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Thread: Vegas Over/Unders

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Vegas Over/Unders

    Here's the first set of over/unders I've seen. Keeping in mind that Vegas is in the business of balancing bets, not predicting results, these still feel more "right" than some of the projection standings we've seen.

    Here's the list with my "bet":
    Code:
    Los Angeles Dodgers 	92.5	Over
    Detroit Tigers 		91.5	Under
    Washington Nationals 	90.5	Over
    St. Louis Cardinals 	90.5	Over
    Tampa Bay Rays 		88.5	Over
    Boston Red Sox 		87.5	Under
    Cincinnati Reds 	87.5	Over
    San Francisco Giants 	86.5	Under
    Texas Rangers 		86.5	Over
    Atlanta Braves 		86.5	Over
    Oakland A’s 		86.5 	Under
    Pittsburgh Pirates 	86.5 	Under
    Kansas City Royals 	85.5	Over
    Los Angeles Angels 	84.5	Under
    New York Yankees 	83.5	Over
    Cleveland Indians	82.5	Under
    Seattle Mariners 	81.5	Under
    Arizona Diamondbacks 	81.0	Under
    Baltimore Orioles 	80.5	Under
    Milwaukee Brewers 	78.5	Over
    Philadelphia Phillies 	78.0	Under
    Toronto Blue Jays 	77.5	Over
    Colorado Rockies 	76.5	Under
    San Diego Padres 	76.5	Over
    Chicago White Sox 	76.5	Over
    New York Mets 		71.5	Under
    Miami Marlins 		66.5	Under
    Chicago Cubs 		65.5	Over
    Minnesota Twins 	65.5	Over
    Houston Astros 		57.5	Over
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    I might throw $20 on the AAAstros just for the *tiny* chance it works out.

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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Keeping in mind that Vegas is in the business of balancing bets, not predicting results, these still feel more "right" than some of the projection standings we've seen.
    I'm not sure thats 100% true. While a parimutual system is totally based on how the public bets, I think a small part of the line is based on how the oddsmaker predicts the final result. Casinos and sportsbooks profit when they have to pay out less than they receive in bets. So granted, while their goal is to ensure that they balance the betting and collect their vig, remeber, the oddsmakes are still gamblers.
    In any event its amazing how often the line does nail the final result.
    That being said I'll take Washington and the under Alex.

  6. #4
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Just a couple:

    Dodgers 92.5 under
    Too much has to go right in order to win that many games.

    Giants 86.5 under
    I don't buy the Giants.

    Pirates 86.5 under
    I can see a pretty big regression this season. I would bet under until about 81.

    DBacks 81 over
    Better than .500 team to me.

    Chicago Cubs 65.5 over
    I don't think they that bad.

    Houston Astros 57.5 over
    I don't see the Astros being historically bad again.

    Reds 87.5 I wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot stick. That is a pretty good number. I would predict them to win 86(ish) games but I wouldn't be the under.

  7. #5
    Member tomnuetten's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Iīm with bucksfan on every bet beside the dodgers...

    I do believe theyīll win 91-94 games, thatīs to close to bet for me.
    I wouldnīt bet on the reds either. First I think the line is good and second I donīt bet on my favourite teams => canīt be objective enough

  8. #6
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Vegas really has to put their money where their mouth is with predictions, so I am very happy to see that the Reds' have the seventh highest over-under.

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  10. #7
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Vegas tries to balance bets, but they also try to be as close to accurate as possible. The smarts out there use terrific analysis to make wagers, and Vegas keeps an eye on the people they trust. They're not going to sacrifice accuracy for even wagers.

    I guess the moral of the story is this: Vegas is living in Redszone' fantasy land
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    I'm considering putting a couple hundred on the Astros. It's hard to lose 104 games.

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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    I'm considering putting a couple hundred on the Astros. It's hard to lose 104 games.

    but then you're going to have to spend the summer following and rooting for the astros. is It worth the aggravation?

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  16. #10
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    I'm considering putting a couple hundred on the Astros. It's hard to lose 104 games.
    Unless you are the Astros

    Here are the last 14 seasons

    Code:
    LOSSES                        YEAR      L     
    1    Tigers                   2003      119   
    T2   Diamondbacks             2004      111   
    T2   Astros                   2013      111   
    4    Astros                   2012      107   
    T5   Royals                   2005      106   
    T5   Tigers                   2002      106   
    T5   Brewers                  2002      106   
    T5   Rays                     2002      106   
    T5   Astros                   2011      106   
    10   Pirates                  2010      105   
    11   Royals                   2004      104

  17. #11
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    Vegas really has to put their money where their mouth is with predictions, so I am very happy to see that the Reds' have the seventh highest over-under.
    Yeah, but they still have them fourth in the NL. I'd put the Braves ahead of them as well, with the D-Backs neck-and-neck and the Bucs not far behind for the final Wildcard.

  18. #12
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    The oddsmakers set an opening line then quickly adjust the line as the bets start rolling in. Their goal is to get exactly half the money on each side of the betting line, that way they are guaranteed to make a profit.

    So ultimately it is the gamblers that set the lines with their wallets.

  19. #13
    Member tomnuetten's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    The oddsmakers set an opening line then quickly adjust the line as the bets start rolling in. Their goal is to get exactly half the money on each side of the betting line, that way they are guaranteed to make a profit.

    So ultimately it is the gamblers that set the lines with their wallets.
    youīre right, but 1) the opening line is still a guess what the result will be and 2) the intelligence of the masses lead to a pretty good line

    so itīs not that bad to look at those lines

  20. #14
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Looks like we host a Wild Card game against the winner of the tie-breaker between Atlanta, Pittsburgh and San Francisco. Then move on to face the Dodgers. May as well book that October Disney trip now.

  21. #15
    Worth The Wait
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    Re: Vegas Over/Unders

    Season over/under bets are by far the best bets in the sports world. It takes luck (mostly) out of the equation. If you really have a strong feeling one way or the other on a team, you can place your bet and not get toasted by a bad beat.

    In the NFL this year for example, I had the Chiefs pegged early as an OVER. I believe they were at 6.5.... They won that bet by mid season.

    But I didn't cash in because I didn't actually place the bet. And therein lies the issues with futures bets--- it takes patience. And "patience" and "gambling" don't exactly go hand in hand-- especially when most people are in it for the action in the first place.

    Betting $100 on the Astros might be a smart move. But my Goodness that is a long time to wait to try and win $100.


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