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Thread: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    They don't necessarily have a Tony Cingrani waiting to take over if a Cueto goes down , but I believe their reserve starting pitching is deeper than it was last year. Cingrani was pretty much the only choice as the sixth starter. This year, I think there will be several guys in the hunt in the event of a rotation injury and that is a good thing.

    As for the record? I could see any where from 83-87.
    Don't sleep on Robert Stephenson being ready at any given point. I am convinced that there was a long stretch of time last year when he would have been very successful in the Major Leagues with the games he was throwing despite being in Dayton. While he will begin the year in AA (likely), and he isn't on the 40-man roster, I don't think they will hesitate to call him up if he is actually ready and a spot opens up.

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  4. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by SporkLover View Post
    Dougs, out of curousity, what are the factors that seperates the Dodgers so far from the pack? Starting rotation, full year of Puig, healthy Kemp, healthy Hanley?
    They are really, really, really stacked with talent. They have seven players making more than $15M per season. SEVEN. And that doesn't count Puig, who was an MVP candidate from the day he stepped onto the field until the end of the year. Oh, and it doesn't count Clayton Kershaw, who is the best pitcher in baseball.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Whatever the win total, coming in 2nd 5 games behind the Cards sounds exactly right. In other words, a contending team with warts.
    The problem with the Reds -- as far as contenders go -- is that they've got a low ceiling (not a lot of candidates to break out with career years, no ML-ready players in the minors that could provide a boost) and a really deep basement (lot of OB-challenged hitters, zero depth for pitching or hitting).
    Championships Matter.
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The problem with the Reds -- as far as contenders go -- is that they've got a low ceiling (not a lot of candidates to break out with career years, no ML-ready players in the minors that could provide a boost) and a really deep basement (lot of OB-challenged hitters, zero depth for pitching or hitting).
    Those be the warts. I'm well aware of em.

  8. #20
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The problem with the Reds -- as far as contenders go -- is that they've got a low ceiling (not a lot of candidates to break out with career years, no ML-ready players in the minors that could provide a boost) and a really deep basement (lot of OB-challenged hitters, zero depth for pitching or hitting).
    Would it surprise anyone if Joey Votto upped his OPS 100 points? His knee, at least according to him, is healthy for the first time in a long time.

    Jay Bruce seems to flirt with consistency more often in terms of his plate approach each year. He gets to a three-ball count an awful lot. If he can figure out how to turn some of those outs into walks with the same thing that got him into those counts, he could break out some.

    Devin Mesoraco has all of the ear marks of a breakout guy. Former top prospect with tools. Should get his first taste of consistent playing time since he skyrocketed up the prospect charts.

    Those are the three I would put on the "potential to break out" group. Not a bunch, but I could see it with any of those three. The rest of the line up though, not so much.

    The prospects, Robert Stephenson aside, are problem still at least a full year away if everything goes right for them.

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  10. #21
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    I'm confused, I thought they weren't going to be contenders...

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Those are the three I would put on the "potential to break out" group. Not a bunch, but I could see it with any of those three. The rest of the line up though, not so much.

    what about hamilton? He is a big question mark and good be the x-factor for the reds season (I donīt expect to much from him in the first year)

    I think some players do have the chance of a little improvement, frazier could be a bit better on the plate. ludwick with a full spring training and a healthy shoulder...

    I donīt expect much improvement from those, but they do have a little chance of upside in my book

  12. #23
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by tomnuetten View Post
    what about hamilton? He is a big question mark and good be the x-factor for the reds season (I donīt expect to much from him in the first year)
    I can't see Hamilton breaking out unless he just rides an insane BABIP. I don't see where he could improve to the point of a breakout. His walk rate or strikeout rate would have to take a big jump to make a real breakout and you just don't see guys double their walk rate or cut their strikeout rates in half over the course of one season. He doesn't have power to grow into for a boost there. Could he be better than some are projecting? Sure. But he isn't going to OPS .800.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I can't see Hamilton breaking out unless he just rides an insane BABIP. I don't see where he could improve to the point of a breakout. His walk rate or strikeout rate would have to take a big jump to make a real breakout and you just don't see guys double their walk rate or cut their strikeout rates in half over the course of one season. He doesn't have power to grow into for a boost there. Could he be better than some are projecting? Sure. But he isn't going to OPS .800.
    What would you expect his BABIP range to be? It seems to me that a lack of power would reduce it, but ++ speed would increase it, especially if he increases his GB rate.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by nmculbreth View Post
    I'm confused, I thought they weren't going to be contenders...
    Contenders for a Wildcard? Sure. For the Division? Pennant? Series? Not so much. After three playoff seasons out of four, a WC isn't gonna do much for me. Others can speak for themselves.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    Contenders for a Wildcard? Sure. For the Division? Pennant? Series? Not so much. After three playoff seasons out of four, a WC isn't gonna do much for me. Others can speak for themselves.
    at least it won't be winter, ill take it

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Looks like a fair analysis to me. While the Reds would miss the playoffs, they would be close.

    The Reds are shown doing very well defensively, which they should. The gain of BH should be a net plus, even with the loss of Hanigan's defense.

    Pitching wise, the big issue is the loss of Arroyo's innings. Last year the team essentially had six starters with Cingrani and when Cueto got hurt Tony C took up much of the slack.

    This year they only have five bona fide major league starters so it will be harder to fill injury slots.

    The Reds are close enough in this analysis that a bit more offense might have gone a long way. Oh, well.
    KC,

    I think this is where we are at this point, a good team that is limited by payroll from adding big time offensive talent in the off seasons, The key for the Reds for the next few years is good pitching and excellent defense, this will be the formula for a mid market team like the Reds to win consistently over the next decade.

    The Dodgers where a sleeping giant in regards to payroll, now that they have the owners willing to put the money up they will be a force over the next ten years.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
    KC,

    I think this is where we are at this point, a good team that is limited by payroll from adding big time offensive talent in the off seasons, The key for the Reds for the next few years is good pitching and excellent defense, this will be the formula for a mid market team like the Reds to win consistently over the next decade.

    The Dodgers where a sleeping giant in regards to payroll, now that they have the owners willing to put the money up they will be a force over the next ten years.
    Sure, agree.

    However if you look at baseball in the current era, particularly the NL, hitting is down, pitching is up, across the whole league.

    The teams that win will likely have pitching and defense, but also be among the few that have an effective offense. The ability to score runs in a pitching dominated league will be important.

    I understand fully that the Reds couldn't sign more big offensive stars. I wish that they would have added some more OBP and contact hitting types to the lineup.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-05-2014 at 09:22 PM.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    I fully believe that Uncle Bob would open his wallet to add a piece at the deadline if we were within 5 of the Cards and a playoff spot.

    Conversely, should bad luck/health befall them, Walt is going to pimp out Homer like a high class hooker on election night.

    Either way, July is going to be VERY interesting this season.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Don't sleep on Robert Stephenson being ready at any given point. I am convinced that there was a long stretch of time last year when he would have been very successful in the Major Leagues with the games he was throwing despite being in Dayton. While he will begin the year in AA (likely), and he isn't on the 40-man roster, I don't think they will hesitate to call him up if he is actually ready and a spot opens up.
    Not sleeping on RS at all Doug, but I was thinking more about Sharky, Holmberg, Contreras (if he starts), etc. early in the season. I think Stephenson starts the season as a Wahoo, but come the trading deadline (dependent on the Reds pitching situation) all bets are off. I do think he makes his first major league start this season - even if it is just a September callup.


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