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Thread: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

  1. #46
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    I would suggest that just because the other players are bad does not mean that Hannahan isn't also bad. However, Mesoraco and to a lesser degree Cozart both have potential to improve still whereas Hannahan is on the downside of his unimpressive career.
    Well, Cozart is a below .300 OBP guy who gets 600 PAs in a season. Mesoraco is a below .300 OBP guy who will probably get over 400 PAs next season.

    I'd suggest that while they may have "upside" they are a lot more cause for concern than a bench player who seldom plays and got about 160 PAs last season with a .317 OBP, even if he doesn't hit for power.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-07-2014 at 10:04 PM.

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  3. #47
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Well, Cozart is a below .300 OBP guy who gets 600 PAs in a season. Mesoraco is a below .300 OBP guy who will probably get over 400 PAs next season.

    I'd suggest that while they may have "upside" they are a lot more cause for concern than a bench player who seldom plays and got about 160 PAs last season with a .317 OBP, even if he doesn't hit for power.
    160 PAs is still about a fourth of a regular season. That's not nothing.

    And while yeah, Cozart is going to be a major problem, and Mes could be one too, I should rather say expecting one of them to improve is reasonable. The difference also is that it's far easier to upgrade a bench player like Hannahan than it is to find a new starting SS or catcher.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  4. #48
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    I would probably be in favor of the extra bat on the bench.

  5. #49
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    160 PAs is still about a fourth of a regular season. That's not nothing.

    And while yeah, Cozart is going to be a major problem, and Mes could be one too, I should rather say expecting one of them to improve is reasonable. The difference also is that it's far easier to upgrade a bench player like Hannahan than it is to find a new starting SS or catcher.
    I don't get this. Cozart had the 16th best WAR in the game amongst SS last year. 5th most valuable defensive SS according to FG. Yes, 13th of 17th (sandwiched between Jimmy Rollins and Elvis Andrus FYI) among qualified guys in wRC+. So far, very durable, which he should get credit for.

    You have to take the good with the bad and see the overall picture. If what we have seen from Zach Cozart so far is the biggest problem the Reds have on the positional side of things, they win the division by 5 games.

  6. #50
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I don't get this. Cozart had the 16th best WAR in the game amongst SS last year. 5th most valuable defensive SS according to FG. Yes, 13th of 17th (sandwiched between Jimmy Rollins and Elvis Andrus FYI) among qualified guys in wRC+. So far, very durable, which he should get credit for.

    You have to take the good with the bad and see the overall picture. If what we have seen from Zach Cozart so far is the biggest problem the Reds have on the positional side of things, they win the division by 5 games.
    So he was in the lower half of starting SS then?

    Also yeah I know he was a good defender, but I'm not one to believe that good defense cancels out terrible hitting to the degree that WAR does.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  7. #51
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    The Reds can get away without a backup SS to start the season, but a few months in, they will need someone to spell Cozart. He's not going to start 162 games, more like 150 if healthy. He's going to need rest, eventually.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #52
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Reds can get away without a backup SS to start the season, but a few months in, they will need someone to spell Cozart. He's not going to start 162 games, more like 150 if healthy. He's going to need rest, eventually.
    Fair point, but are Hamilton/Hannahan (since he has to be on the team) et al, really that incapable of playing SS once or twice a month? If so, then they need to find that Keppinger that's out there.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Going into this year, what happens if Hannahan is let go and Fraziers glove regresses? The Reds would be left defensively between a rock and a hard place.
    Exactly. That is No. 458 on my list of concerns about the 2014 Reds.

  10. #54
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    So he was in the lower half of starting SS then?

    Also yeah I know he was a good defender, but I'm not one to believe that good defense cancels out terrible hitting to the degree that WAR does.
    Yes Wonderful Monds, you are correct, 16th best out of 30 is in the lower half of the league.

    I have bigger fish to fry.

    Will Ludwick come back to 2012 form?

    Will Billy take the reins in CF?

    Will Mes come of age?

    I am content to ride Cozart's 2+ WAR out myself.

  11. #55
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Once again, you're using the word strong as an equivalent to competent. That's not what that means. Schumaker doesn't play good defense, but it's competent enough for a backup. He can get by out there without killing you.

    That's not really the case with Hannahan for example, whose hitting is so far below acceptable that he becomes a drag, even as a bench player.
    But his defense is very above average and his career OBP is higher than some of our starters. His power is lacking. To me he is a very competent backup if used in the correct manner. That's a defensive replacement that rarely gets at bats in situations that call for power. It does call into question what I see as the only issue with the bench and that's lefty power. I really don't think there's much need to look outside of the organization for this. Lutz is in AAA. While I really like the guy, a more objective look at things says that barring some breakout type if year which is a small possibility, other prospects like winker Ervin or YRod will probably surpass him on the depth chart. If he shows up strong this spring, why not use him as lefty power off the bench as well as a left handed caddy for ludwick and a way to rest votto without losing power in the lineup? It's be a cheap practical option. At that point you could let Hannahan go or just cut Santiago and let Jack cover SS in a bind. It probably won't play out like that though well probably get Hannahan and Santiago and a guy like Lutz won't get called up unless it's an emergency.

  12. #56
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Yes Wonderful Monds, you are correct, 16th best out of 30 is in the lower half of the league.

    I have bigger fish to fry.

    Will Ludwick come back to 2012 form?

    Will Billy take the reins in CF?

    Will Mes come of age?

    I am content to ride Cozart's 2+ WAR out myself.
    The other thing about pointing out where a player ranks in his position in ___ stat is that it doesn't account for position scarcity. It's kind of like how there might be 30 number one pitchers it doesn't mean there are 30 aces.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  13. #57
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    The other thing about pointing out where a player ranks in his position in ___ stat is that it doesn't account for position scarcity. It's kind of like how there might be 30 number one pitchers it doesn't mean there are 30 aces.
    Durability or lack of being suspended due to PEDS is a positive in my book. Cozart fits that bill.

    Zack Cozart played all year last season, and according to the metrics most of us accept earned the Reds 2+ WAR.

    I don't get how that is a "problem".

    Go back to Opening Day 2013. How many SS on the field would have cause the Reds to win more games than Cozart? I'm guessing the range is 14-18.

    Again, bigger fish to fry.

  14. #58
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Cozart doesn't hit. Given.

    But I don't know why this makes Hannahan's worthless bat valuable. Please explain.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  15. #59
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    Re: Reds Backup Shortstop Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Durability or lack of being suspended due to PEDS is a positive in my book. Cozart fits that bill.

    Zack Cozart played all year last season, and according to the metrics most of us accept earned the Reds 2+ WAR.

    I don't get how that is a "problem".

    Go back to Opening Day 2013. How many SS on the field would have cause the Reds to win more games than Cozart? I'm guessing the range is 14-18.

    Again, bigger fish to fry.
    If I were a GM I would find a way to replace every starting position player on my team who cannot OBP .300. Period. Now, I'd give guys a couple of seasons to improve and maybe Cozart does better this year.

    When a guy gets 600 PAs, or in Mes' case is likely to get over 400, these adverse tendencies have a huge impact.

    Between those two, the Reds could have 1,000 PAs with a below .300 OBP. That is a lineup killer. Even a .305, .310 OBP is a problem, but neither Cozart nor Mes has reached .290 in their "full" seasons in the bigs.

    Hannahan is a much smaller issue. He is a lifetime .316 OBP, .660 OPS bench player. Little power, had a bad year. Sure, Reds should consider how to configure the bench, Hannahan will likely stay, I don't see it as a big deal. He doesn't play that much to have a big impact.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-08-2014 at 01:00 PM.


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