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Thread: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

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    Gapper Gapper's Avatar
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    Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Interesting read on Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections according to Baseball Prospectus

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ing-projection

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Yeah, that is interesting, but how do they come up with those projected numbers? I sure hope he hits better than that .245. I know he runs well, but he can't steal first base. I hope all his hard work in the off season pays off with some good on-base numbers.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    I hope he can keep his discipline at .067-.08 or so - then a .245-.260 average would look pretty good OBP wise.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    I'm betting Billy turns 60% of his singles into doubles (mostly by stealing) and turns 30-40% into triples (again, stealing). Choo couldn't do that

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Rando View Post
    I'm betting Billy turns 60% of his singles into doubles (mostly by stealing) and turns 30-40% into triples (again, stealing). Choo couldn't do that
    And Hamilton isnt going to get on base 274 times, have an on base % of .423, hit 21 HRs and OPS at .885. We will miss Choo a lot.

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    tomnuetten (02-26-2014)

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by indyscott View Post
    And Hamilton isnt going to get on base 274 times, have an on base % of .423, hit 21 HRs and OPS at .885. We will miss Choo a lot.
    No he won't hit like Choo did a season ago, but he doesn't have to be Choo. Now I agree we need to see an improved on base percentage from Billy Hamilton this year, but even last year the guy scored a lot of runs. When you break down the numbers Choo had a year ago

    569 At bats
    300 times on base
    107 runs scored

    That comes out to be about

    Every 1.9 at bats resulted in him getting on base
    Every 5.3 at bats resulting in a run
    Every 2.8 times on base results in a run

    When looking at Billy Hamilton we get the following

    523 at bats
    176 times on base
    84 runs scored

    Every 2.9 at bats results in him getting on base
    Every 6.2 at bats results in a run
    Every 2 times on base results in a run

    So while Hamilton may not get on base nearly as much as did Choo he does score at a much higher rate. If he can get to be even a .315 obp guy with plus defense he would be much closer to what choo did last year than you may think. If he really perfects his bunting and gets that obp even higher you may have an all star. I do agree however that's a huge if. We just need to hope Billy doesn't create enough outs to prevent the rest of the team from scoring runs.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    So you want to use his AAA numbers and translate that to ML pitching? Hmm OK

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    No I'm not saying what he will or will not do. No one knows at this point. The knock on Billy is his low obp . I'm just saying he will score much more often than another player with similar numbers, and will play a much better CF than Choo. IF he does get an on base percentage .320 or over he could be a very valuable player. If he struggles to get to .300 we may see him in AAA or coming off the bench

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    villain612 (02-24-2014)

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Billy Hamiton, would everyone be happy with Vince Coleman numbers, or heck even Dave Collins, at first he will struggle, give him a chance let him develop you never know right?
    Bowled 9 300 games, semi-retired!

    Nothing like bowling a 300 game

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Only time will tell how he adjusts to MLB pitching and defense....and how opposing pitchers/defenses learn his game and his tendencies.

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    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Ohioballplayer View Post
    Billy Hamiton, would everyone be happy with Vince Coleman numbers, or heck even Dave Collins, at first he will struggle, give him a chance let him develop you never know right?
    If Billy can put up Coleman or Collins hitting numbers I will be thrilled.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  15. #12
    Member Rando's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    He won't get on base as much as choo, but he will score more runs, especially since conservative Dusty isn't calling the shots. When Billy gets a hit he will be starting from extra bases nearly every time the next batter comes to the plate. Honestly, they'll end up being a wash and the whole Choo vs Hamilton debate will be the least of our concerns.
    Last edited by Rando; 02-13-2014 at 01:37 PM.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Run production will still be pretty low. Don't see a lot of rbi's coming from Hamilton. Of course, he's the leadoff guy. But, Carpenter produced a couple hundred runs last year. I don't see that from Hamilton any time soon.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    I can't wait to see Billy Blaze unleashed on the rest of the National League. Obviously, I have not seen everyone that has ever played in MLB, but I can't imagine that there has ever been a faster player. But you have to realize that this is not a sprinter in a baseball uniform. This man is learning the game. We're all in for a treat. This is one of the fastest professional athletes to ever be paid for sport, in a Reds uniform, learning to hit a curve. And, yes, he struggled at AAA last year but his history shows that he learns how to adjust. This could be something special. I'm ready to see what Billy can do.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    I don't disagree with Billy being very fast, but there have been many others I would consider right there with him or even faster.

    I think Eric Davis back in the day was faster. Same for Deion, Bo, and Tim Raines and the current day Andrew McCutcheon.

    Speaking of fast, I hated to the Derrick Robinson leave the Reds. Now, that guy could absolutely fly and he was a good defensive player as well.

    I'm hoping and praying that Billy's work in the off-season will result in some improved hitting. If he can get on base enough, he'll replace Choo's 100 runs scored.


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