Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 36

Thread: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

  1. #16
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    2,229

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    The year before(1999) the Reds had lost a one game playoff to the Mets and lost 5-0. I can understand that Reds management thought Ken would put them over the top. I do think it's hyperbole that the Mariners would have won the trade even if Ken wasn't injured. He was considered by some the best player in baseball at the time, and he gave the Reds a hometown discount. If anything, you can put it on the pitching, the pitching was a bit hit and miss during his time with the Reds.
    The whole world thought that. Especiallly since the Reds were sending back the player Griffey was replacing, Brett Tomko, and a prospect. Except Dave Cameron evidently. 15 years later.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #17
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    8,448

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    The whole world thought that. Especiallly since the Reds were sending back the player Griffey was replacing, Brett Tomko, and a prospect. Except Dave Cameron evidently. 15 years later.

    Again, all this is about is one post re-assessing the dominant narrative of something that happened 15 years ago.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  4. #18
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,497

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    While I loved watching Jr. play for the Reds, I never liked the trade from day one, and not for the reasons Cameron makes. He makes decent points, but misses the biggest one.

    The Reds traded for one year of Griffey, and way overpaid. He was going to be a free agent the next year and said that he was going to sign with the Reds when became one.

    Since the Reds were so close to making the playoffs the year before, it made sense to trade for him, but they were only trading for the rights to him for one year. The Mariners didn't have any other trade partners for him, so really, the Reds could have named their price for him. It should have been a package of prospects, and that's it.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #19
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    14,317

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    I'd make the Griffey trade every day of the week, twice on Saturday, and multiple times on Sunday.

    It brought tremendous fan interest. It elevated the team's talent level until injuries interfered. It provided an anchor player who put the Reds on the map for a number of years.

    The problem with a Griffey trade or a Votto contract is you're dealing with a single human being who can get hurt or lose abilities. So it's a risk. But I think history would show that great players win championships and if you have the chance to get one, you do it.

    In short: this kind of trade isn't measured by a simple WAR calculation or salary analysis. It involves many other factors.

    I remember the Mariners' statements about trading Griff. They weren't real happy about it.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-06-2014 at 01:03 PM.

  6. Likes:

    RadfordVA (02-06-2014)

  7. #20
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    14,317

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    While I loved watching Jr. play for the Reds, I never liked the trade from day one, and not for the reasons Cameron makes. He makes decent points, but misses the biggest one.

    The Reds traded for one year of Griffey, and way overpaid. He was going to be a free agent the next year and said that he was going to sign with the Reds when became one.

    Since the Reds were so close to making the playoffs the year before, it made sense to trade for him, but they were only trading for the rights to him for one year. The Mariners didn't have any other trade partners for him, so really, the Reds could have named their price for him. It should have been a package of prospects, and that's it.
    I don't agree that the Reds, real world, were only acquiring one year of Griffey. Real world they knew he would sign for longer. Everyone knew it. The one-year thing was theoretical, but not real.

    As for the trade, the Reds might have avoided trading Cameron, but maybe not. The Mariners probably needed one good MLB player to save face. The Reds perhaps could have played hardball and come away cheaper, I don't think it's a given.

  8. #21
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,497

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I don't agree that the Reds, real world, were only acquiring one year of Griffey. Real world they knew he would sign for longer. Everyone knew it. The one-year thing was theoretical, but not real.

    As for the trade, the Reds might have avoided trading Cameron, but maybe not. The Mariners probably needed one good MLB player to save face. The Reds perhaps could have played hardball and come away cheaper, I don't think it's a given.
    One reason why the Mariners were trading him a year early, was because Jr. was making it clear he was unhappy in Seattle and wanted to be traded to the Reds. They could have kept him for that last year, but it wouldn't had been pretty.

    Like I said, I loved having Griffey as a Reds, and as a fan, I'm glad the made the trade and I do think it was worth it. I just think Bowden could have played hardball and gotten a much better deal.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #22
    Member Z-Fly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    571

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    If they would have kept Cameron, where would he have played? Griffey wouldn't have moved out of center for Cameron.
    WHEN DOES IT STOP!?!?

  10. #23
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,181

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    I was doing a little thinking about alternate scenarios and ended up posting this over on the Fangraphs thread:

    The Reds clearly lost the trade in terms of production and surplus value. That alternate scenario is easy to play out. Let's imagine another, completely reasonable scenario:

    The Reds desperately want Junior. But they realize they can have him after 2000 through FA; no trade required. Not wanting to go anywhere else, Junior rescinds his trade request and stays in Seattle in 2000.

    Junior puts up the same season he did in Cincy -- ~5.5 WAR (1-2 more than Cameron & Tomko). He's still nursing a hammy (as he did in Cincy), but produces nonetheless. The Mariners squeeze by the A's and win the AL West. With Junior's help, they beat the inferior 87-win Yankees in the ALDS (instead of losing 4-2) and face the Mets in the World Series. It's a tough series, but the Mariners take the crown.

    Now he hits free agency.

    Aug '00: Chipper Jones extends with Atlanta for 8/120 (15.0 AAV)
    Nov '00: Mike Mussina signs with New York for 6/88.5 (14.75 AAV)
    Dec '00: Mike Hampton signs with Colorado for 8/120 (15.125 AAV)
    Dec '00: Manny Ramirez signs with Boston for 8/160 (20.0 AAV)
    Jan '01: Alex Rodriguez signs with Texas for 10/252 (25.2 AAV)
    Feb '01: Derek Jeter extends with New York for 10/189 (18.9 AAV)

    Meanwhile, Griffey and the Reds are at a bit of a standstill in negotiations. Griffey wants to be in Red and will take a hometown discount, but the Reds are extremely budget conscious. Lindner has been playing hardball with all-time Red great Barry Larkin, nearly trading him to the Mets during the 2000 season rather than extend him 3 years (he ended up getting 3/27). The Reds offer Junior 108/9 (12.0 AAV) at the Winter meetings, but Junior is hesitant to sign for less than Chipper and the union requested he wait. But now it's February and everybody is getting anxious. Manny Ramirez, who doesn't even play a premium position, got 20 a year, to say nothing about ARod's crazy 25.

    What does it take to sign him? Sure, he's a year or two older than most of those guys, but he's also still the biggest star in the game, especially coming off a high profile World Series win. I think he's looking at 16+ AAV easy; I wouldn't be shocked by 20 AAV. Let's say he finally signs at what appears to be a reasonable compromise, 9/162 (18 AAV) (Note: In reality, I doubt the Reds actually end up signing him in this scenario, they just wouldn't have offered a price that the union would have let him accept).

    So, in this alternate scenario you have the Reds keeping Cameron, Tomko, etc. Instead of getting 10 wins for 116.5 from Junior, a loss of about $66.5 (13 wins), the Reds get 5 wins for 157.5, a loss of twice that -- $132.5 (26 wins). Keeping Mike Cameron from 2001-03 basically makes up those 13 wins difference, but having Junior costs the Reds big time either way.

    Should the Reds have traded for Junior? In retrospect, of course not. The best scenario for the Reds would have had Junior on the Cardinals, Cubs or Astros. As Reds fan, we wonder what would have happened had he either been healthy or never become a Red. We lament the loss of Cameron. But I think we forget about the other likely scenario where the Reds don't trade for him after 1999, but rather sign him in FA after 2000. Sadly, even being able to keep Cameron, they wouldn't have been any better off.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 02-06-2014 at 04:09 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. Likes:

    757690 (02-06-2014), bigredmechanism (02-06-2014), RadfordVA (02-06-2014), RiverRat13 (02-06-2014)

  12. #24
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,181

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    Another thought that just occurred:

    The money spent on Junior cost the Reds 2-3 wins per season during the '00s. The Reds were horrible throughout the decade. While one can imagine all of the possibilities of life without Junior, the most likely one is that they still would have stunk, only without him.

    And that makes me wonder. Would you rather look back on the lost decade with a broken-down Junior as its poster boy or with Adam Dunn and Eric Milton as its most memorable Reds?

    Better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all, I say.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. Likes:

    bigredmechanism (02-06-2014), hebroncougar (02-06-2014), RedFanAlways1966 (02-06-2014), Tom Servo (02-09-2014)

  14. #25
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,497

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    Great analysis RMR. It shows that these decisions aren't as simple as we think they are.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  15. Likes:

    Revering4Blue (02-07-2014)

  16. #26
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,297

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    I wonder what would have happened if Jr took the same PED's as Cameron did?

  17. #27
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    8,448

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Great analysis RMR. It shows that these decisions aren't as simple as we think they are.
    I agree that it was an excellent analysis. But who says these things are simple? If anything, I think the FG argument shows that they are not as simple as we think they are.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  18. #28
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    19,138

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Another thought that just occurred:

    The money spent on Junior cost the Reds 2-3 wins per season during the '00s. The Reds were horrible throughout the decade. While one can imagine all of the possibilities of life without Junior, the most likely one is that they still would have stunk, only without him.

    And that makes me wonder. Would you rather look back on the lost decade with a broken-down Junior as its poster boy or with Adam Dunn and Eric Milton as its most memorable Reds?

    Better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all, I say.
    I think the point really is that the thinking that orchestrated the JR trade probably is a the kind genius that informs the lost decade playing out like it did. The issue of how Cincy lost that trade big time is old news in Redszone discussions within the archives BTW.

    Then again, I got to overdose on the good Griffey before hos move to Cincy.
    Last edited by jojo; 02-06-2014 at 05:32 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  19. #29
    Stat geek...and proud
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Paris, OH
    Posts
    2,616

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I wonder what would have happened if Jr took the same PED's as Cameron did?
    How do we know he didn't?

  20. Likes:

    jojo (02-09-2014)

  21. #30
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,497

    Re: Fangraphs review the Ken Griffey Jr. trade

    Quote Originally Posted by gilpdawg View Post
    How do we know he didn't?
    Because he sucked when he got older. If Jr. took PED's he should get a refund.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25