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Thread: The Reds are not a contending team.

  1. #61
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    So why? When I look at this team I see a roster full of Tommy Helms. Tommy Helms was a good player who was a multiple time All Star, a former Rookie of the Year and won a couple of Gold Gloves. The team went to a World Series with him playing 2B. Yet the team knew it needed to change the mix and upgrade to get to the next level. Tommy Helms was a good player and it was preposterous to think he was the reason they lost, but a roster filled with Tommy Helms at 6 of the 8 positions wouldn't win anything. That is what I see on this Reds team. Votto, Bruce and Tommy Helms at 6 other spots. A couple of those Tommy Helms are very valuable guys who plug holes and make the roster work. Filling the line-up with him is settling and is a disaster in the making. Somewhere an upgrade or two is needed to improve the collective roster. It doesn't matter that Brandon Phillips or Todd Frazier is a decent player. What matters is that if either are your third best player, then the team needs an upgrade.
    So why should Walt Jocketty and the FO be blamed for not doing anything because there are no teams out there like the Houston Astros who are willing to trade Joe Morgan in return for the "Tommy Helms" on this team. It takes two to tango, but no one wants to dance.

    I don't think any of us has a clue what it takes to negotiate a trade from a GM's perspective. Too many variables go in to making a trade that none of us have considered. Both GM's must feel they each are improving their respective teams, without weakening their teams in other areas. That's harder than we might think.

    Consider Brandon Phillips. The entire off-season has been dedicated to sending BP packing to a new team. But when you think about it, it really makes no sense to even trade BP unless the Reds have a Gold Glove caliber 2B hidden somewhere who will give them equal or better offense. A declining Brandon Phillips will probably be better than half the starting 2B's in baseball. Say they do trade BP for an upgrade in LF, that still leaves huge question marks at C, 3B, SS, and CF. Plus, they've created a black hole at 2B.

    I understand the frustration. But Walt cannot force any GM into making a deal.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

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  4. #62
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Everybody's got to try to get out ahead of the crowd. In September no one will remember or care that somebody was this wrong, but if they're right people will say hey! that guy was smart!

  5. #63
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I totally buy into a Pirates collapse. I think you make some decent points about St. Louis, but I think they can get more from guys who weren't full-time guys last year to make up for the loss of Beltran. Adams and Craig were both less than full-time contributors in 2013. I do think there is a real possibility the staff takes a step back as the league adjusts, but I also buy into the talent and the depth of talent. They seem to have multiple options everywhere to throw at you. If Miller or Wacha fail, Martinez or maybe Rosenthal steps in. If Craig or Adams fail, Jon Jay is probably better than every Red's OF besides Bruce. They can move Carpenter back to 2B if Wong fails and play Craig at 3B and Jay in RF. Peralta should be a big upgrade at SS. Or they could go back to the no hit SS from last year and play Peralta at 3B and be no worse than 2013. Taveras could emerge. Just too many guys to settle for a poor performer weighing things down every day or in the rotation. The Reds are stuck with the flawed group on hand and living with their performance.
    I agree with you that the Cards have much more position player depth. There's no doubt. But that being said, I also think they mostly all played over their abilities last season. Yes, they tend to be more patient hitters than us overall. But I definitely don't expect them to plate the number of runs they did last year. Their BA/risp was impossible to repeat IMO. Their BABIP overall was incredibly high for lots of guys too. Yes, several of their players tend to have higher than average BABIP...but last season saw even those normally high numbers climb to even greater heights. Those numbers will normalize and the runs will disappear. So I expect to see fewer runs scored and more runs allowed from the Cards compared to last season.

    As for the WC, two teams that missed the play-offs last year have made big improvements in Washington and Arizona. I think adding Hudson in place of Zito moves the Giants ahead a notch. Byrd helps the Phillies, but I doubt they make the post season. Atlanta has gone backwards, so that works in the Reds favor, but I have a hard time thinking even one WC will come from the central this year, let alone two. If one does, I'd say Milwaukee is a bigger threat than the Pirates. I also think the Padres could be a sleeper, but like the Reds and Pirates, I think most things would have to go right while other teams have things go wrong for it to work out for them.

    I agree that the Nats & Arizona have improved and the Brewers should be better too. But I'm not concerned with any of them. I'm not looking at the wild card. I think we take the central. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Pirates 4th behind the brewers. Heck, it wouldn't shock me to see the Cards behind the brewers too. They really underperformed last year due to missing some guys.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  6. #64
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I agree with you that the Cards have much more position player depth. There's no doubt. But that being said, I also think they mostly all played over their abilities last season. Yes, they tend to be more patient hitters than us overall. But I definitely don't expect them to plate the number of runs they did last year. Their BA/risp was impossible to repeat IMO. Their BABIP overall was incredibly high for lots of guys too. Yes, several of their players tend to have higher than average BABIP...but last season saw even those normally high numbers climb to even greater heights. Those numbers will normalize and the runs will disappear. So I expect to see fewer runs scored and more runs allowed from the Cards compared to last season.




    I agree that the Nats & Arizona have improved and the Brewers should be better too. But I'm not concerned with any of them. I'm not looking at the wild card. I think we take the central. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Pirates 4th behind the brewers. Heck, it wouldn't shock me to see the Cards behind the brewers too. They really underperformed last year due to missing some guys.
    I am not sure why you think there is going to be such a downgrade from the Cardinals. Yes I think their RISP will go down but they will get a boost in HRs. ANd they wont be playing Kozma all year at SS. Their pitching staff should be even better. They wont have a half of a season of Jake Westbrook.

  7. #65
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Choo is a big loss, but there are more guys on the roster I would expect to improve than regress.

    Each of Votto, Phillips, Mesoraco, Frazier, Cueto, Ludwick would all be reasonable bets to perform at minimum, as well as last year, and more likely than not better.

    There are far less guys on the other side of the ledger.

    There are so many assumptions and moving parts to any projection method. At the end of the day, the Reds were a contending team last year (and years prior), even with some bad luck, and are neither losing a number of significant pieces or aging to a point of significant regression. I just don't see how that adds up to the Reds being a clear cut non-contender by the original author's study.

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  9. #66
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    It's like adding to your collection of VHS tapes because you're sure collectors will come around, just like they did with vinyl.
    OK, first gripe, because he's definitely wrong about record collections. I've only been collecting records for a few years, and already I have a handful of records that came out in that time that are worth hundreds of dollars.

    So he must be wrong about everything else too.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  10. #67
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by indyscott View Post
    I am not sure why you think there is going to be such a downgrade from the Cardinals. Yes I think their RISP will go down but they will get a boost in HRs. ANd they wont be playing Kozma all year at SS. Their pitching staff should be even better. They wont have a half of a season of Jake Westbrook.
    A few things.

    I do put stock into sophomore slumps. MLB players/teams do adapt to rookies and rookies tend to find it difficult to adjust back quickly. So no, I don't expect to see big seasons from Miller, Wacha, Rosenthal & Martinez.

    I really think Cards fans will be regretting the Peralta signing. I don't care for his defense and I think his bat is PED enhanced fool's gold.

    You can expect to start seeing declining offense from both Holliday and Molina as age and wear n' tear take its toll.

    And of course you should expect to see alot of those runs disappear with the normalization of the you-know-what.

    Could they see an upswing in HR's? Sure. But I wouldn't expect much. I could see Adams getting substantially more. But I don't think you'll see an increase from Molina or Holliday...and you lost a bunch with Beltran. So for the team overall...I think they'll stay pretty close to where they were with HR's.

    With their pitching, yes...Wainwright is a true ace. No doubt. But I look at Miller & Wacha as strugging in their second years, I see Lynn as a #4 starter, and Kelly as a AAAA starter. Their ace is better than our ace IMO...but we're better at all the other 4 slots...by a large margin. The bullpen, same deal. They're planning on leaning heavily on some rookies. That may or may not work out. I'll take our pen any day of the week. Plus, all of OUR pitching gets the added benefit of having a gold-laced defense lining up behind it every game.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  11. #68
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    These threads are going to pop up repeatedly because the Reds are going to get a lot of bad pre-season reviews.

    They lost a key player, they fell short last year, and they spent the off-season mostly compiling minor leaguers.

    Agree, disagree, whatever, but I hope we're not going to start trashing everybody who thinks the team will regress. It's a realistic possibility. And it's also a realistic possibility that the team will have good health and luck and do well.

    It's a situation that could go either way, but just expect a number of pre-season articles to be pessimistic after a lackluster off-season.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-28-2014 at 12:22 PM.

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  13. #69
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    A few things.

    I do put stock into sophomore slumps. MLB players/teams do adapt to rookies and rookies tend to find it difficult to adjust back quickly. So no, I don't expect to see big seasons from Miller, Wacha, Rosenthal & Martinez.

    I really think Cards fans will be regretting the Peralta signing. I don't care for his defense and I think his bat is PED enhanced fool's gold.

    You can expect to start seeing declining offense from both Holliday and Molina as age and wear n' tear take its toll.

    And of course you should expect to see alot of those runs disappear with the normalization of the you-know-what.

    Could they see an upswing in HR's? Sure. But I wouldn't expect much. I could see Adams getting substantially more. But I don't think you'll see an increase from Molina or Holliday...and you lost a bunch with Beltran. So for the team overall...I think they'll stay pretty close to where they were with HR's.

    With their pitching, yes...Wainwright is a true ace. No doubt. But I look at Miller & Wacha as strugging in their second years, I see Lynn as a #4 starter, and Kelly as a AAAA starter. Their ace is better than our ace IMO...but we're better at all the other 4 slots...by a large margin. The bullpen, same deal. They're planning on leaning heavily on some rookies. That may or may not work out. I'll take our pen any day of the week. Plus, all of OUR pitching gets the added benefit of having a gold-laced defense lining up behind it every game.
    1. I am not sure why the use of "you". I am not a Cards fan

    I dont understand the "sophomore slump" talk from us and in the same breath talk about how good Cingrani is going to be this year. There is NO basis for any of these pitchers regressing.

    Kozma had the lowest OPS of any full time player in baseball last year. To think Peralta is a downgrade is ridiculous. His 2013 numbers werent PED induced and they were pretty good.

    You expect Holliday and Molina to regress because of age yet everyone on here expects BP and Ludwick to get better. ANd then you say the loss of Beltran will hurt them. He will be 37. Wouldnt you consider it a good move to get rid of someone who is aging for someone younger?

    I believe we will make the playoffs. But to suggest we are in a better position at this time than the Cardinals is very homerific. And to think they are worse than the Brewers is an unreal stretch.

  14. #70
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Of our 4 starters, (excluding Cingrani) only Bailey had a worse sophomore season than rookie season. And he didnt have a good rookie season to begin with. I just dont buy into the "sophomore slump"

  15. #71
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    His 2013 AL Projections. I do not see how his predictions hold any more water than a random fans. Luckily for them the Red Sox were living in a fantasy world last season
    I've been as critical as anyone about this offseason, but even I don't take the Reds out of contention for a Wildcard. In order to compete for a division title though is expecting a lot from the existing lineup.

    IMO, in order to compete the Reds would need Hamilton to manage an OBP of at least .320-.330 and two of the following to occur - Ludwick and/or Frazier returning to 2012 form and/or Cozart and/or Mesoraco nearing their 2011 minor league numbers. Even at that, there's not much room for error. One DL stay of any duration to anyone in the starting eight would be very damaging considering the lack of upper level prospects and the poor quality of those in reserve.

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  17. #72
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    So why should Walt Jocketty and the FO be blamed for not doing anything because there are no teams out there like the Houston Astros who are willing to trade Joe Morgan in return for the "Tommy Helms" on this team. It takes two to tango, but no one wants to dance.

    I understand the frustration. But Walt cannot force any GM into making a deal.
    I don't blame any particular person, I don't know who is making the critical decisions here, owners, GM, other staff people, whatever.

    But ultimately it is the job of "management" to improve the team. And to find ways to improve the team.

    It's easy enough to say that there were no matches, or teams asked for too much, or the Reds have no money, etc. But "management" does not distinguish itself by repeating excuses, it distinguishes itself by overcoming excuses.

    Now, I'm not ready to reach any conclusion about the Reds' "management" because it did change virtually the whole coaching staff. The team maybe will play much differently and to better effect. The Reds have health reports on players and maybe things will go well.

    But if not, in looking back on this off-season, I won't be satisfied by the reasons given. IMO this team has taken a gamble by sitting virtually still for thirteen months and I hope they prove to have had good reason for it.

  18. #73
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by indyscott View Post
    1. I am not sure why the use of "you". I am not a Cards fan

    I dont understand the "sophomore slump" talk from us and in the same breath talk about how good Cingrani is going to be this year. There is NO basis for any of these pitchers regressing.
    Agreed. I don't think Cingrani will be as good as last year. But he's our #5 IMO and still better than the Cards #5. It's also why Frazier's struggles last year didn't surprise me.

    Kozma had the lowest OPS of any full time player in baseball last year. To think Peralta is a downgrade is ridiculous. His 2013 numbers werent PED induced and they were pretty good.
    I'm not saying he won't be an upgrade. Just not the kind of one they're thinking of. Yes his 2013 numbers were good. Look at his 2012 numbers. His 2011 was good too. Look prior to that season. He's had 2 good seasons in his career that stand out from the rest. Add into that his defense...it won't surprise me to see a .700 bat or worse and subpar defense. That's not the huge upgrade they're thinking they're getting.

    You expect Holliday and Molina to regress because of age yet everyone on here expects BP and Ludwick to get better. ANd then you say the loss of Beltran will hurt them. He will be 37. Wouldnt you consider it a good move to get rid of someone who is aging for someone younger?
    I'm saying that those guys have been trending up for years and have begun to level off...I certainly don't expect to see an uptick in HR's from either. And their BABIP and BA/RISP are both due for correction. As for BP and Ludwick...I don't think Ludwick comes close to his great years...or even his good one with the Reds. But I do think he'll be an improvement over what we got out of LF last season. Phillips, I think he's reached his peak. So from here on out I expect to start seeing some offensive decline. But I don't think that's what we saw last season. I think last season's dropoff was more severe than it should've been due to the injury. So I expect to see an increase over last season's numbers...but not a full return to his career norms. Just better than last year. As for Beltran...I don't think his loss will "hurt" them per se. I just think the loss of his HR numbers might not be as easily replaced as some think.

    I believe we will make the playoffs. But to suggest we are in a better position at this time than the Cardinals is very homerific. And to think they are worse than the Brewers is an unreal stretch.
    Sorry about the "you". A bad habit of mine. Sorry.

    I'm not saying that they're worse than the Brewers. I'm saying it wouldn't surprise me if things go RIGHT for the Crew and WRONG for the Cards that they flip-flop in the standings. The worst aspect of the Brewers was their pitching. That's improved a LOT IMO. And the offense which was OK last season should get a huge boost from injured/suspended guys returning. My point is I think the Brewers are more of a threat than the Pirates and more dangerous than many think. Lots of people are writing them off and ignoring them. That's a mistake IMO.

    As for us being in a better position than the Cards...agree to disagree I'd say. I think we all know by now that I'm always going to be guilty of being "homerific". But there are legitimate reasons this year to expect a reversal of fortunes from those 2 clubs.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  19. #74
    Arbiter of Good Taste OGB's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    I can't think of a single acquisition I would've wanted the Reds to make (with the benefit of hindsight, seeing what certain players signed for) other than trading for Fowler. As far as that's concerned, we have no idea if he was ever even shopped in the Reds direction.

    Come to think of it, I can't recall any forum members bemoaning the lack of a specific move*, just a lack of moves in general.

    *with the exception of Fowler and the few people who thought it would be prudent to spend $170 mil on Choo
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.

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  21. #75
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds are not a contending team.

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    If your point is we have to be objective, then it is incorrect. No one has to be objective. It is not our job to talk about baseball. We can be as partial as we like.
    Thank you. That was the thing that leaped out to me reading the original post. "Have" to? Or else what?

    Look, I enjoy the analytical stuff, and I know what the projection consensus says and it says the team is taking a step back. But we're fans here. I don't suffer from delusions of grandeur that I actually run the team or that my opinions and attitudes have any effect on how the Reds play. The people employed by the Reds need to be objective. I'm entitled to have whatever level of optimism I darn well feel like having. It's not as if my enjoyment of the 2014 season will be enhanced if I go into it thinking we're going to suck and the playoffs are a pipe dream.
    Not all who wander are lost

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