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View Poll Results: Who is the Reds #30th and 31st Best Prospects for 2014

Voters
32. You may not vote on this poll
  • Allen, James P-A+

    0 0%
  • Armstrong, Mark P-Az

    8 25.00%
  • Aybar, Manny P-AZL

    0 0%
  • Boyles, Ty P-Az

    2 6.25%
  • Brattvet, Scott P-R

    0 0%
  • Chacin, Alejandro P-A

    2 6.25%
  • Christiani, Nick P-AAA/ML

    1 3.13%
  • Crabbe, Tim P-AAA

    0 0%
  • Daal, Carlton SS-R

    0 0%
  • Dennhardt, Michael RHP-A+

    0 0%
  • Dennick, Ryan LHP-AAA

    0 0%
  • Diaz, Pedro P-R/A

    0 0%
  • Duran, Juan OF-A+

    6 18.75%
  • Fellhaeur, Josh OF-AAA

    0 0%
  • Freeman, Justin P-AAA/ML

    0 0%
  • Gelalich, Jeff OF-A

    0 0%
  • Gonzalez, Luis P-DSL

    1 3.13%
  • Green, Brodie 2B-AA

    0 0%
  • Guzman, Jose P-R

    0 0%
  • Hayes, Drew P-AA

    0 0%
  • Johnson, Jake P-A+

    0 0%
  • Jones, Chad P-R

    0 0%
  • Klimesh, Ben P-A+

    0 0%
  • LaMarre, Ryan OF -AA/AAA

    5 15.63%
  • Langfield, Dan P -R

    3 9.38%
  • Lohman, Devin 2B-AA

    0 0%
  • Long, Shedric C-Az

    0 0%
  • Mantoni, Joe P-R

    0 0%
  • Manno, Chris P-AA

    0 0%
  • Matthews, Jon OF-A

    0 0%
  • Mcgruder, Jamodrick 2b/LF-A+

    0 0%
  • Muhammed, El Hajj P - A+

    1 3.13%
  • O'Brien, Mikey P-AA

    0 0%
  • Pearl, Brian P-AA

    0 0%
  • Peralta, Wandy P-A

    0 0%
  • Perez, Juan SS-A+

    0 0%
  • Rachal, Avain 2B-R

    1 3.13%
  • Rahier, Tanner 3b-A

    5 15.63%
  • Reynoso, Jonathan OF-R

    1 3.13%
  • Rodriguez, Henry 2B-AAA

    1 3.13%
  • Romano, Sal P-A

    3 9.38%
  • Rosa, Gabriel OF-R

    8 25.00%
  • Selsky, Steve OF-A+/AA

    0 0%
  • Silva, Juan OF-A+

    3 9.38%
  • Silverio, Juan 3B-A+/AA

    0 0%
  • Smith, Bryson OF-AA

    0 0%
  • Smith, Josh P-AA

    2 6.25%
  • Soto, Neftali 3B/1B AAA/ML

    4 12.50%
  • Stephens, Jackson P-A

    5 15.63%
  • Thompson, Cory SS-Az

    0 0%
  • Uxa, Logan 1B-Az/A+

    0 0%
  • Vidal, David 3B-A+/AA

    0 0%
  • Villarreal, Pedro P-AAA/ML

    0 0%
  • Vincej, Zach SS-A

    0 0%
  • Walczak, Jamie P-AA

    0 0%
  • Washington, Ty 2B-R

    0 0%
  • Weiss, Zack P-R

    0 0%
  • Williamson, Fabian P-AA

    0 0%
  • Wright, Daniel P-R

    0 0%
  • Wright, Ryan 2B-OF

    0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

  1. #16
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    As I understand it, he's got one tool (power). I'm going to need to see some OB outside the Cali League before I buy into Duran having a meaningful future. I'm worried he's a Neftali Soto wannabe.
    I can understand Duran not making the top 20.

    At pick 30, given his power, his good season, his improvement in the K/BB area, his youth and advanced level, the Reds' confidence in putting him on the 40, I think it's only explanable that he's not favored on RedsZone due to some bad buzz.

    I remember how Zack Cozart was disfavored because of an early bad rep. He's now the starting Reds shortstop.

    Save Juan.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-04-2014 at 10:47 AM.

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I can understand Duran not making the top 20.

    At pick 30, given his power, his good season, his improvement in the K/BB area, his youth and advanced level, the Reds' confidence in putting him on the 40, I think it's only explanable that he's not favored on RedsZone due to some bad buzz.

    I remember how Zack Cozart was disfavored because of an early bad rep. He's now the starting Reds shortstop.

    Save Juan.
    Zack Cozart had a position to play.

    Juan Duran.... no one has a clue where he can play defensively. Huge difference.

  4. #18
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Zack Cozart had a position to play.

    Juan Duran.... no one has a clue where he can play defensively. Huge difference.
    You're making my point. Zack Cozart did have a position to play, and does so superbly, and also had enough of a bat to be a major league starter.

    From the day he was drafted, though, Zack was disfavored on this forum. Go back and read the remarks when he was drafted. He had bad buzz. And IMO so does Duran.

    They are obviously very different prospects. But I will say that Duran would at minimum have trade value to an AL team. So he isn't without value and IMO has more value than several others already selected this year.

    And Duran has shown much improvement, so he's not just some stagnant piece of raw potential. In a different environment, I think he's in the top 25 on the list. Just my opinion.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-04-2014 at 11:30 AM.

  5. #19
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    You're making my point. Zack Cozart did have a position to play, and does so superbly, and also had enough of a bat to be a major league starter.

    From the day he was drafted, though, Zack was disfavored on this forum. Go back and read the remarks when he was drafted. He had bad buzz. And IMO so does Duran.

    I'm not comparing them as prospects. But I will say that Duran would at minimum have trade value to an AL team. So he isn't without value and IMO has more value than several others already selected.

    And Duran has shown much improvement, so he's not just some stagnant piece of raw potential. In a different environment, I think he's about 25 on the list. Just my opinion.
    I must be missing your point if I made it for you, because I am really confused.

  6. #20
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I must be missing your point if I made it for you, because I am really confused.
    My point is not that Cozart and Duran are the same kinds of prospects. Just that each has been affected in these polls by bad buzz around here.

    I think Cozart always had much more value than we gave him credit for on RedsZone. I think the same about Duran.

  7. #21
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    My point is not that Cozart and Duran are the same kinds of prospects. Just that each has been affected in these polls by bad buzz around here.

    I think Cozart always had much more value than we gave him credit for on RedsZone. I think the same about Duran.
    Thanks for explaining it. It makes a lot more sense now. I'm going on about 3 hours of hospital couch sleep (a bed or rocks would probably be equally as comfortable), so I am not working at full capacity right now.

  8. #22
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Thanks for explaining it. It makes a lot more sense now. I'm going on about 3 hours of hospital couch sleep (a bed or rocks would probably be equally as comfortable), so I am not working at full capacity right now.
    Hope everything works out ok. You're views are always appreciated.

  9. #23
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    I have Duran in my top 30 but I keep voting for Chacin and Rosa because I have both of them ahead of Duran. In one crucial category Duran has not progressed from 2008 on. His K's per AB are remarkably consistent at about an unacceptable--to me, at least--1 in 3. So, and I guess this is directed especially to KC, he slides increasingly into the category of those unlikely to have any kind of major league career--the most important contrary piece of evidence being his being on the 40 man roster (though that could also be accounted for by the $ already expended on him).

  10. #24
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    As Doug notes, Duran's biggest problem is a lack of defensive position. If he can get the footwork then 1st is probably his most likely landing place. His K rate doesn't bother me that much if it doesn't increase anymore and if he can keep last season's walk rate or improve it. I don't have a problem with Duran a bit earlier or around 30-35. There are just so many high potential lower level prospects still left.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

  11. #25
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I have Duran in my top 30 but I keep voting for Chacin and Rosa because I have both of them ahead of Duran. In one crucial category Duran has not progressed from 2008 on. His K's per AB are remarkably consistent at about an unacceptable--to me, at least--1 in 3. So, and I guess this is directed especially to KC, he slides increasingly into the category of those unlikely to have any kind of major league career--the most important contrary piece of evidence being his being on the 40 man roster (though that could also be accounted for by the $ already expended on him).
    I don't agree because Duran's K percentage meaningfully improved this past year, as did his walk percentage.

    In 2012, Bakersfield, in 458 PAs he fanned 151 times.
    In 2013, Bakersfield, in 456 PAs he fanned 134 times. Now under 30%.

    Also, the BB rate improved. In 2012, he walked 26 times. In 2013 he walked 45 times in roughly the same number of PAs.

    And while he K'd less, and he BB'd more, his power output increased. In other words he didn't simply slap the ball and give up power. Instead he went from 12 homers to 20 and stayed at 18 combining doubles and triples.

    As a young power hitter, it's not unusual that Duran Ks often at this point. What is unusual is that he isn't just stagnant. He is definitely improving both in selectivity and production.

    We're talking about being selected in the top 30, if the guy was perfect he'd be much higher. I just don't see him falling this far.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-04-2014 at 03:38 PM.

  12. #26
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    Re: Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #30th & 31st

    Could easily be wrong--I've never even seen him play--but my impression is that Duran's flaws are predominant to the point of disqualifying him as a major-league possibility. I get the sense that he's very, perhaps hopelessly, awkward in the field, and as a hitter has no chance against breaking stuff.

    That said, I acknowledge that the Reds must feel differently or they wouldn't have protected him on the 40-man. So maybe his shortcomings are not insurmountable. No question, the power is there.


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