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Thread: Keith Law Top 100

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    Keith Law Top 100

    Insider only content, but Stephenson at 29 and Hamilton at 52.

    No Ervin or Winker, which again to me is surprising- particularly Ervin. I think both of them belong in the top 100 conversation, and hopefully will be by the end of the year, if not sooner.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Insider only content, but Stephenson at 29 and Hamilton at 52.

    No Ervin or Winker, which again to me is surprising- particularly Ervin. I think both of them belong in the top 100 conversation, and hopefully will be by the end of the year, if not sooner.
    I can't fathom there being 28 prospects I would rather have than Robert Stephenson.

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I can't fathom there being 28 prospects I would rather have than Robert Stephenson.
    I just called him out on Twitter.

    I said "How can you argue there are 28 better prospects than Stephenson? That's a clown ranking, bro!"

    and he replied "Quite easily, actually."

    I replied "I find that hard to believe. Not many pitchers can throw 98 mph with a curve and a changeup."

    Update: Law said "Yeah, actually quite a few can. Plus Stephenson's CH is well behind his other pitches."

    How do you like me now, Keith Law?!!

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    I've got Stephenson, Hamilton, and Ervin all ahead of Winker on my list but I think the guy these lists are missing on the worst is Winker: 19 year old with already some HR power and 100 pts of non BA driven OBP. 63 W to 75K! Terrific combination of skills. I don't know the whole universe of prospects but that surely looks like a guy worthy of getting into the top 100 conversation at least.

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I just called him out on Twitter.

    I said "How can you argue there are 28 better prospects than Stephenson? That's a clown ranking, bro!"

    and he replied "Quite easily, actually."

    I replied "I find that hard to believe. Not many pitchers can throw 98 mph with a curve and a changeup."

    Update: Law said "Yeah, actually quite a few can. Plus Stephenson's CH is well behind his other pitches."

    How do you like me now, Keith Law?!!
    Wait, a guys third pitch isn't a plus or plus-plus pitch like his #1 and #2 are? Shocking. I would like to see this pitcher that is in the minor leagues who has three 65+ pitches. I haven't seen him yet because if he existed, he wouldn't still be in the minors.

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Wait, a guys third pitch isn't a plus or plus-plus pitch like his #1 and #2 are? Shocking. I would like to see this pitcher that is in the minor leagues who has three 65+ pitches. I haven't seen him yet because if he existed, he wouldn't still be in the minors.
    Yup, I was thinking the same thing. According to Law there are "quite a few, actually."

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Stephenson throws 94-98 and has a curveball that is "unhittable by righties" according to Law. 12 pitchers rank higher than him.

    Guys, strap in. Baseball is going to be full of low scoring games really soon.

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Law placed Castellanos at #32 - that surprises me. Apparently after ranking Cast as the 32nd best prospect, he goes on to say he thinks he will bat .290-.300 with 25-30 home runs on average. There are 31 prospects that he expects to have better seasons than .295 and 28 home runs? There are not many major leaguers that do that.

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I've got Stephenson, Hamilton, and Ervin all ahead of Winker on my list but I think the guy these lists are missing on the worst is Winker: 19 year old with already some HR power and 100 pts of non BA driven OBP. 63 W to 75K! Terrific combination of skills. I don't know the whole universe of prospects but that surely looks like a guy worthy of getting into the top 100 conversation at least.
    They aren't ranking Winker because he's a pedestrian athlete. He's a skilled hitter who controls the strikezone incredibly well for a teenager, but his tools don't wow anybody.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Wait, a guys third pitch isn't a plus or plus-plus pitch like his #1 and #2 are? Shocking. I would like to see this pitcher that is in the minor leagues who has three 65+ pitches. I haven't seen him yet because if he existed, he wouldn't still be in the minors.
    Sounds like he believes that there are a few with 3 plus pitches. Also, reading into it he is basically saying two outstanding pitches and a change up that has a ways to go. I assume that the change up isn't just not plus, it is well below. For example, Syndgaard is two plus-plus and a solid average. He's ranked 24.

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I've got Stephenson, Hamilton, and Ervin all ahead of Winker on my list but I think the guy these lists are missing on the worst is Winker: 19 year old with already some HR power and 100 pts of non BA driven OBP. 63 W to 75K! Terrific combination of skills. I don't know the whole universe of prospects but that surely looks like a guy worthy of getting into the top 100 conversation at least.
    The problem is that all his value is derived from his bat and with that kind of profile you need to hit a ton to be considered for these type of lists. If he was putting up an .850ish OPS in AA or AAA I'm sure he'd be on the list but I don't think he's a particularly egregious omission at this stage of the game.

    That said, I just can't see making the argument that there are 28 better prospects (or 13 SPs) in the minors better than Stephenson. I can see the argument for taking Bradley or Walker over Stephenson because of proximity and a similar upside but having the likes of Zimmer, Urias or Giolito ahead of him is mind boggling to me.

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Law placed Castellanos at #32 - that surprises me. Apparently after ranking Cast as the 32nd best prospect, he goes on to say he thinks he will bat .290-.300 with 25-30 home runs on average. There are 31 prospects that he expects to have better seasons than .295 and 28 home runs? There are not many major leaguers that do that.
    Don't go looking for consistent logic with Law. He's immune to it.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Sounds like he believes that there are a few with 3 plus pitches. Also, reading into it he is basically saying two outstanding pitches and a change up that has a ways to go. I assume that the change up isn't just not plus, it is well below. For example, Syndgaard is two plus-plus and a solid average. He's ranked 24.
    BP gave Stephenson a 60 on his change up. Callis/Mayo gave it a 50.

    I have seen the pitch. It is at least a 50. It simply can't be bad enough, unless maybe the only time he saw it was in spring training, that you ding him that much.

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Could it be as simple and lame as the fact Stephenson was drafted near the end of the first round and does not have the name recognition as some of these other guys?
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 01-30-2014 at 08:42 AM.

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    Re: Keith Law Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Could it be as a simple and lame as the fact Stephenson was drafted near the end of the first round and does not have the name recognition as some of these other guys?
    At this point, no. After the 2012 season, sure.


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