Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 02-12-2014 at 09:08 AM.
Unless Travieso blows up and turns into a Robert Stephenson type prospect he will always suffer from what I will refer to Drew Stubbs syndrome where people will not look at his minor league development for what it is but will focus on what it is not. Drew Stubbs was always, "the guy we drafted instead of Tim Lincecum"
If he was a 2nd or 3rd round pick I don't think people would be too concerned and would focus on the positives other people mentioned such as age, progress, etc. The problem he has is 2 fold. One he was considered a second rounder or sandwich pick at best and was a reach at #15. The second issue is 4 of the 5 pitchers taken after him are considered top 100 prospects with only Chris Stratton of the Giants not considered a top prospect.
I am a Reds fan and am rooting for him in a big way to reach his potential, but I hated the pick when the Reds made it and I cringe every time I hear about his potential while I am having visions of Michael Wacha 2 hit the Dodgers in the playoffs.
Full disclosure: My pick for the 2012 draft was Lucas Giolito. I was not in the Michael Wacha camp. I never would have guessed in a million years he was as good as he has been so far.
Two main questions with Travieso right now:
1) Where do you start him off in 2014? Obviously you have to let ST enter into your decision making, but I'd target a return to Dayton.
2) If a trade partner emerges who's willing to trade an OF bat for prospects, would you be willing to part with Travieso? Obviously it depends on the bat (though let's pretend it's someone capable) and you probably offer up other arms first (e.g. Corcino), but is Travieso a tradable commodity for you?
He'll probably be all right.
2) I would be very surprised. You would be trading a player whose value is at its low point, you are not going to get that much in return. To trade him now, you would basically be saying, "I don't think he will help us so lets get something out of him while we still can." They have not given up on Travieso, by any means.
From among Travieso, Romano, and Stephens, the Reds need to develop at least one legit big league starter to replace a free agent loss that is coming down the road. Stephenson will probably replace Bailey (sooner or later), but they have to be able to restock to stay competitive in the long term. Sorry if you have heard me say this before, but a road map to last place for a small market team is to trade your prospects for short-term big league help. The Reds have to keep looking three years down the road and thinking that at all times, they need to have multiple key contributing players who are making under $1 million per year (right now, you have Frazier, Cozart, Cingrani, Mesoraco, Hamilton, Hoover). Three years down the road, when all of those guys are in their arbitration years, you must have a new group of minimum salary contributors.
I'd sort of break it down like this (note - this is a taxonomy, not a ranking list):
Superstud the Reds are counting on to be the next big thing - Stephenson
More advanced arms who might fill slots when/if defections hit the big league staff - Holmberg, Moscot, Lively
Wildcard #1 - Lorenzen
Fringe guys with a chance to surprise (though don't count on it) - Corcino, Sharky, Smith, Cisco
Wildcard #2 - Contreras
Look good in diapers - Kivel, Mahle, Armstrong, Constante
Wildcard #3 - Garrett
Something to prove - Travieso, Stephens, Romano
He'll probably be all right.
I would agree with what you have there and my wording could have been better. Change Reds need to Reds hope. I think the three I mentioned are the most likely to contribute from their particular "wave" up through the minors. You could include Garrett in that group, though he has to show that he wants to do more than fulfill his signing bonus requirements. There is a rumor that he may actually be in spring training this year, which had not been expected when it was thought that he would be playing basketball and finishing the term in school.
Guillon should be in the conversation when we talk about guys who could end up starting for the Reds. I like him better than several of the names getting thrown around. Led the Midwest League in Ks at 21, great improvement in the second half of 2013. Has 3 viable pitches. Excellent athlete.
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
What does "Look good in diapers" mean?
Add Ty Boyles, Luis Gonzalez and Jonahan Perez to the diapers gang, which is large and actually quite impressive. Now the Reds just need 2 or so to emerge as serious starting candidates.
"If this was a court of law, the cross examination would go after the credibility of the witness." Homer Bailey on Latos snarking on the team after his trade
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