Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

[dougdirt]

PECOTA is back and has the projections for the teams out.

The Cincinnati Reds are projected to be 83-79, in 2nd place, and 5 games back of the Cardinals. Only the Dodgers are projected to win over 88 games in the NL.

The Reds team defense is projected as easily the best in the league with only one team, the Diamondbacks, even within 33% of the Reds defensive value.

To get into player details you need to be a BP subscriber, but the team standings/RS/RA/AVG/OBP/SLG is all free.

Discuss.

[CySeymour]

PECOTA is back and has the projections for the teams out.

The Cincinnati Reds are projected to be 83-79, in 2nd place, and 5 games back of the Cardinals. Only the Dodgers are projected to win over 88 games in the NL.

The Reds team defense is projected as easily the best in the league with only one team, the Diamondbacks, even within 33% of the Reds defensive value.

To get into player details you need to be a BP subscriber, but the team standings/RS/RA/AVG/OBP/SLG is all free.

Discuss.

Doug, obviously BP is projecting a big dropoff in centerfield, but is the lower win total also due to projected regression in other players? Hard to for me to believe the Cardinals are also only an 88 win team.

[dougdirt]

Doug, obviously BP is projecting a big dropoff in centerfield, but is the lower win total also due to projected regression in other players? Hard to for me to believe the Cardinals are also only an 88 win team.

I noted that only one team is over 88 wins for a reason. These projections systems, while are usually solid at getting the order right, is usually pretty light on the team win totals because of the regression. PECOTA actually likes Billy Hamilton to produce quite a bit.... though in a very strange kind of way. The Reds 83 wins were 6th best in the NL, so the system likes the Reds, just doesn't love the Reds.

[SporkLover]

I noted that only one team is over 88 wins for a reason. These projections systems, while are usually solid at getting the order right, is usually pretty light on the team win totals because of the regression. PECOTA actually likes Billy Hamilton to produce quite a bit.... though in a very strange kind of way. The Reds 83 wins were 6th best in the NL, so the system likes the Reds, just doesn't love the Reds.

Dougs, out of curousity, what are the factors that seperates the Dodgers so far from the pack? Starting rotation, full year of Puig, healthy Kemp, healthy Hanley?

[dougdirt]

Dougs, out of curousity, what are the factors that seperates the Dodgers so far from the pack? Starting rotation, full year of Puig, healthy Kemp, healthy Hanley?

They are really, really, really stacked with talent. They have seven players making more than $15M per season. SEVEN. And that doesn't count Puig, who was an MVP candidate from the day he stepped onto the field until the end of the year. Oh, and it doesn't count Clayton Kershaw, who is the best pitcher in baseball.

[M2]

I don't think this holds any more weight than other league projections we've seen. Just to rattle off a few of the flaws with the methodologies we're seeing:

1. A lot of it is "duh" analysis. Teams that did well last season project to be better this season. Well, duh.

2. Taking player projections designed primarily for fantasy baseball and adding up the WAR for a team projection has proven a fairly poor method of projecting team performance. You'll get about as close by just scribbling on the back of a napkin.

3. The conservative nature of player projections is what makes it difficult to identify which might be the stand out good or bad teams. PECOTA's got more high and low end projections that, say, Davenport, but we're probably going to see close to 10 teams wit 90+ wins and close to another 10 teams with 90+ losses in reality and that's not showing up in the projections.

4. Weird teams screw up the models. The Reds are a pitching and defense team in a hitting park. The projection systems generally don't come anywhere close to giving the Reds the team pitching value they've put up the past two seasons. The Giants, a hitting team in a pitching park, also throws its share of monkey wrenches into the projections.

5. While it's understandable why projection systems don't insert scouting, it leaves a gaping hole when it comes to team projections. The systems also don't look at the team-level picture. The Reds very well might have offensive issues that reduce the team scoring to something less than the sum of its parts. Conversely, the defense might be better than what gets captured in the individual projections and it might have a significant spillover effect on the pitching.

[Falls City Beer]

Whatever the win total, coming in 2nd 5 games behind the Cards sounds exactly right. In other words, a contending team with warts.

[bellhead]

Whatever the win total, coming in 2nd 5 games behind the Cards sounds exactly right. In other words, a contending team with warts.

Exactly a team with warts that can be removed via trades or people stepping up who didn't hit well last year or were injured.

[Caveat Emperor]

Whatever the win total, coming in 2nd 5 games behind the Cards sounds exactly right. In other words, a contending team with warts.

The problem with the Reds -- as far as contenders go -- is that they've got a low ceiling (not a lot of candidates to break out with career years, no ML-ready players in the minors that could provide a boost) and a really deep basement (lot of OB-challenged hitters, zero depth for pitching or hitting).

[Falls City Beer]

The problem with the Reds -- as far as contenders go -- is that they've got a low ceiling (not a lot of candidates to break out with career years, no ML-ready players in the minors that could provide a boost) and a really deep basement (lot of OB-challenged hitters, zero depth for pitching or hitting).

Those be the warts. I'm well aware of em.

[dougdirt]

The problem with the Reds -- as far as contenders go -- is that they've got a low ceiling (not a lot of candidates to break out with career years, no ML-ready players in the minors that could provide a boost) and a really deep basement (lot of OB-challenged hitters, zero depth for pitching or hitting).

Would it surprise anyone if Joey Votto upped his OPS 100 points? His knee, at least according to him, is healthy for the first time in a long time.

Jay Bruce seems to flirt with consistency more often in terms of his plate approach each year. He gets to a three-ball count an awful lot. If he can figure out how to turn some of those outs into walks with the same thing that got him into those counts, he could break out some.

Devin Mesoraco has all of the ear marks of a breakout guy. Former top prospect with tools. Should get his first taste of consistent playing time since he skyrocketed up the prospect charts.

Those are the three I would put on the "potential to break out" group. Not a bunch, but I could see it with any of those three. The rest of the line up though, not so much.

The prospects, Robert Stephenson aside, are problem still at least a full year away if everything goes right for them.

[tomnuetten]

Those are the three I would put on the "potential to break out" group. Not a bunch, but I could see it with any of those three. The rest of the line up though, not so much.

what about hamilton? He is a big question mark and good be the x-factor for the reds season (I don´t expect to much from him in the first year)

I think some players do have the chance of a little improvement, frazier could be a bit better on the plate. ludwick with a full spring training and a healthy shoulder...

I don´t expect much improvement from those, but they do have a little chance of upside in my book

[bucksfan2]

I think 83 is a little low. I am more in the range of 85-87 wins. I think the Reds will be the best team in the NL at preventing runs. A combination of both their solid pitching staff as well as a top tier defensive team.

In their division I think the Pirates fall back while the Brewers may be closer to .500. I like the Cubs to be a tad better but not much.

The Reds won 90 games last year, I think the pitching will be better and the defense will be better, maybe to offset the loss of Choo.

[RedlegJake]

I think the thing to take away is the Reds 5 behind the Cards. I don't find that an unreasonable projection at this time. The win totals are a bit low but the distance behind is about what I'd predict (which has all the weight of a puff of hot air.)

[757690]

Clearly, PECOTA is living in a fantasy world.