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Thread: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

  1. #1
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    PECOTA is back and has the projections for the teams out.

    The Cincinnati Reds are projected to be 83-79, in 2nd place, and 5 games back of the Cardinals. Only the Dodgers are projected to win over 88 games in the NL.

    The Reds team defense is projected as easily the best in the league with only one team, the Diamondbacks, even within 33% of the Reds defensive value.

    To get into player details you need to be a BP subscriber, but the team standings/RS/RA/AVG/OBP/SLG is all free.

    Discuss.

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    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    PECOTA is back and has the projections for the teams out.

    The Cincinnati Reds are projected to be 83-79, in 2nd place, and 5 games back of the Cardinals. Only the Dodgers are projected to win over 88 games in the NL.

    The Reds team defense is projected as easily the best in the league with only one team, the Diamondbacks, even within 33% of the Reds defensive value.

    To get into player details you need to be a BP subscriber, but the team standings/RS/RA/AVG/OBP/SLG is all free.

    Discuss.
    Doug, obviously BP is projecting a big dropoff in centerfield, but is the lower win total also due to projected regression in other players? Hard to for me to believe the Cardinals are also only an 88 win team.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by CySeymour View Post
    Doug, obviously BP is projecting a big dropoff in centerfield, but is the lower win total also due to projected regression in other players? Hard to for me to believe the Cardinals are also only an 88 win team.
    I noted that only one team is over 88 wins for a reason. These projections systems, while are usually solid at getting the order right, is usually pretty light on the team win totals because of the regression. PECOTA actually likes Billy Hamilton to produce quite a bit.... though in a very strange kind of way. The Reds 83 wins were 6th best in the NL, so the system likes the Reds, just doesn't love the Reds.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    I don't think this holds any more weight than other league projections we've seen. Just to rattle off a few of the flaws with the methodologies we're seeing:

    1. A lot of it is "duh" analysis. Teams that did well last season project to be better this season. Well, duh.

    2. Taking player projections designed primarily for fantasy baseball and adding up the WAR for a team projection has proven a fairly poor method of projecting team performance. You'll get about as close by just scribbling on the back of a napkin.

    3. The conservative nature of player projections is what makes it difficult to identify which might be the stand out good or bad teams. PECOTA's got more high and low end projections that, say, Davenport, but we're probably going to see close to 10 teams wit 90+ wins and close to another 10 teams with 90+ losses in reality and that's not showing up in the projections.

    4. Weird teams screw up the models. The Reds are a pitching and defense team in a hitting park. The projection systems generally don't come anywhere close to giving the Reds the team pitching value they've put up the past two seasons. The Giants, a hitting team in a pitching park, also throws its share of monkey wrenches into the projections.

    5. While it's understandable why projection systems don't insert scouting, it leaves a gaping hole when it comes to team projections. The systems also don't look at the team-level picture. The Reds very well might have offensive issues that reduce the team scoring to something less than the sum of its parts. Conversely, the defense might be better than what gets captured in the individual projections and it might have a significant spillover effect on the pitching.
    Last edited by M2; 02-05-2014 at 01:22 PM.
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Whatever the win total, coming in 2nd 5 games behind the Cards sounds exactly right. In other words, a contending team with warts.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    I think 83 is a little low. I am more in the range of 85-87 wins. I think the Reds will be the best team in the NL at preventing runs. A combination of both their solid pitching staff as well as a top tier defensive team.

    In their division I think the Pirates fall back while the Brewers may be closer to .500. I like the Cubs to be a tad better but not much.

    The Reds won 90 games last year, I think the pitching will be better and the defense will be better, maybe to offset the loss of Choo.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    I think the thing to take away is the Reds 5 behind the Cards. I don't find that an unreasonable projection at this time. The win totals are a bit low but the distance behind is about what I'd predict (which has all the weight of a puff of hot air.)
    No - I am not from State Farm!

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Whatever the win total, coming in 2nd 5 games behind the Cards sounds exactly right. In other words, a contending team with warts.
    Exactly a team with warts that can be removed via trades or people stepping up who didn't hit well last year or were injured.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Clearly, PECOTA is living in a fantasy world.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Clearly, PECOTA is living in a fantasy world.
    Sarcasm?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Sarcasm?
    Sarcasm..? Me..? Never
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Looks like a fair analysis to me. While the Reds would miss the playoffs, they would be close.

    The Reds are shown doing very well defensively, which they should. The gain of BH should be a net plus, even with the loss of Hanigan's defense.

    Pitching wise, the big issue is the loss of Arroyo's innings. Last year the team essentially had six starters with Cingrani and when Cueto got hurt Tony C took up much of the slack.

    This year they only have five bona fide major league starters so it will be harder to fill injury slots.

    The Reds are close enough in this analysis that a bit more offense might have gone a long way. Oh, well.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    That is roughly how I see the team. Lower 80's win total most likely, but hopefully some people really step up and the Reds do better than expected.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I noted that only one team is over 88 wins for a reason. These projections systems, while are usually solid at getting the order right, is usually pretty light on the team win totals because of the regression. PECOTA actually likes Billy Hamilton to produce quite a bit.... though in a very strange kind of way. The Reds 83 wins were 6th best in the NL, so the system likes the Reds, just doesn't love the Reds.
    Dougs, out of curousity, what are the factors that seperates the Dodgers so far from the pack? Starting rotation, full year of Puig, healthy Kemp, healthy Hanley?

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Looks like a fair analysis to me. While the Reds would miss the playoffs, they would be close.

    The Reds are shown doing very well defensively, which they should. The gain of BH should be a net plus, even with the loss of Hanigan's defense.

    Pitching wise, the big issue is the loss of Arroyo's innings. Last year the team essentially had six starters with Cingrani and when Cueto got hurt Tony C took up much of the slack.

    This year they only have five bona fide major league starters so it will be harder to fill injury slots.

    The Reds are close enough in this analysis that a bit more offense might have gone a long way. Oh, well.
    They don't necessarily have a Tony Cingrani waiting to take over if a Cueto goes down , but I believe their reserve starting pitching is deeper than it was last year. Cingrani was pretty much the only choice as the sixth starter. This year, I think there will be several guys in the hunt in the event of a rotation injury and that is a good thing.

    As for the record? I could see any where from 83-87. .

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