FanGraphs Q&A: Nick Travieso

[texasdave]

Dan Langfield might be considered Wildcard #5. Although, I think he eventually end up in the pen.

[RedlegJake]

The thought of Ty Boyles in a diaper makes me laugh. He's a big boy.

Ty's Pampers come one to a box....

[texasdave]

Ty's Pampers come one to a box....

Yeah. That's why they're called boxers.

[Chuckie]

I don't know how someone could look at Travieso's drop in velocity from high school until now and not be concerned. He threw 98 MPH in high school, but rarely goes over 92 now? That's troublesome. Or perhaps he never really threw 98 -- which makes it troublesome that we drafted him with the No. 14 overall pick based on the idea he was a power pitcher.

He might turn out just fine. He might turn out far better than that. All I'm saying is I'm concerned at this point. And I would bet when we look back on it years from now, we'll say it was a bad pick.

[dougdirt]

I don't know how someone could look at Travieso's drop in velocity from high school until now and not be concerned. He threw 98 MPH in high school, but rarely goes over 92 now? That's troublesome. Or perhaps he never really threw 98 -- which makes it troublesome that we drafted him with the No. 14 overall pick based on the idea he was a power pitcher.

Homer Bailey threw harder in high school than he did for a while in the minors. Then when he reached the Majors he threw significantly softer than he throws today. It happens all of the time. Guys work on things in the minors and throwing it as hard as possible isn't always the best way to work through things.

People who were expecting Travieso to come out and throw 94-98 were living in a dream world. The number of guys who can sit there as starters in the Majors and Minors can be counted on two hands. Homer Bailey for example, averaged 94.1 MPH in 2013. He was one of seven starters in the Major Leagues to average 94.0 MPH or higher. Only Stephen Strasburg and Matt Harvey averaged 95.0 or higher. Even the absolute cream of the crop top guys in the game throw 92-95 and touch higher.

Here is what I know.... Travieso sat low 90's on most days, sat 93-95 on some days and touched 97 multiple times throughout the season. I am not worried in the slightest about his velocity and anyone who is doesn't have realistic ideas of what guys actually throw in baseball.

[lollipopcurve]

Here is what I know.... Travieso sat low 90's on most days, sat 93-95 on some days and touched 97 multiple times throughout the season. I am not worried in the slightest about his velocity and anyone who is doesn't have realistic ideas of what guys actually throw in baseball.

I doubt he was sitting 93-95 as often as you suggest. Per redsof72 he was more an 89-91 guy. And for comparison, look at high schoolers like Archie Bradley and Stephenson -- these guys came out of HS throwing hard and have continued. Stephenson has even started to touch higher velocities. Combine this with the fact that Travieso's secondary stuff has not looked especially good and I think there's cause for concern. He must take a big step forward in 2014 to change that. LOTS of guys touch mid-high 90s on the rare occasion. It does not make Travieso a prospect to be excited about at this time.

[dougdirt]

I doubt he was sitting 93-95 as often as you suggest. Per redsof72 he was more an 89-91 guy. And for comparison, look at high schoolers like Archie Bradley and Stephenson -- these guys came out of HS throwing hard and have continued. Stephenson has even started to touch higher velocities. Combine this with the fact that Travieso's secondary stuff has not looked especially good and I think there's cause for concern. He must take a big step forward in 2014 to change that. LOTS of guys touch mid-high 90s on the rare occasion. It does not make Travieso a prospect to be excited about at this time.

I don't think I suggested a number of times he was 93-95. And I also don't think redsof72 said he was an 89-91 guy. Travieso was both of those throughout the season. I know that I saw both versions. As Travieso said himself, he was 92-94 at times as well.

To compare someone, just about anyone to Archie Bradley or Robert Stephenson isn't really fair. They are the absolute elite of the elite. That's like saying someone isn't Joey Votto or Mike Trout.

Now, if someone wants to talk about the merits of the secondary stuff as a reason to have concern with Travieso, feel free. But that isn't what the OP was saying. What he was saying is that his velocity should be a concern. So I responded to that point.

[redsof72]

Large variation from game to game, even inning to inning, but I would guess his "median" fastball was 92. I remember the game at South Bend when he suddenly starting humming at 96. His stuff does get better when he gets in jams.

I am anxious to see how he throws the ball this season, having gone through a full year, learned how competitive it is, learned how to prepare from start to start, how important conditioning is (he is a big kid at 6'2" and about 230). He is a smart kid who wants to do the things necessary to succeed.

I think the negative would be that with the 14th pick of the draft, you would hope to see better stuff, but 2013 is over so lets see what he can do in 2014. I like the kid, like his attitude. Lets see how it goes.

As I have said before, Stephenson is truly one of a kind, at least as far as Reds pitching prospects in many years. Stephenson gets off the bus throwing 96-99, every start. He will hit 100 in some starts. Bailey did not throw that hard in the minors. I have asked guys who saw Dibble (I saw him but do not remember the velocity--it was not as talked about then) and they feel that he is a valid comparison, but Dibble came in out of the bullpen blowing cheese in shorter stints, so even still...Russ Nixon once told me that Don Gullett was a 100 mph guy at the beginning so he might be a comp. You are going back to 1970 to find one. I have seen Archie Bradley and he is legit. Jarrod Parker, pre-surgery, was throwing hard. You do not see many. I can't imagine anyone throwing as hard as Stephenson with his quality of secondary pitches but maybe they are out there. I think Stephenson's change-up is better than some of the stuff I am reading and his breaking ball is already being referred to as a 65 on the scout scale. Robert was pretty open in the media about the fact that the Reds thought he was throwing too many change-ups but it is hard not to throw it when guys are gearing up for 98 and you know that if you throw it where you want to, they have absolutely no chance to hit it. If you want to nit-pick with Stephenson and find something to question: 1) his fastball is a little straight; 2) he has had some nagging injuries, though nothing requiring surgery.

[M2]

I am anxious to see how he throws the ball this season, having gone through a full year, learned how competitive it is, learned how to prepare from start to start, how important conditioning is (he is a big kid at 6'2" and about 230). He is a smart kid who wants to do the things necessary to succeed.

I always wonder about whether it benefits stocky pitchers to get in truly good shape. Travieso would need to lose 40 pounds to get his BMI into the normal zone and I kind of doubt his heater would be cracking 90 all that often if he did it.

[OGB]

This, 100 times.

I understand the hesitance from some, but I also think that people are missing the entire picture. Yes, there were games where he threw 88-90 for the entire game. But there were at least two games I saw where he was 93-95 the entire game too and touched 97.

There are times where he can still flash elite velocity. And the kid throws strikes. There are a lot of worse things out there to be concerned about than that a year after being drafted.

Doug, I'd love to hear your opinion, as well as redsof72's, about the possibility of his velocity returning and what it may take to get there.
This may be purely anecdotal, but as I recall Homer's velocity seemed to spike back closer to his #1 prospect in the game levels last year after hovering around 90-94 for a couple seasons. In fact, on several occasions it seemed like he was throwing his hardest--sometimes touching 96-98--when he was over 90 pitches in late innings.
If I had to guess, this is attributed to a combination of improved conditioning, mechanics, and confidence.
Hopefully Travieso can make the same strides as he ages/improves.

[SYCMiniBus]

Homer had the same thing. I think his first year or two in the bigs he was right around 91-92 on his fastball and people were wondering what happened to the 95 he threw in high school.

Also Homer usually starts out games in the 92 range and by the time he reaches the 5th or 6th he is throwing 94-96, Travieso could be the same way. I am darn sure not a pitching coach and don't understand how that works, but it very clearly is what Homer does, and if Travieso is like that as well that shouldn't be an issue.