I think people are overlooking what replacement level is.Originally Posted by wlf WV
Last year among others Lucas Harrell, Roy Halladay, Barry Zito, and Ryan Vogelsong were below replacement level.
Find a true 0.0 WAR replacement level pitcher over 30 starts and yeah, Arroyo probably is only about a win better than them over a season.
Now there is a bit of uniqueness with Arroyo so I'd allow a bit of give with his numbers, but let's not make him into something he wasn't.
I think replacement level varies greatly from team to team. The Yankees seem to use teams like the Royals and Astros to replace their players that get hurt, while teams like the Reds can only use whoever is at AAA. And whoever is at AAA for the Reds varies itself greatly from year to year.
I understand how the theoretical replacement level player works for WAR, and it works to provide a very broad, general baseline. However, it doesn't truly reflect how valuable an individual player actually is to his specific team.
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OGB (02-10-2014),Old school 1983 (02-07-2014),Sea Ray (02-07-2014)
The big problem WAR has in regards to evaluating Arroyo's value, is that Arroyo has consistently out performed his FIP his entire career. I think at this point, a rational assumption can be made that Arroyo is one of those pitchers whose ERA is more reflective of his value and production than his FIP. That means he's likely worth much more than what WAR says.
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Chuckie (02-07-2014)
Arroyo to D-Backs, says Ken Rosenthal.
Award Winning Baseball Player
Bronson will love pitching out west in some of those giant parks. Good for him.
Good for Bronson. Should be a good fit for him out west. 2 years $19 mil (with an $11 mil option) is no chump change.
2 years $23.5M guaranteed - $9.5M in 2014 and 2015 with an $11M option for 2016 and $4.5M buyout.
So wait, should we have made him a qualifying offer?
Go BLUE!!!
Didn't see the $4.5 mil buyout on the option at first. $23.5 mil for 2 years is even less chump change.
BA got a much better deal than I expected.
While I was against a qualifying offer, based on this contract, the $14 million for one year would have been about market price.
Shows that (assuming the Reds had the money to spend) the qualifying offer decision was a close call on its merits.
Last edited by Kc61; 02-07-2014 at 05:42 PM.
If they HAD made a qualifying offer:
1. Arroyo would not have got such a good deal since signing team would lose a pick.
2. Arroyo likely would have accepted that offer.
__________________
"I think we’re starting to get to the point where people are starting to get tired of this stretch of ball,” Votto said. “I think something needs to start changing and start going in a different direction. I’m going to do my part to help make that change.”
All true, but I think the key issue is whether $14 million for one year of Arroyo would have been good for the Reds or bad for the Reds. Was that a fair number for one year of BA.
In Choo's case, it would have been good for the Reds. He's worth more.
In Arroyo's case, it's a close call. Based on the DBacks contract, Arroyo is worth about $14 million for a year (including the buyout). So on its merits, had the Reds made a QO, and had Arroyo accepted, they would have received roughly equivalent value. It would have been a fair number, although no bargain, for the team.
But of course this does not factor in the Reds' budget. Since it was so tight, I assume that $14 million for Arroyo would have been a serious problem for them. So that's the deciding factor.
Last edited by Kc61; 02-07-2014 at 05:56 PM.
No, you're not getting it. I know Reynolds is less than 0 WAR hence the fact that Arroyo would win us more games replacing him than he would a 0WAR player
I mean over a "season" . Arroyo means 0.8 wins for a season assuming he replaces a 0WAR pitcher. My point is that he might realistically be replacing Greg Reynolds which would make him much more valuable
Happy for Bronson, and I wish him well in Arizona.
I'm guessing this may be similar to the deferred deal he told the Reds he wasn't interested in back in October. He also said he would have jumped on the QO, because of the guarantee.
Hidden in the fine print: Arizona is only on the hook for the buyout if Bronson refrains from starring in any JTM-style commercials for the life of the contract.
757690 (02-07-2014),CmdrCody (02-08-2014),Old school 1983 (02-07-2014)
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