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Thread: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

  1. #31
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    I fully believe that Uncle Bob would open his wallet to add a piece at the deadline if we were within 5 of the Cards and a playoff spot.

    Conversely, should bad luck/health befall them, Walt is going to pimp out Homer like a high class hooker on election night.

    Either way, July is going to be VERY interesting this season.
    He's not going to bring nearly as much at the break though. If he can be extended by ST, either deal him now or hang onto him, get serious about contending and find a way to beef up the lineup - even if its just a solid OF bat from the LH side at the very least (and I do mean VERY LEAST). Don't just stand pat and pray.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    What would you expect his BABIP range to be? It seems to me that a lack of power would reduce it, but ++ speed would increase it, especially if he increases his GB rate.
    I am betting (figuratively) that its about .330, but for all of his speed, his BABIP in AAA last year was just .310.

  4. #33
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    Contenders for a Wildcard? Sure. For the Division? Pennant? Series? Not so much. After three playoff seasons out of four, a WC isn't gonna do much for me. Others can speak for themselves.
    If you make the wild card you are a contender for the series. Anything can happen if you get there.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/4/14. I promise.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    I fully believe that Uncle Bob would open his wallet to add a piece at the deadline if we were within 5 of the Cards and a playoff spot.

    Conversely, should bad luck/health befall them, Walt is going to pimp out Homer like a high class hooker on election night.

    Either way, July is going to be VERY interesting this season.
    Like they did last year? Like last year was?

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Like they did last year? Like last year was?

    The difference, I believe, is that they made their big move in the offseason last year (Choo). This year, for whatever reasons, there have been no moves to make. For all the jokes about waking Walt up at his desk, he's generally been an active GM. This do-nothing off-season just means he'll be itching to make a meaningful move during the season.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    The difference, I believe, is that they made their big move in the offseason last year (Choo). This year, for whatever reasons, there have been no moves to make. For all the jokes about waking Walt up at his desk, he's generally been an active GM. This do-nothing off-season just means he'll be itching to make a meaningful move during the season.
    I guess. Everything you described was in play last season, and they did nothing. And now we have gone through another off-season where there are moves that could have been made that would help their chances to close the gap with the Cardinals and they have done nothing. So I guess I am not seeing how it might be different this summer. All appearances are that BCast has an internal cap on salary that the Reds have reached.

  10. #37
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    I guess. Everything you described was in play last season, and they did nothing. And now we have gone through another off-season where there are moves that could have been made that would help their chances to close the gap with the Cardinals and they have done nothing. So I guess I am not seeing how it might be different this summer. All appearances are that BCast has an internal cap on salary that the Reds have reached.

    Choo was last year's upgrade. It was clearly sink or swim with that move last year.

    And since we can't know what trades the Reds attempted but couldn't find a willing partner, then what free agent signings would you have advocated for this offseason? I was underwhelmed and an glad they didn't jump into that market. I believe they'll have some ability to take on salary at deadline - for that reason.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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  12. #38
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    He's not going to bring nearly as much at the break though. If he can be extended by ST, either deal him now or hang onto him, get serious about contending and find a way to beef up the lineup - even if its just a solid OF bat from the LH side at the very least (and I do mean VERY LEAST). Don't just stand pat and pray.

    Look what Peavy got back for the Sox at the deadline last year. And if Homer has a good year, some contender will overpay for his services in their pennant push. And the Reds will only do it if truly they're out of it, to restock the farm for the next 3-5 year push. It's going to be a BUY or SELL summer. There will be no middle ground.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I am betting (figuratively) that its about .330, but for all of his speed, his BABIP in AAA last year was just .310.

    I'm curious, Doug. How much or little did Billy try to bunt his way on base in the minors? It sure seems like they're going to push that this year. Maybe that alone pulls his BABIP up.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  14. #40
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    Choo was last year's upgrade. It was clearly sink or swim with that move last year.

    And since we can't know what trades the Reds attempted but couldn't find a willing partner, then what free agent signings would you have advocated for this offseason? I was underwhelmed and an glad they didn't jump into that market. I believe they'll have some ability to take on salary at deadline - for that reason.
    At some point it starts to feel like excuses. But, yes, you are right, I cannot know that. Then again, the frickin' Astros of all teams found a way to get a guy like Dexter Fowler, but, sure, the Reds were unable to find a willing partner.

    As for free agent, was there no FA out there who profiled as a lefty part of a platoon for Ludwick? Really?

    At some point, folks defending the continued inaction and ennui of Reds ownership and the GM office are dressing up a poo-poo platter. You might make it look good in some respects, but...

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    btw, the Pecota projections seem fair to me. And underscore the point that KC, mth, wheels, fcb and others have been making. They look good on paper to be competitive - however that is defined, but there has not been a lot done to try and get them over the top. For whatever reason.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    At some point it starts to feel like excuses. But, yes, you are right, I cannot know that. Then again, the frickin' Astros of all teams found a way to get a guy like Dexter Fowler, but, sure, the Reds were unable to find a willing partner.

    As for free agent, was there no FA out there who profiled as a lefty part of a platoon for Ludwick? Really?

    At some point, folks defending the continued inaction and ennui of Reds ownership and the GM office are dressing up a poo-poo platter. You might make it look good in some respects, but...
    Here's the list of 2014 free agent OFs who bat left, and what contracts they signed so far. Which were you hoping the Reds would've splurged on, besides Bernadina? Which would have sent that poo-poo platter back to the kitchen?


    Code:
    Player	Position	Team	Qual?	Years	Amount
    Rick Ankiel	CF / RF				
    Roger Bernadina	LF / CF / RF	Reds	No	1	Minor
    Brennan Boesch	LF / RF	Angels	No	1	Minor
    Shin-Soo Choo	CF / RF	Rangers	Yes (Denied)	7	$130.000MM
    Chris Coghlan	LF / CF	Cubs	No	1	Minor
    Tyler Colvin	CF / RF		No		
    David DeJesus	LF / CF / RF	Rays		2	$10.500MM
    Chris Dickerson	LF	Pirates		1	Minor
    Jacoby Ellsbury	CF	Yankees	Yes (Denied)	7	$153.000MM
    Sam Fuld	LF / CF / RF	Athletics	No	1	Minor
    Curtis Granderson	LF / RF / CF	Mets	Yes (Denied)	4	$60.000MM
    Raul Ibanez	LF / DH	Angels	No	1	$2.750MM
    Kelly Johnson	2B / 3B / LF	Yankees		1	$3.000MM
    Garrett Jones	1B / RF	Marlins	No	2	$7.750MM
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  17. #43
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    Here's the list of 2014 free agent OFs who bat left, and what contracts they signed so far. Which were you hoping the Reds would've splurged on, besides Bernadina? Which would have sent that poo-poo platter back to the kitchen?


    Code:
    Player	Position	Team	Qual?	Years	Amount
    Rick Ankiel	CF / RF				
    Roger Bernadina	LF / CF / RF	Reds	No	1	Minor
    Brennan Boesch	LF / RF	Angels	No	1	Minor
    Shin-Soo Choo	CF / RF	Rangers	Yes (Denied)	7	$130.000MM
    Chris Coghlan	LF / CF	Cubs	No	1	Minor
    Tyler Colvin	CF / RF		No		
    David DeJesus	LF / CF / RF	Rays		2	$10.500MM
    Chris Dickerson	LF	Pirates		1	Minor
    Jacoby Ellsbury	CF	Yankees	Yes (Denied)	7	$153.000MM
    Sam Fuld	LF / CF / RF	Athletics	No	1	Minor
    Curtis Granderson	LF / RF / CF	Mets	Yes (Denied)	4	$60.000MM
    Raul Ibanez	LF / DH	Angels	No	1	$2.750MM
    Kelly Johnson	2B / 3B / LF	Yankees		1	$3.000MM
    Garrett Jones	1B / RF	Marlins	No	2	$7.750MM
    Garrett Jones would have been an awesome platoon partner for Ludwick (assuming he can play LF - since he's had RF experience, I bet he could have). Perfect, actually. Also could have been a guy who could give Joey the occasional day off at 1b. David DeJesus would have been another nice platoon option, with the benefit of being Hamilton insurance. While we are on it, Raul Ibanez would have been an insanely nice fit as a platoon partner for Ludwick for 2014, and given this team some pop off the bench.

    If it wasn't there, then it had to be traded for.

    Excuses, excuses, excuses. So many excuses for Walt and the front office and ownership. Tiring. Whatever.
    Last edited by membengal; 02-06-2014 at 08:18 AM.

  18. #44
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Garrett Jones would have been an awesome platoon partner for Ludwick (assuming he can play LF - since he's had RF experience, I bet he could have). Perfect, actually. Also could have been a guy who could give Joey the occasional day off at 1b. David DeJesus would have been another nice platoon option, with the benefit of being Hamilton insurance. While we are on it, Raul Ibanez would have been an insanely nice fit as a platoon partner for Ludwick for 2014, and given this team some pop off the bench.

    If it wasn't there, then it had to be traded for.

    Excuses, excuses, excuses. So many excuses for Walt and the front office and ownership. Tiring. Whatever.
    Honestly, if the Reds threw that much money at Jones, a whole lot on here would have blasted the front office for pouring that much into a platoon/reserve outfielder.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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  20. #45
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projects the Reds for 2nd place

    Not me. Not sure why anyone would, given that the team was taking choo and arroyo off the books . A modest re-investment of resources shouldn't have cheesed people off.


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