    I don't think there is much debate that in the Central, the Cards are the big boys on the street. I honestly think Cincinnati will be better than the Pirates this season, due to Pittsburgh probably losing Burnett and not having any viable options at 1st base, plus season long regressions from Liriano and the back end of the bullpen. But I think it is very fair to say the Reds have to have several things go right to catch St. Louis and to also win a wild card spot. However, this is baseball and strange things happen.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  14. #55
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Reds were a wild card. The NL is bigger than Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Arizona and Washington have improved. SF and SD have as well. Even Milwaukee and Philly have made positive strides. I'd say that ATL, CIN and PIT are all at huge risk of missing the post-season because they've let talent leave without making offsetting moves. Agree that losing Arroyo should be covered from within, but the position side has taken a huge, huge hit and I don't share the optimism behind the plate or in LF but acknowledge that there could be some improvement there. Not enough to offset the loss in CF though.
    Yes, the Reds were a wild card, but they won 90 games. I think this team, heading into 2014 is about as good as the team last year. The downgrade from Choo (or at least the downgrade that I expect it to be) is likely to be offset by the improvements that I am talking about. If you have 90 win talent, then you are a contending team and a small amount of luck from winning the division (either a small amount of good luck in your favor or a small amount of bad luck in another team).

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  16. #56
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    It's about time someone started this thread. I'm tired of this topic taking over every thread on RZ.

  17. #57
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    It's January, Clay Davenport is just as right and just as wrong as everyone else.

    Call me when they play, I come for the games not the predictions.

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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Not really. We had one last year and they went to the play-offs (thanks to the expanded format).
    I'm not sure it is fair to say that last year's team was built on pitching.

    # 3 in runs scored and #4 in runs allowed in the NL seems more like a pretty good balanced team.

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  21. #59
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    I find articles like this to be somewhat lazy. Its a legitimate gripe for many that the Reds didn't improve themselves enough over the off season. Its a legitimate gripe that the Reds offense will take a hit without Choo at leadoff. It is fair to call the offense average, but I also think you must add in there that they have one of the very best hitters in the game hitting in the 3 spot.

    That said who would you rather have going into a season Arroyo or Cueto? How about the 2013 Cingrani or the 2014 Cingrani? What does an average offense, good pitching staff, good pen, and elite defense get you? You can say the offense will struggle at times and I fully admit they will. But you can't look at the rotation and tell me that they will struggle. You can't look at a defense with guys like Phillips, Cozart, and Hamilton up the middle and say they will struggle to get to balls. Or look at the corners and see Frazier and a gold glover in Votto at first and Bruce in right.

    I don't think its rosy colored glasses to see this team as constructed can and will compete. I don't think its rosy colored glasses to see a team that can pitch and catch up there with the best in the league. The problem with looking solely at offense is you miss the other aspects of the game that are just as important.

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  23. #60
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    I got concerns about the team going into 2014 like most others. But the "not a contender" is over on the left hand side of the probabilities bell curve.

    You just need to treat these kinds of threads as academic exercises. People posit all kinds of things. Some are likely and some not. Some are interesting and some aren't. But they all just exist as opinion bytes floating out in the ether. I don't get too cranked up over them.

    Pay attention to the open sky


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