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Thread: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

  1. #16
    Member BuckNaked's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Kai Slater View Post
    Yeah, that is interesting, but how do they come up with those projected numbers? I sure hope he hits better than that .245. I know he runs well, but he can't steal first base. I hope all his hard work in the off season pays off with some good on-base numbers.

    Oh easily will hit over .245, I bet he hits about .260-.270....include that with 80-100 stolen bases, the Choo loss will be a lot easier to swallow......We are going to be in the playoffs this year no doubt.
    Steven, nothing is higher than an architect.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Very interesting article. They sound pretty bullish on his projections.

    I am looking forward to seeing how often he can get on base.
    "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

  4. #18
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I hope he can keep his discipline at .067-.08 or so - then a .245-.260 average would look pretty good OBP wise.
    Hey redlegjake, I'm in North KC myself. Had enough of those radio commercials for Royals season tickets yet?

    quick edit, I'm not actually on the moon
    They don't think it be like it is but it do.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Honcho View Post
    Hey redlegjake, I'm in North KC myself. Had enough of those radio commercials for Royals season tickets yet?

    quick edit, I'm not actually on the moon
    I had so many questions...

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckNaked View Post
    Oh easily will hit over .245, I bet he hits about .260-.270....include that with 80-100 stolen bases, the Choo loss will be a lot easier to swallow......We are going to be in the playoffs this year no doubt.
    He didnt even his .245 last year against pitchers who will most likely make a career in AAA. And you still see him hitting .260?

  8. #21
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by CoachBombay View Post
    He didnt even his .245 last year against pitchers who will most likely make a career in AAA. And you still see him hitting .260?
    I can't speak for Mr. Naked, but I think he can hit better than .260.

    I don't understand why some believe it to be a foregone conclusion that because he struggled last year in AAA, he can't possibly improve. It's not like every player to come up through the ranks has been limited to their Minor League performance.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Kilgore_Trout View Post
    I can't speak for Mr. Naked, but I think he can hit better than .260.

    I don't understand why some believe it to be a foregone conclusion that because he struggled last year in AAA, he can't possibly improve. It's not like every player to come up through the ranks has been limited to their Minor League performance.
    I think the Reds will win the world series every year. But it just hasnt worked. I want Billy to succeed just as much as the next man, but I dont see him hitting .260. I think just doesnt make me very confident. Im going to go on a limb and say the majority of the pitchers he faced are never going to make it to the MLB. And even less than that will make the MLB he batted against the year before in AA.

    But him hitting .250 and anyone else hitting .250 are two completely different things. Once he gets on base, He changes everything.

  10. #23
    Member Kilgore_Trout's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by CoachBombay View Post
    I think the Reds will win the world series every year. But it just hasnt worked. I want Billy to succeed just as much as the next man, but I dont see him hitting .260. I think just doesnt make me very confident. Im going to go on a limb and say the majority of the pitchers he faced are never going to make it to the MLB. And even less than that will make the MLB he batted against the year before in AA.

    But him hitting .250 and anyone else hitting .250 are two completely different things. Once he gets on base, He changes everything.
    You're arguing semantics.

    Would it have been better had I said "I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Billy Hamilton will hit better than .260"? If so, then fine, I will predict that, though I'm about as sure that he will as you are that he won't. We will only know once they play.

    With that said, yes, I agree that Billy's .250 is better than most anyone else's .250. I just think he can do better than that.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    I think people are seriously underestimating Hamilton. Look at his track record over his minor league career. The kid learns and he learns fast. At each level, he starts out slow then comes on like a train. I think we have been brainwashed due to past experiences (Stubbs, Dunn, etc), into thinking that if they cannot hit they will never be able to hit. Hamilton seems to be the one guy who improves at each struggle or mistake. I expect great things from him come July and August. .230 by the All Star break. Average hits .260 by years end.
    Last edited by bullseye; 02-25-2014 at 07:09 PM.

  12. #25
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Honcho View Post
    Hey redlegjake, I'm in North KC myself. Had enough of those radio commercials for Royals season tickets yet?

    quick edit, I'm not actually on the moon
    I don't mind them...at least the Royals finally have an actual team and not just a collection of has-beens and rejects. They still have Glass-hole as an owner, though, so they better enjoy it while they can. He's no Castellini when it comes to payroll.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

  13. #26
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by bullseye View Post
    I think people are seriously underestimating Hamilton. Look at his track record over his minor league career. The kid learns and he learns fast. At each level, he starts out slow then comes on like a train. I think we have been brainwashed due to past experiences (Stubbs, Dunn, etc), into thinking that if they cannot hit they will never be able to hit. Hamilton seems to be the one guy who improves at each struggle or mistake. I expect great things from him come July and August. .230 by the All Star break. Average hits .260 by years end.
    I hope you are right that his learning curve is that fast.
    "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Kilgore_Trout View Post
    You're arguing semantics.

    Would it have been better had I said "I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Billy Hamilton will hit better than .260"? If so, then fine, I will predict that, though I'm about as sure that he will as you are that he won't. We will only know once they play.

    With that said, yes, I agree that Billy's .250 is better than most anyone else's .250. I just think he can do better than that.

    No. We just havent seen anything from him that would support that. How many times does a players average decrease from AA to AAA and then increase when he reaches the majors?

    Im just trying to find or use an educated guess to see where people might see him and I think he will do better than he did in the minors doesnt make me confident. Now If someone would have said, a problem in the past he had was X and since working on X you can see the difference in his swing.
    Last edited by CoachBombay; 02-26-2014 at 08:52 AM.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by CoachBombay View Post
    No. We just havent seen anything from him that would support that. How many times does a players average decrease from AA to AAA and then increase when he reaches the majors?

    Im just trying to find or use an educated guess to see where people might see him and I think he will do better than he did in the minors doesnt make me confident. Now If someone would have said, a problem in the past he had was X and since working on X you can see the difference in his swing.
    I think that's a fair statement. I've said it before, but I really think Billy Hamilton working on his bunting could go a long way. He wont bunt his way to Joey Vottoish on base skills, but look what it did for a guy like Derrick Robinson a year ago. A hand full of bunt hits over the course of a season and forcing the infield to play in could create a couple more cheap hits over the course of a season. It wont make or break him, but could add a .020 - .030 to the ol batting average.

  16. #29
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by CoachBombay View Post
    How many times does a players average decrease from AA to AAA and then increase when he reaches the majors
    Off the top of my head, this very scenario happened with Vince Coleman and Delino Deshields, two people Hamilton has been compared to.

    Coleman: http://thebaseballcube.com/players/p...=Vince-Coleman

    Deshields: http://thebaseballcube.com/players/p...lino-DeShields

    It was a bit more drastic in Coleman's case, but as you can see they both declined between AA and AAA, only to have better overall years in their rookie seasons in the bigs.

    Look, I agree that nobody should be entirely confident that Hamilton will play better in his first full year at the Majors than he did at AAA. But to say that it hasn't or can't happen is being a bit drastic. He's hit at every level but AAA where he was both adjusting to learning a new position and still adapting to switch-hitting. With some marked improvement and maybe a little bit of luck, it's not at all crazy to say that he can/will hit .260 or better.

  17. #30
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton's Baserunning Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I don't mind them...at least the Royals finally have an actual team and not just a collection of has-beens and rejects. They still have Glass-hole as an owner, though, so they better enjoy it while they can. He's no Castellini when it comes to payroll.
    He was an executive for Walmart after all.
    They don't think it be like it is but it do.

    Oscar Gamble

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