Turn Off Ads?
Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst 12345
Results 61 to 75 of 75

Thread: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

  1. #61
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,161

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    WAR puts everybody on the same baseline, with adjustments for position, park, league, etc.

    Catchers are definitely a weakness, as the metrics for catcher defense are pretty incomplete. There's an argument to be made that WAR misses a decent chunk of the value catchers provide.

    But comparing a SS vs. 1B vs. LF, totally legit -- at minimum, it's done in a more rigorous, consistent way than the mental "calculus" we do when we just look at offense and then just sort of fudge things based on our subjective assessment of defensive performance* and an unstated fudge factor for position.
    Cool. Thanks for the clarification.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #62
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I've always found these things funny to be honest. Simply put, nobody has ANY CLUE how many wins/losses one player gave his team. Especially on defense. Let's just say for arguments sake that Choo missed a fly ball that should've been caught or that Hamilton catches a ball that others wouldn't have caught. Okay, you can infer where that runner would've ended up but you can't infer how the remainder of the inning would've played out. How the pitcher would've pitched the following batter based on different circumstances, how the defense would've aligned, if the manager would've made different choices, etc, etc, etc. This alone is my biggest beef with WAR as a stat. I find it useful in comparing players...but I don't buy the argument that player A produced so many wins compared to player B. It's a team game and one player doesn't give you a W or a L except is extreme cases IMO.
    you are looking at it in the micro and not the macro. You can extrapolate runs saved based on number of outs gained on defense. 1 out in one game? sample is too small. 30-40 outs over a season? that's 30-40 baserunners eliminated. You then don't have to try and infer what happens next because we'll know after the inning is over exactly what happened. Plus there is scoring probability based on outs. The more outs Hamilton accrues on defense, the lower the scoring probability.

    Hamilton is going to have warts defensively. He's only played the position for 1 season and some winter ball. He's still got some learning to do, but his speed alone will allow him to create at least 30 outs that Choo turned into hits.

    I don't know exactly what the math is, but the math does exist. Plus, I have eyes. 30 - 40 runs over the course of a season? yep, I can see that.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #63
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    This is slightly off-topic, and is not meant as a bashing Dusty post.

    In retrospect, considering how many games Ludwick missed and his general ineffectiveness upon his return, how much better would the Reds have been pushing Choo to LF on Day 2 of the season and letting Robinson/Heisey/Paul man CF?

    Seems to me that one of the best defenses in baseball would have been even better, and that simple position switch might have been worth 1-2 wins.

    food for thought.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  5. Likes:

    JMac84 (02-15-2014), wlf WV (02-14-2014)

  6. #64
    Stat geek...and proud
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Paris, OH
    Posts
    2,489

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    This is slightly off-topic, and is not meant as a bashing Dusty post.

    In retrospect, considering how many games Ludwick missed and his general ineffectiveness upon his return, how much better would the Reds have been pushing Choo to LF on Day 2 of the season and letting Robinson/Heisey/Paul man CF?

    Seems to me that one of the best defenses in baseball would have been even better, and that simple position switch might have been worth 1-2 wins.

    food for thought.
    Several people were pounding that drum when it became apparent that Ludwick's injury was going to be long term. I agreed then and I agree now.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/4/14. I promise.

  7. #65
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,703

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by wlf WV View Post
    Rick,
    Your patience and internet demeanor,are just as valuable to this forum as your knowledge.
    Thanks ,
    Lyle
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. Likes:

    JMac84 (02-15-2014)

  9. #66
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    South of Cincinnati
    Posts
    2,006

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by CySeymour View Post
    It's not always errors or clumsy looking plays that cause. Fly balls that drop that an average major league centerfielder would have gotten to also go down as a mark against a defender.

    Certainly. But I think people may wind up being surprised how many of those came in wins or were inconsequential. I watch stuff like that pretty closely (especially since it was such a big topic we all talked about when Choo came over) and I do not recall him having a direct impact on a loss other than a game versus STL real early in the season.

    It would be cool to have an exact breakdown, like someone else suggested here.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  10. #67
    Stat geek...and proud
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Paris, OH
    Posts
    2,489

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Certainly. But I think people may wind up being surprised how many of those came in wins or were inconsequential. I watch stuff like that pretty closely (especially since it was such a big topic we all talked about when Choo came over) and I do not recall him having a direct impact on a loss other than a game versus STL real early in the season.

    It would be cool to have an exact breakdown, like someone else suggested here.
    Reds actually won that game 13-4 after scoring 9 in the ninth.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/4/14. I promise.

  11. #68
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,898

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Certainly. But I think people may wind up being surprised how many of those came in wins or were inconsequential. I watch stuff like that pretty closely (especially since it was such a big topic we all talked about when Choo came over) and I do not recall him having a direct impact on a loss other than a game versus STL real early in the season.

    It would be cool to have an exact breakdown, like someone else suggested here.
    That can be a misleading way to think about it. We might remember the 10th inning HR that cost us a 4-3 loss, while forgetting the 2-out, RBI single that fell in after a poor jump in the 3rd inning. Had that play been made in the 3rd, the Reds would have won 3-2 in 9.

    That's merely an illustration, but the point stands. Trying to come up with a figure for a guy's overall impact by looking for individual games where he was "the difference" just doesn't hold up to scrutiny because it leaves out so much of what he did that clearly mattered, but which can't be easily isolated.

    I totally get the notion that a guy's actual influence on wins/losses might vary somewhat from a runs based estimate. But if a person was to go through every play to find the ones that mattered, I think you'd find there being so much subjective judgement involved so as to make the exercise nearly pointless.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #69
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,108

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    That can be a misleading way to think about it. We might remember the 10th inning HR that cost us a 4-3 loss, while forgetting the 2-out, RBI single that fell in after a poor jump in the 3rd inning. Had that play been made in the 3rd, the Reds would have won 3-2 in 9.

    That's merely an illustration, but the point stands. Trying to come up with a figure for a guy's overall impact by looking for individual games where he was "the difference" just doesn't hold up to scrutiny because it leaves out so much of what he did that clearly mattered, but which can't be easily isolated.

    I totally get the notion that a guy's actual influence on wins/losses might vary somewhat from a runs based estimate. But if a person was to go through every play to find the ones that mattered, I think you'd find there being so much subjective judgement involved so as to make the exercise nearly pointless.
    Was it a poor jump or poor positioning? Could it have been that he lost the ball off the bat or the sun was in an unfamiliar place? Was it a bloop or was it a ball that he took a safe rout because it was early in the game? Could Choo have caught it if he dove but didn't want to give up a potential triple or inside the park HR?

    Personally I think Choo played a very 'safe' CF. He played deep and opted to pull up on 50/50 balls that were sinking in front of him. Hamilton may be more inclined to get those. Hamilton's speed may allow him to play a different CF to eliminate short hits.

  13. #70
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,898

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Was it a poor jump or poor positioning? Could it have been that he lost the ball off the bat or the sun was in an unfamiliar place? Was it a bloop or was it a ball that he took a safe rout because it was early in the game? Could Choo have caught it if he dove but didn't want to give up a potential triple or inside the park HR?

    Personally I think Choo played a very 'safe' CF. He played deep and opted to pull up on 50/50 balls that were sinking in front of him. Hamilton may be more inclined to get those. Hamilton's speed may allow him to play a different CF to eliminate short hits.
    Yep -- all of those questions are in lplay. And I agree on the "safe" play of Choo, especially after getting burned a few times on balls over his head early in the season. I think it's quite possible that the bulk of Hamilton's defensive value comes on preventing more of those singles that didn't even cross our mind as a "poor" play by Choo.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #71
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    7,810

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    So here's my question of the day, no right or wrong answer.

    I get that in reality, you really can't go back to 2013 and expect to find and prove 3 Reds losses on account of Choo's defense.

    But many, myself included, seem to have no problem projecting 3-4 more wins on account of CF defense going from Choo to Hamilton.

    What is the difference I'm missing?

  15. #72
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    355

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    So here's my question of the day, no right or wrong answer.

    I get that in reality, you really can't go back to 2013 and expect to find and prove 3 Reds losses on account of Choo's defense.

    But many, myself included, seem to have no problem projecting 3-4 more wins on account of CF defense going from Choo to Hamilton.

    What is the difference I'm missing?
    It's a question of identifying the particular games versus knowing that the games exist. Just because we can't pinpoint the specific games that Choo cost the Reds doesn't mean that those games did not happen; likewise, just because we won't be able to pinpoint which games Hamilton's defense wins for the Reds doesn't mean that those games will not occur.

    Of course, there is also the possibility that Hamilton comes up with a few Carlos-Gomez-Robbing-Joey-Votto-style catches, in which case it would be very easy to figure out which games were different because of CF defense. I would not mind that one bit

  16. #73
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,573

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Was it a poor jump or poor positioning? Could it have been that he lost the ball off the bat or the sun was in an unfamiliar place? Was it a bloop or was it a ball that he took a safe rout because it was early in the game? Could Choo have caught it if he dove but didn't want to give up a potential triple or inside the park HR?

    Personally I think Choo played a very 'safe' CF. He played deep and opted to pull up on 50/50 balls that were sinking in front of him. Hamilton may be more inclined to get those. Hamilton's speed may allow him to play a different CF to eliminate short hits.
    Choo may have played a "safe" CF, but when compared to his colleagues, defensive metrics suggest he played CF like a miscast, mediocre corner outfielder. We can debate cautious or deference all we want but he graded out as a player who was a defensive liability in center.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  17. #74
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,573

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    So here's my question of the day, no right or wrong answer.

    I get that in reality, you really can't go back to 2013 and expect to find and prove 3 Reds losses on account of Choo's defense.

    But many, myself included, seem to have no problem projecting 3-4 more wins on account of CF defense going from Choo to Hamilton.

    What is the difference I'm missing?
    UZR suggests that Choo's glove hurt his value by roughly 1.7 wins. Make him a neutral defender and the Reds win 92 games and still play the Pirates in the WC.

    Take away Choo the player and return to 2012 production in CF and the Reds win roughly 86-87 games. I'm not sure if that means they still play the Pirates in the WC or the Nats would've played the Pirates instead.

    Choo was a positive and his negative while diminishing the positive (like it was generally accepted it would) still wasn't a deal breaker. In fact, Choo the player was a heckuva idea.

    Choo in left and Hamilton in CF would've been great this season. But alas, he will now get to watch the greatness that is Beltre.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  18. #75
    Stat geek...and proud
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Paris, OH
    Posts
    2,489

    Re: Fangraph's 2014 standings predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    So here's my question of the day, no right or wrong answer.

    I get that in reality, you really can't go back to 2013 and expect to find and prove 3 Reds losses on account of Choo's defense.

    But many, myself included, seem to have no problem projecting 3-4 more wins on account of CF defense going from Choo to Hamilton.

    What is the difference I'm missing?
    You aren't really projecting wins... You are projecting runs converted into theoretical wins.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/4/14. I promise.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25