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Thread: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I understand he has flashed elite velocity, but the reason I question him is the fact he hovers around 92 most of the time. I don't understand why a guy that threw 98 in high school has decreased in velocity, just seems odd to me.

    For the prospect gurus on here:

    If Travieso turns 24 years old and is pitching 90-92 consistently is it likely for him to even rank top 30 prospect on the Reds farm?

    I know a lot can happen between now and then.
    Chad Rogers is 24 and throws 89-91 and he is ranked in the top 30.

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  3. #17
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Chad Rogers is 24 and throws 89-91 and he is ranked in the top 30.
    True, True - but follow-up question do you ever realistically see Chad Rogers being in the starting rotation barring injury?

    I did not know Rogers pitched at 89-91, he just (unfairly) went from an interesting prospect to a non-commodity to me in 5 seconds.
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 02-12-2014 at 08:08 AM.

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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    True, True - but follow-up question do you ever realistically see Chad Rogers being in the starting rotation barring injury?
    Sure.

    That's not all that different from Mike Leake's velocity, and he has been quite successful as a major league starter. There are plenty of major league starting pitchers who work in the high 80s / low 90s.

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  6. #19
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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Unless Travieso blows up and turns into a Robert Stephenson type prospect he will always suffer from what I will refer to Drew Stubbs syndrome where people will not look at his minor league development for what it is but will focus on what it is not. Drew Stubbs was always, "the guy we drafted instead of Tim Lincecum"

    If he was a 2nd or 3rd round pick I don't think people would be too concerned and would focus on the positives other people mentioned such as age, progress, etc. The problem he has is 2 fold. One he was considered a second rounder or sandwich pick at best and was a reach at #15. The second issue is 4 of the 5 pitchers taken after him are considered top 100 prospects with only Chris Stratton of the Giants not considered a top prospect.

    I am a Reds fan and am rooting for him in a big way to reach his potential, but I hated the pick when the Reds made it and I cringe every time I hear about his potential while I am having visions of Michael Wacha 2 hit the Dodgers in the playoffs.

    Full disclosure: My pick for the 2012 draft was Lucas Giolito. I was not in the Michael Wacha camp. I never would have guessed in a million years he was as good as he has been so far.

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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    Hold on there. He just turned 20 years old, has 25 career appearances, and was throwing 98 mph in high school. He has had no major injuries and is a good kid. Let's see how he does in 2014.
    We're going to see that anyway. I agree it's way too early to proclaim him a bust or even a probable bust, but he's definitely more of a project than we'd have wanted with a first round pick. krm1580 made some great points about how the talent that was on the board when the Reds picked Travieso is likely to cause us frequent pangs of regret if Travieso doesn't pan out. 2012 was about as stacked a late first/sandwich/second round of a draft as you can get.

    Two main questions with Travieso right now:

    1) Where do you start him off in 2014? Obviously you have to let ST enter into your decision making, but I'd target a return to Dayton.

    2) If a trade partner emerges who's willing to trade an OF bat for prospects, would you be willing to part with Travieso? Obviously it depends on the bat (though let's pretend it's someone capable) and you probably offer up other arms first (e.g. Corcino), but is Travieso a tradable commodity for you?
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    he's definitely more of a project than we'd have wanted with a first round pick.
    No one would argue that. You would like to have seen "first round stuff" right out of the gate, but...

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    1) Where do you start him off in 2014? Obviously you have to let ST enter into your decision making, but I'd target a return to Dayton.

    2) If a trade partner emerges who's willing to trade an OF bat for prospects, would you be willing to part with Travieso? Obviously it depends on the bat (though let's pretend it's someone capable) and you probably offer up other arms first (e.g. Corcino), but is Travieso a tradable commodity for you?
    1) Dayton, almost certainly.
    2) I would be very surprised. You would be trading a player whose value is at its low point, you are not going to get that much in return. To trade him now, you would basically be saying, "I don't think he will help us so lets get something out of him while we still can." They have not given up on Travieso, by any means.

    From among Travieso, Romano, and Stephens, the Reds need to develop at least one legit big league starter to replace a free agent loss that is coming down the road. Stephenson will probably replace Bailey (sooner or later), but they have to be able to restock to stay competitive in the long term. Sorry if you have heard me say this before, but a road map to last place for a small market team is to trade your prospects for short-term big league help. The Reds have to keep looking three years down the road and thinking that at all times, they need to have multiple key contributing players who are making under $1 million per year (right now, you have Frazier, Cozart, Cingrani, Mesoraco, Hamilton, Hoover). Three years down the road, when all of those guys are in their arbitration years, you must have a new group of minimum salary contributors.

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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    From among Travieso, Romano, and Stephens, the Reds need to develop at least one legit big league starter to replace a free agent loss that is coming down the road.
    Interesting threesome to pick. I can see lumping them together, but I wouldn't do it as a grouping of near-critical guys from the Reds standpoint. I view all three as kids who've got a lot to prove before we hang larger hopes and expectations upon them.

    I'd sort of break it down like this (note - this is a taxonomy, not a ranking list):

    Superstud the Reds are counting on to be the next big thing - Stephenson

    More advanced arms who might fill slots when/if defections hit the big league staff - Holmberg, Moscot, Lively

    Wildcard #1 - Lorenzen

    Fringe guys with a chance to surprise (though don't count on it) - Corcino, Sharky, Smith, Cisco

    Wildcard #2 - Contreras

    Look good in diapers - Kivel, Mahle, Armstrong, Constante

    Wildcard #3 - Garrett

    Something to prove - Travieso, Stephens, Romano
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    I would agree with what you have there and my wording could have been better. Change Reds need to Reds hope. I think the three I mentioned are the most likely to contribute from their particular "wave" up through the minors. You could include Garrett in that group, though he has to show that he wants to do more than fulfill his signing bonus requirements. There is a rumor that he may actually be in spring training this year, which had not been expected when it was thought that he would be playing basketball and finishing the term in school.

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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Guillon should be in the conversation when we talk about guys who could end up starting for the Reds. I like him better than several of the names getting thrown around. Led the Midwest League in Ks at 21, great improvement in the second half of 2013. Has 3 viable pitches. Excellent athlete.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  14. #25
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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Guillon should be in the conversation when we talk about guys who could end up starting for the Reds. I like him better than several of the names getting thrown around. Led the Midwest League in Ks at 21, great improvement in the second half of 2013. Has 3 viable pitches. Excellent athlete.
    Wildcard #4
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  15. #26
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    What does "Look good in diapers" mean?

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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    What does "Look good in diapers" mean?
    They've pitched in rookie ball or the Domincan or not much yet in the pros and shown some promise. Haven't put on big boy pants yet.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  18. #28
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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    From among Travieso, Romano, and Stephens, the Reds need to develop at least one legit big league starter to replace a free agent loss that is coming down the road. Stephenson will probably replace Bailey (sooner or later), but they have to be able to restock to stay competitive in the long term. Sorry if you have heard me say this before, but a road map to last place for a small market team is to trade your prospects for short-term big league help. The Reds have to keep looking three years down the road and thinking that at all times, they need to have multiple key contributing players who are making under $1 million per year (right now, you have Frazier, Cozart, Cingrani, Mesoraco, Hamilton, Hoover). Three years down the road, when all of those guys are in their arbitration years, you must have a new group of minimum salary contributors.
    In my own awkward way, I have tried to make the same point regarding future competitiveness. Further, a strong pitching pipeline is, to me, the most important aspect of the planning strategy. Complement a strong pitching staff with good defense and a few grinders and a team can remain competitive. A long term contract for a an outstanding position player may be possible from time to time. Long term contracts for pitchers, however, carry too much risk for a small market team. At best, the Reds may be able to buy out the last two arbitration years and get a FA year or two in the deal. That approach reduces the risk for both the player and the club while still leaving the player the potential to cash in on a large FA contract later. The Reds chief concern should be replacing Latos, Cueto, and Leake in 2016 from prospects already in the organization. IMO, it would wise to extend Leake through 2017 now.

  19. #29
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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Add Ty Boyles, Luis Gonzalez and Jonahan Perez to the diapers gang, which is large and actually quite impressive. Now the Reds just need 2 or so to emerge as serious starting candidates.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

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    Re: FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Add Ty Boyles, Luis Gonzalez and Jonahan Perez to the diapers gang, which is large and actually quite impressive. Now the Reds just need 2 or so to emerge as serious starting candidates.
    The thought of Ty Boyles in a diaper makes me laugh. He's a big boy.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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